David Lane

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@EYakoby I’m not sure he’s wrong.

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@bonchieredstate I doubt Trumps top concern is JD’s political fortunes. Trump will do what works for Trump and JD isn’t going to win anything without Trump’s endorsement. He still would likely lose a general election anyway.

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@ConceptualJames Great point.

[James Lindsay, anti-Communist @ConceptualJames]

Part of the huge disconnect about the deal, which is a recurring problem with Trump and normal people, is that Trump doesn't see the deal the way we see the deal. It's provisional and contingent to him. You can see this reflected in almost everything he says about it.

The reason for this is that Trump is extremely high-agency, and extremely high-agency people don't worry about making mistakes or whatever else and just do things that seem plausibly good and savvy, which Trump is also very good at.

They do this because they know if things go wrong, they'll just do something else because they're extremely high-agency and extremely confident in their abilities.

A good fighter doesn't get in the ring concerned about if the guy is going to fight in a way he doesn't really expect. He gets in the ring confident in his ability to fight and to adapt to the conditions he's faced with. He "goes according to the situation."

Trump is a good fighter. He goes according to the situation. He doesn't really care much about what's on paper beyond how he can use it in the current play to get advantage and the next play to gain another advantage, even if that means dropping the deal (and bombs).

It's extremely hard to understand this when you prefer guidelines, contracts, certainty. It's even harder to abide it when you feel like you, yourself, are stuck in a dangerous low-agency position with what appears to be a mad king making fatal errors that impact you and yours.

I said something like this yesterday to someone, and the reply was, "you're giving Trump a lot of credit." Well, yeah. Trump's earned a lot of credit, frankly, and in many cases it was by being extremely high-agency Trump while the world bit its nails and melted down ("Rocket Man, everything is gonna be alright... Rocket Man...").

I think it's a good time to breathe and let the man's agency work a bit. If it goes as badly as people fear, there's plenty of time later to hang it around JD's neck and seize a different victory from the jaws of defeat.

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@AuronMacintyre You’re right, It is Trumps party. Anyone who doubts this should ask Thomas Massie.

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@SteveDeaceShow JD will need the evangelical base to turn out in a general election. What percentage do you think will need to sit it out to make sure he’s never president? Just asking questions…

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@SteveDeaceShow “Win. The. War. At. Home.” JD is busy suggesting half the base are just war mongers, good luck with all that…

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@MarkDavis Unfriendly? You really think Megyn Kelly is unfriendly for JD? When you see him on Ben or Levins show, then I’d agree.

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@AuronMacintyre I’ve noticed you say “Israel” a lot🤔. People in Tulsa would probably wonder why you’re so fixated on “Israel”.

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@DougAMacgregor This is confirmation that there are absolutely no U.S. Drones in Cuba. Thank you.

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@AuronMacintyre That’s what he’s doing? Hopefully election night 2028 will work out for ya. My guess is you’ll once again be under the thumb of a communist, but hey, you won’t have those pesky “Ben Shapiros” to worry about.

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@KurtSchlichter That’s not really a question, the real question is, what will be done when it does fall apart?

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@KurtSchlichter @RonColeman Fine if Trump doesn’t want to do it, but why stop Israel in the process?

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@MattWalshBlog Fair enough, but what exactly do you imagine will be done differently? Maybe the Senate will now pass the Save Act?

[James Lindsay, anti-Communist @ConceptualJames]

My logic here all starts with his seemingly rogue comment about Iran keeping rockets and missiles, which has freaked out many, particularly Israelis and their supporters.

I'm betting the Gulf States are really uncomfortable, like Israel is, with that statement. They're not stupid. They're also targets, like Israel is. Less, but a lot, and the IRGC are crazy bastards. Makes me think Trump made it for them.

The thing is, they didn't do their parts and aren't yet. And Trump's definitely pissed at them because they straight up didn't help during the war (so far…). They wouldn't even let us use their airspace and tried to close down our own military bases. Trump didn't like that and didn't forget. No way.

So Trump letting them feel some legitimate heat that can be resolved by accomplishing his primary goals makes a lot of basic sense.

If we remember Trump's goals and work backwards, it's actually a little easier to see how this makes sense, even the MOU with it's big carrot/big stick arrangement that basically nobody believes will stick (thus terrifying Israel but, I'll bet, also those Gulf States). So what are Trump's goals?

1) Expand Abraham Accords;
2) KSA allying formally with Israel, which was happening until October 7 disrupted it, thus restoring a pre-10/7 peace agenda;
3) Increase their overall security dependency on US and Israel, thus shifting some of their "hand" in the region to us;
4) Standard Trumpism 101: Make them active participants in their own security arrangements, just like what he's doing with the EU and Pacific countries (no more America carrying all the weight).

The MOU itself creates conditions by which Iran becomes agentic in this. If they behave (they won't), they get rewarded, which they actually want, bigly. If they misuse that (everyone expects they will), they get a well-deserved stick. Everyone in the region feels this fear and is vigilant about it. If they misbehave (they will), they bring hellfire on themselves. This breaks the strangest force in the known universe: responsibility never sticks to a Muslim who behaved badly, never.

It's very high-risk, but this is a very high-stakes game, one of the highest in decades. The fears people have are real and justified, but Trump's got them priced in, I think. He knows he holds cards (B-2s, specifically) that let him adjust later if things don't work right, and by the number of times he's said so in the last 36 hours, I think he's well aware he'll be playing those cards at least sometimes. Tough shit for Iran.

I think we need to stop freaking out and let this develop. We need to see how it cooks and how the chef does with it.

Plus, I think he just hosed JD, and that's alright too.

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@hughhewitt JD will be blamed with our without Trump, rightfully so.

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@SteveDeaceShow @JDVance Did you happen to watch the ease with which he took down his straw-men? You know, the people who don’t agree because they want every Iranian dead. It probably applies to more than half of the base he’s going to need. Good luck with that…

[David Lane @dlmd80]

@joelpollak I used to think the answer would be obvious. Now not so much…

[Kosher @koshercockney]

F*cking hell 😂 gotta give it to the Israelis for laughing in the face of the ridiculous bullshit that’s thrown at them

[David Limbaugh @DavidLimbaugh]

It’s one thing to caution people to wait and see the actual MOU before judging, but it’s entirely another to gratuitously do an about face and turn on Israel. I don’t need to wait two seconds to react (adversely) to that.