Kaufman Development

AI-driven real estate & data centers | BTR & workforce housing | Design, development, construction & capital | @TheKaufmanCo

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

We turned a $655K RV park into a $9M+ asset — in under a year.

35 container homes. $70K/month revenue. Strong occupancy.

This is what scalable housing looks like. 🇺🇸

https://t.co/iPjKC1rCtZ

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

If you’re a developer or investor struggling right now, with costs, with capital, with just figuring out where to start, this post is for you.

My new post is live, and it’s the harder, more honest follow-up to what I wrote last week about showing up and doing work that matters.

This one is about the pivot.

After 25+ years in real estate, development, advisory, structured finance, over $2 billion in project value m, I’m changing direction. Not because the business stopped working.

Because I looked honestly at where the real problem is, and where I can actually be useful.
The answer was workforce housing. Impact development. The lowest-margin, most overlooked, most needed work in this industry.

But I also wrote this for the people in the trenches right now:

→ First-time developers trying to structure a deal with no roadmap
→ Investors who bought land at a bad basis and can’t make the numbers work at today’s rates
→ Operators doing workforce or affordable housing who keep hitting walls
→ Anyone trying to build something real in a market that has made it brutally hard

The numbers are ugly right now. Construction loans at 7–8.5%. $1.8 trillion in commercial real estate debt coming due in 2026. 94% of construction firms can’t find workers. And the best guidance in this business is locked behind $25,000–$50,000 coaching programs or relationships most people don’t have.

I’m not building a course. I’m not launching a mastermind.

I’m just opening the door. Real conversations, no fee, no pitch. Because I’m in a position to help, and I think this industry gets better when people who’ve figured things out stop hoarding it.

If any of this lands with you, the full post is here:
👉 https://t.co/gmf91EYfJX

And if you’re someone who’s struggling with a deal, a project, or just trying to figure out where to start, reach out directly. I mean it.

— Daniel

#RealEstateDevelopment #WorkforceHousing #ImpactInvesting #AffordableHousing #RealEstateInvesting #PersonalGrowth #Leadership

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Florida is not one market. And treating it like one is how capital gets destroyed.

I just published a new post on Substack — a deep dive into where I'm actually deploying in Florida right now, and where I'm deliberately staying away.

The short version:

✦ Jacksonville: 10% population growth, the second strongest job market in the nation per Moody's, cap rates at 6.5–7.5%, and multifamily transaction volume down 82% from peak. That's not a broken market — that's a buying window. We're kicking off an adaptive reuse project converting a former factory into apartments, and breaking ground on new affordable housing on an urban infill site.

✦ Orlando: Quietly diversifying beyond tourism into health tech, aerospace, and simulation. A structural shortage of workforce and affordable housing, and a downtown CRA actively creating opportunity for small-scale infill developers. We've reopened our office there.

✗ Miami: Ranked the #1 housing bubble risk in the world by UBS — above the 2006 peak. Insurance costs, condo assessments, and a 93% collapse in net domestic migration tell the real story.

✗ Tampa: Prices down 6% in 2025, condos down 12%, inventory at 5.4 months. The landing is harder than the headlines suggest.

The full thesis — with data, charts, and what we're specifically building — is on Substack now.

Link: https://t.co/ixJG7x4k3z

Would love to hear from anyone building or investing in these markets.

#RealEstate #FloridaRealEstate #AffordableHousing #AdaptiveReuse #Jacksonville #Orlando #RealEstateDevelopment #UrbanInfill

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Earlier this week I wrote about showing up, present, honest, and doing work that matters.

This is the professional side of that same conversation.

I’m making a major pivot. Wrapping up my large-scale projects and investments with the same care and commitment I started them with. And starting in 2027, going smaller. More focused. More intentional.

Through Oldivai, I’ll be doubling down on workforce and affordable housing in the markets most developers don’t bother with. Through Mr. Good Container Homes, I’ll be working on special projects — including an adaptive reuse development in Rumford, Maine — where creative problem-solving matters more than deal size.

And the ski industry thread I’ve been pulling on for years? I’m not dropping it.

The most honest version of where I want to go next isn’t bigger. It’s more meaningful.

The full post is here, including the why behind all of it:

https://t.co/tvdEsNYs1T

I’d genuinely love to hear from anyone working in this space, workforce housing, affordable housing, adaptive reuse, mountain town development. The best conversations I’ve had have always started with someone who gives a damn about something beyond the transaction.

#WorkforceHousing #AffordableHousing #RealEstate #Oldivai #MrGoodContainerHomes #SkiIndustry #SmallMarkets #ImpactInvesting

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Construction input costs climbed 6.2% between January and April 2026. That four-month move outpaced the cumulative increase of the previous three years combined.

