The Bear Flag broke after the second major retest of the upper part of the channel, just as almost all of them have.
Take note of the swift moves to the downside after that happens. Usually price gets where it's going in 1 - 2 weeks.
Probably not the last one of these will see this bear market.
The bear flag has now broken to the downside!
That means it's time to start looking at lower prices that typically come very quickly after that happens.
The next support on the Volume Profile is 38k - 43k. This is also the cycle bottom target of Realized Market Cap and the Golden Ratio Multiplier.
But... the volume there is relatively thin, much more so than our current price. The next strongest block after that is 25k - 30k. This is the bottom target of the Magic Bands and Bear Bands.
42k seems very likely as the next major stop, which will probably take some time.
Expect that people will scream that the bottom is in on the next drop, as they have for the past two. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. The Halving Cycles Theory, which remains perfectly on track, says not until the end of the year.
Some additional visualizations to go with the video on Bitcoin drawdowns
Understanding wave degree in a corrective environment is critical
Realizing weaker rallies tend to suggest that momentum is changing is necessary
A weaker rally does not suggest future strength, it suggests weakening momentum
When momentum weakens, eventually the trend changes, regardless of the timeframe
This is not a guarantee. But it is evidence and follows Elliott Wave Principle, Hurst Cycle Theory, and other well known methodologies that have been used successfully for decades
People still refuse to believe that history is repeating and Bitcoin bitcoin:native is on the verge of collapse, despite the charts looking identical to 2022.
The bottom should be in October 2026 around $19,000
#Bitcoin Pattern worth watching 👀
Historically, #BTC’s bottom formed after 2 consecutive lighter red bars on the monthly logarithmic MACD histogram.
May hasn’t closed yet.
If history rhymes, the worst of the downside may already be behind us.
The cycle bottom target for the Golden Ratio Multiplier is dropping, currently at about 36k.
We're watching Level 1, which has been very accurate for previous cycle bottoms.
This is slightly below the Realized Market Cap bottom of 42.5k. I think the real answer is probably something in between.