$SMH
What a setup going into September and a setup I would be very confident once that 600 level breaks. If we get that big bounce towards 600 into OPEX Friday it creates a clean I-H&S move with a measured move of 100 points. That brings SMH back over ATHs. Wait for that 600 break. If you don't Sept seasonality might rent you.
PT: 700 [Valid on a break and close over 600 on Daily for a mid term target]
$SPY $SPX
Not a lot of analysis other than being careful with options trading on size and volume. A few good opportunities in the market with CEOs identifying the bottlenecks and giving them a shout out. Jensen followed by Elon doing it for the market.
Currently SMH bearish divergence really smacking the market on Friday with a rising wedge break down and a huge dump across the market. To be truly bearish and open a 725-712 range on the price on SPY you definitely need 732 to break under.
Currently dont see 700 breaking down this year.
Watch for the news around what Trump Administration wants to do this week with the AI companies investment before they go public.
TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK: $ASML posted on my instagram already.
If you like my analysis hit the ❤️ and repost.
$SPY $SPX
Lot of signs of froth developing in the market as we enter the seasonally most weak month in the mid term election year. June supposedly is the worst with a monthly return of -2% on average. Just a caution sign to watch for rotation in defensive names in the market.
Last week we saw a clear shift in the market with the software running while Chips were resting a little bit. Most names that the President is mentioning are running recently so that is something that market is loving so keep your eyes open for what he mentions and can catch a run with options. $IBM $INTC $NOW $MU he has been on point.
Talking levels in the short term, with the momentum that the bulls have built any pull back towards the 9EMA has been a buying opportunity but also they have built a nice support line noted under at around 745 which will act as a strong support. When we revisit the trendline watch for volume to see if that is a dead cat bounce and can definitely play some puts based off the trendline break and the period to be cautious. For bulls to chug higher 758 breaks opens 763 and 767 this week. Although frothy there can be a little bit more of a push left in the market but after I will try to be more cautious. Size down bets as volatility increases. Currently in the mid term sense (End of Q3) I do not see 727 losing at all on SPY.
Bearish divergence on $SMH remains and I want to be cautious on that sector overall trickling down into the market. P.S: Caution does not mean I am looking to play Put on the sector.
TRDE IDEA OF THE WEEK: $CSCO will be posted with the video and targets on Instagram soon.
If you like my analysis hit the ❤️ and repost.
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Once you realize Iran has a tiny military, no nukes, no strong recourse but to raise oil prices $5, and also we likely traded non-participation in Ukraine with Russia's non-participation in Iran and that WW3 is highly unlikely and...
it's likely going to be BTFD time this week
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