Energy is doing most of the damage. Crude petroleum is up 61.8% year-over-year. Unprocessed energy materials up 48.9%. Natural gas up 27.3%. And those commodity spikes don't stay at the commodity level — they flow through steel, asphalt, glass, transportation, and every fabricator in your supply chain.

But here's the number that matters more than the headline: by the time construction inflation travels through a GC, their subs, the subs' suppliers, and four layers of stacked markup, most developers are absorbing something closer to 12–18%. The BLS index sets the floor. The industry's fragmented structure builds the ceiling.

I wrote about exactly this in the latest issue of The Daniel Kaufman Real Estate Development Report — what the data actually shows, why the layers matter more than the index, and how Kaufman & Company's vertically integrated model is built specifically to eliminate the cost-stacking problem.

This is the environment we're operating in. The developers who survive it will be the ones who control their own supply chain and tell their capital partners the truth about what things actually cost.

Full report here 👇
https://t.co/Yj596axKtf

#RealEstate #RealEstateDeveloper #Construction #CRE #Multifamily #Development #ConstructionCosts #VerticalIntegration #KaufmanAndCompany #DanielKaufman #RealEstateInvesting #CommercialRealEstate

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

“Conviction in our industry is usually just emotion wearing a suit.”

KeyCrew Journal ran a piece this week on how we read markets at Kaufman & Company — before the crowd catches up.
Florida exit. Bentonville early. Burlington, VT when nobody was looking.

The data was always there.

https://t.co/ta2Twkh1IF

What’s the leading indicator you watch that your peers ignore?

#Multifamily #RealEstateDevelopment #DataDriven

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Most multifamily investors are sleeping on the Upper Midwest.

Q1 2026 data says that's a mistake.

Chicago. Minneapolis. Kansas City. Supply discipline is paying off — tighter occupancy, fewer concessions, healthier NOI.

Full breakdown → https://t.co/wluMjoQHZR

#Multifamily #CRE #RealEstate

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Office foot traffic hit its post-COVID high in March. Every tracked market posted a YoY gain.

We hold Class A office in SF, LA, Chicago, and NYC. The data is validating the position.

SF +15.4% | LA +16.6% | National +4.2%
The bifurcation between Class A and everything else is accelerating. We positioned for this.

Full breakdown: https://t.co/j3ma8mvudS

#CRE #OfficeMarket #RealEstate #ReturnToOffice

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Private capital isn’t broken because of a deal shortage.

It’s broken because of a structure shortage.

We built https://t.co/nZ3m6fydgE to fix it — closed network, AI-powered underwriting, decision-ready deal flow delivered to qualified capital partners in real time.

100 slots globally. 27 remain.
https://t.co/nIuWMHLGJq

#PrivateCredit #AIFinance #CRE

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

California’s GDP hit $4.25T in 2025. 5% growth. 16 straight years of expansion.

The doom loop is a broker excuse and a media headline. The data is something else.

Latest Kaufman Development Report 👇
https://t.co/phG4VayBg0

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

25 years of building — and today it’s all in one place.

Kaufman Development. DanReDev. Oldivai. Kaufman Ventures. Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting. Convivium Living.

One platform. One strategy. Built to last.
We originate. We operate. We hold.

If you’re building something real — in real estate, infrastructure, or technology — I’d like to connect.

🔗 https://t.co/1iYQ3ogfDo

#KaufmanAndCompany #RealEstate #RealEstateDevelopment #WorkforceHousing #DataCenters #Infrastructure

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

New episode of The Kaufman Report is live. 🎙️

Episode 6: Fire the Middleman — A Developer’s Playbook for Self-Performing and Buying Factory-Direct

If you’re a general contractor, this one isn’t for you.

If you’re a developer who’s tired of watching 15–20% of your project budget walk out the door in GC fees, overhead, and quiet buyout spreads — keep reading.

This market cycle doesn’t reward the developer with the best location. It rewards the one with the lowest cost basis. And most developers are leaving millions on the table by outsourcing work and procurement they should own.

In this episode I break down exactly how we do it at Kaufman & Company — from standing up your own construction entity to buying direct from manufacturers. Category-by-category. No fluff.

Appliances. Flooring. Cabinets. Windows. HVAC. On a 250-unit deal, the procurement savings alone can run $2–4M.

I also cover the objections — from lenders, equity partners, and your own team — and how to handle every one of them.

25+ years, 10,000+ units, $2B+ in active projects. This is how we actually build.

🎧 Listen here → https://t.co/HC1UmQO4sn

#RealEstate #Multifamily #RealEstateDevelopment #ConstructionManagement #TheKaufmanReport #Podcast #VerticalIntegration #Development

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

The White House just confirmed what developers already knew.

10 million missing homes.

Not 3M. Not 7M. Ten.

The renter pool stays deep. BTR runway is longer than your model assumes. The ownership escape valve is shut.

Supply math doesn’t lie.

