David Chan

Traveler. Builder. Architect. Airline miles hoarder.

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@AllVentured @DonMiami3 @AllVentured I am not a commodity trader to know the settlement mechanism but I did read there is “failure to deliver”. I understand that it eventually has to be settled but any color on how that factors in? Is it a synthetic/invisible short?

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@AllVentured Share your frustrations. Absolutely insane we are barely $10 bucks above where the war started

Interesting that $USO short positioning is over 100% (it is creeping higher even as of right now). I don't know if Israel will sabotage but everything about positioning rn is 🧨🧨🧨💣

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

Interesting. $uso shitting the bed but $xle holding alright for a brutal day in oil.

Energy cos had been cheap before the war, my fav $sm prints cash with oil at 60. Unloved story atm with cheap valuation, I’ll gladly buy here in case oil stays around 70-80, or Israel sabotages

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@ethanol_paul @VanIsleInvestor Its not, we should have 100 mm bbl of runway or around 12-15 week of draw at current pace. Exaggeration probably?

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@ethanol_paul @VanIsleInvestor SPR cant be drawn to 0 without destroying it… It is a salt cavern in Louisiana. The pressure of a drawn cave collapses it so the minimum is I think 220 mm bbl if I remember correctly. Maybe a bit less

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@GavMcCracken @GavMcCracken are you in the ceasefire collapse camp? Or market overly optimistic about reopening/reappearing China bid being the main driver going into summer?

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@CRUDEOIL231 Hey JH, appreciate the updates, being an energy bull has been painful this week.

Any thoughts on the flattening futures curve or the rumored China refinery bid?

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@AllVentured Are we buying more energy in this leg down? 🤔 God I am tempted, giving it a day or two to shake out some vol

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@PATCHnHrd So we get there in late August instead of end of June if 800k weekly draws remains the same. And I do agree oil people will be one of the best groups to adapt.

Which area has the most capacity to produce more domestically that can come online quickly? Permian?

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@CommodMkt Thanks for your work Jeff, learned a lot from your body of work over the last few months.

Is there any way this aversion to revert? Would it take physical shortages in segments of the market for money to come back? Are traders gone/swamped out actual users (IE refiners or gov)?

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@Nostre_damus

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@AllVentured Don't think there's anything in front of him other than whatever is in his imagination. But maybe I will be wrong... after 38 times of the same rodeo.

Bought more energy on the dip. Thanks Trump

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

Bought a bit more oil. Learned in politics to watch what people do, not what they say.

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@MacroEdgeRes Oh my god who could have ever imagined Iran isn't interested in more tongue flapping?

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@PurpleDrink_LLC just a hunch… but the middle of the venn diagram for $spce and $ccj might be pretty fucking gigantic🤔

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@GavMcCracken Stay frosty. All in due time...

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@GavMcCracken Full scale escalation = energy infra nuked. Long term lose for both US / Iran / globe.

Neither peace nor war = oil supplies run down, desperate US peace, high oil price export. Just takes time.

Probably stuck in this on and off for months. Late July/Aug maybe for price action?

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@WeirderRieces @DonMiami3 I don't disagree but there is a difference between financial-modeling fundamentals (which I am with you, it does not matter at all) vs whether I can get my hands on a tanker into a refinery or satisfy my futures contract delivery kind of fundamentals

[David Chan @dkavaichan]

@DonMiami3 Or are we in a world full of generalists and non-professionals where they are trading on narrative and have no idea what is about to come on fundamentals?

I mean, it's like living the timeline of the Big Short where they don't market-to-market until the shit REALLY hits the fan