America spent $285 billion to LOSE the AI war.
Stanford dropped a 423 page report yesterday and revealed the most damning stat on page 200:
The number of AI researchers moving to the United States has collapsed 89% since 2017.
80% of that collapse happened in the LAST 12 MONTHS.
Let that sink in.
The country that invented the transformer.
The country that built OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and xAI.
The country pouring $285.9 billion of private capital into AI in a single year (23x more than China).
Can no longer attract the people who actually build the technology.
And here's the part that should concern every founder, operator, and investor reading this:
The Trump administration just made it official.
The H-1B visa now costs employers $100,000 PER HIRE.
So OpenAI wants to hire a Chinese postdoc from Tsinghua? $100K before they write a line of code.
Anthropic wants a French ML engineer? $100K.
Google wants the Indian PhD who literally co-authored the paper their entire model is based on? $100K.
And these are the LUCKY ones who even get a visa.
The result was instant.
89% drop over 8 years. 80% of it in the last year alone.
The talent pipeline got destroyed.
Now look at the other side of the chart:
China's top model is now 2.7 percentage points behind Anthropic's best. Down from a 20+ point gap two years ago.
China leads the world in AI publications.
China leads in AI patents.
China leads in industrial robot installations.
US and Chinese models have traded the #1 spot multiple times since early 2025.
Switzerland and Singapore now have more AI researchers per capita than the US.
The US ranks 24TH globally in actual AI adoption. Behind the UAE. Behind Singapore. Behind countries most Americans couldn't find on a map.
And here's the truly insane part:
50% of the world's top AI researchers are Chinese. Jensen Huang said this on a podcast 3 weeks ago.
For 20 years, the US strategy was simple: Let them study at Stanford and MIT, then keep them. Pay them $800K. Give them green cards. Build the future on imported brains.
That deal is dead.
We just told the smartest people in the world: "Pay $100,000 for the privilege of working here, or go home."
And guess what they're doing.
They're going to Zurich, where Anthropic and OpenAI are quietly opening offices because they can't get the talent into San Francisco anymore.
The strategy is the same as building a Ferrari factory and then banning mechanics from entering the building.
You can pour hundreds of billions into data centers.
You can buy 4 million Nvidia chips.
You can sign $300 billion cloud contracts with Oracle.
You can build nuclear reactors to power your GPUs.
None of it matters if the people who write the algorithms aren't allowed in the country.
Wall Street thinks AI is a capex race. But in reality, it's a TALENT race.
Every dollar Microsoft and Meta and Google are spending assumes the same army of researchers will keep showing up to use it. That assumption just broke.
And the smart money already knows:
Why is Anthropic opening a Zurich office?
Why is DeepMind expanding in London instead of Mountain View?
Why is OpenAI hiring in Dublin and Singapore?
Because the math no longer works in America.
The government turned the world's biggest brain magnet into the world's most expensive border wall.
3 years from now, when China launches a frontier model that outperforms anything in the US and the headlines scream "How did we lose the lead?" - remember this post.
The lead wasn't lost in a lab.
It wasn't lost on a benchmark.
It wasn't lost to a smarter algorithm.
It was lost at customs.
Every major supply chain of the 21st century runs through 65 kilometres of water.
Not a metaphor. A measurement.
The Strait of Hormuz is 39 kilometres wide. The Bab el-Mandeb is 26 kilometres wide. Both are now contested by the same axis. Iran holds Hormuz. The Houthis threaten Bab el-Mandeb. Together they declared solidarity on March 26 with “fingers on the trigger.”
Here is what flows through those 65 kilometres.
Oil. Twenty to twenty-five percent of global seaborne petroleum through Hormuz. Another 12 percent through Bab el-Mandeb. Combined: one-third of the world’s oil.
Natural gas. Twenty percent of global LNG through Hormuz. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on March 24. Trains 4 and 6 are offline. 12.8 million tonnes per annum will not return for three to five years per QatarEnergy’s CEO.
Helium. Qatar produced one-third of the world’s helium as a byproduct of that same LNG. Spot prices have doubled. Samsung and SK Hynix have six months of inventory. After that, semiconductor fabrication slows. Every advanced chip on earth requires helium somewhere in its manufacturing process. There is no substitute.