Full breakdown → https://t.co/0lDHJSuDlr

#Housing #BTR #Multifamily #RealEstate

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

The financing system for small residential developers has been broken for a long time.
You find a great deal. You run the numbers. And then you hit the wall — lenders offering 12% interest, four points up front, and terms designed to squeeze, not support.

That's the Shark Tank no one talks about. And it's exactly what Convivium Living was built to end.

At Convivium, we believe great developers shouldn't have to trade equity in bad deals just to get off the ground. We've built a platform that combines deep advisory expertise with institutional-grade debt and equity — the kind of capital that big players have always taken for granted, now accessible to the builders who actually create community.

We're not a broker. We're not a predatory lender. We're a partner.

If you're a residential developer tired of fighting sharks to fund your next project, we'd love to connect.

📧 [email protected]
🌐 https://t.co/dra8A6WdWg

🔗 Read the full press release: https://t.co/znZ29nIgNx

#RealEstate #ResidentialDevelopment #ConviviumLiving #RealEstateFinance #PropTech #HousingInnovation #SmallDevelopers #CommunityDevelopment

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Everyone's watching the same markets, following the same money, listening to the same voices.

New episode of The Kaufman Report is live — why the crowd is wrong, why second-tier cities are the play, and why the data always beats the noise.

🎧 https://t.co/SpFJSc61Zk

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Chicago. Miami. Wichita. Three of the tightest rental markets in America — and most allocators are missing it.

9 renters per vacancy in Chicago. 13 in Miami. Wichita just posted the biggest RCI surge in the country. Zero new units.
The national cooling narrative exists. It doesn’t apply everywhere.

Full breakdown: https://t.co/T7vij2Wx7j

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Most real estate narratives are built on lagging headlines.

This one isn’t.

I’m launching the Kaufman Real Estate Development Report to focus on what actually matters in this business, supply, demand, capital flows, and where the next opportunities are forming before they’re obvious.

The first report looks at something almost no one is talking about:

In 16 U.S. apartment markets, the development pipeline didn’t slow down.

It disappeared.

No units under construction. In some of the tightest markets in the country.

That’s not a headline yet. But it will be.

This is exactly where mispricing starts, when the data and the narrative diverge.

Read the full report here:
https://t.co/AFcxbiIzWF

If you’re a developer, investor, or operator, this is the signal worth paying attention to.

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Excited to share some big news.

We're expanding the Kaufman & Company platform — new acquisitions, AI-driven industrial development, and a nationwide growth initiative that reflects where real estate is heading.

A few things we're focused on right now:
→ Scaling our multifamily and workforce housing pipeline
→ Developing micro data centers on power-ready industrial sites to support AI infrastructure demand
→ Deploying capital across commercial, mixed-use, and fix-and-flip programs in the U.S. and Canada

Real estate is converging with technology faster than most people realize. We're building at that intersection.

Full press release in the link below. Would love to connect with capital partners, operators, and developers who are thinking about the same things.

🔗 https://t.co/VJYxIavwlA

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

Everyone wrote Austin off too soon.

After the pandemic boom collapsed into one of the steeper Sun Belt corrections, the narrative hardened fast: overbuilt, over-hyped, a cautionary tale.

I’ve heard that story before. And I know what the early innings of a comeback look like.

Elon Musk just announced TERAFAB, a joint chip and AI manufacturing initiative across Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, with Austin at the center of it. He’s targeting a 50x scale-up in global AI compute capacity. The facility anchors near the Gigafactory. State leadership is already aligned. Hiring has started.

The details are still thin. Musk’s timelines are famously optimistic. I’m not pretending otherwise.

But here’s what I know as a developer and investor: you don’t wait for the ribbon cutting. By the time the institutional herd reprices Austin back into consensus bullishness, the window is closed.

In my latest piece, I break down exactly what TERAFAB means for workforce housing, industrial, office, and for-sale residential, and where I’m looking right now.
https://t.co/LMR6c151Fq

[Kaufman Development @dkaufmanredev]

🎙️ Tune in — I'm headed to Multifamily Matters!

I had the privilege of sitting down with the team at Multifamily Now for a candid conversation airing March 23–27, 2026 on https://t.co/pDYga5KGNc.

We covered the topics I think about every single day:

📊 Why market narratives and underwriting reality are dangerously out of sync
🏠 Why renting is outperforming owning in today's affordability reset
📍 Where deals still pencil — even when risk is mispriced
📋 My disciplined 2026 playbook: supply dynamics, entry basis, stress-testing, and always buying with a true margin of safety

If you're a multifamily developer, investor, or operator trying to cut through the noise and make smart decisions in this market, I think you'll find this conversation worth your time.

🎧 Listen here: https://t.co/f7AyiCtBSz

#MultifamilyMatters #RealEstate #MultifamilyInvesting #HousingMarket #Multifamily