Semiconductors depend on helium. AI training depends on semiconductors. Quantum computing depends on helium directly, cooled to millikelvin temperatures in dilution refrigerators. Post-quantum cryptography depends on the quantum computers that depend on the helium that came from the LNG plant that was hit by missiles fired from the country that controls the strait.
That is not a supply chain. That is a dependency chain five layers deep terminating at a single geographic coordinate.
Fertilizer. Qatar and Iran supply 20 percent of global urea exports. Urea hit $690 per tonne. American farmers are shifting from corn to soybeans because nitrogen fertilizer derived from natural gas is now unaffordable.
Internet. Ninety-five percent of global data traffic travels through undersea cables buried one to two metres beneath the seabed in those same two straits per TeleGeography. FALCON. GBI. EIG. SEA-ME-WE 6. AAE-1. FLAG. The IRGC threatened to cut them on March 28. The financial data connecting every stock exchange on earth runs through the same water as the oil tankers.
Money. Iran collected yuan tolls from vessels transiting Hormuz under IRGC escort per Lloyd’s List. The first non-dollar energy settlement imposed by force at a global chokepoint in the post-Bretton Woods era. Not replacing the dollar. Bifurcating it.
Rockets. SpaceX uses 10,000 to 20,000 litres of helium per Falcon 9 launch. The Starship that carries the Starlink satellites that replace the undersea cables threatened by the same axis uses autogenous pressurization because Musk saw this dependency before the war proved it. SpaceX is filing the largest IPO in history this week at $1.5 to $1.75 trillion. Filing into a war that validates every thesis that built his company.
Nuclear. Israel struck Ardakan, Iran’s only yellowcake plant, and Arak, its heavy water complex, on March 27. JSOC is planning contingency operations to seize 450 to 970 pounds of enriched uranium from underground tunnels per CBS and Axios. Three carrier strike groups, two Marine Expeditionary Units, and DEVGRU operators are staged for April 6.
Oil. Gas. Helium. Chips. AI. Quantum. Fertilizer. Food. Cables. Settlement. Rockets. Satellites. Nuclear weapons. The largest IPO in history. The birth of a parallel monetary system.
All of it through 65 kilometres of contested water.
The market has priced an oil disruption. It has not priced a civilizational chokepoint.
Full analysis: https://t.co/32ixeQpfif
The F-15 “friendly fire” claim is either *lie* or a US command failure. But something is OFF.
After talking to experienced military sources, here’s how we KNOW the reporting is cover:
* Kuwait uses three types of air defense system:
>Patriot
>Improved HAWK
>SHORAD
A SHORAD type air defense would not reliably take down an F-15.
An improved HAWK *could* hit an F-15 BUT because a hawk requires constant radar illumination, the pilot would be alerted to the lock by radar detection, could deploy chaff, activate ECM, and take maneuvers against it. So a hawk striking 3 planes is deeply unlikely.
The Patriot system can reliably strike targets like an F-15, and so we know it’s likely this was the system used.
* Patriot systems rely on multiple ID types to engage a target:
>Radar track behavior rules (it only shoots at things that act like a missile)
>IFF signature (a broadcasted automatic signature between fighter craft and ground systems)
>Link-16 (an integrated system for IDing friendlies in the air space, that is shared via integrated command)
>Air tasking order data (the equivalent of an issued flight route)
* F-15 broadcast an IFF that Patriot batteries can detect when the proper encryption key is shared with allies.
* Kuwaiti Patriot batteries support Link-16 integration with US data when properly shared.
* Our agreement with Kuwait to operate regionally requires sharing all Air Tasking Orders in their air space.
* After a single friendly fire joint emergency command orders would need to be shared with Kuwait.
In order for Kuwait to hit 3 F-15 with Patriot friendly fire in one night would require ALL of the following:
* We didn’t share IFF encryption keys or ID data with them, or were not broadcasting IFF.
* We did not share Link-16 data with them, or Link-16 broadcast capabilities were destroyed.
* We did not share Air Tasking Orders with them.
* We did not share emergency alerts with them after the first ejection took place.
* The area was under extreme barrage of missiles FAR more than reported.
* There was no AWACS data sharing, or no higher level C2 node integration, or these were damaged.
So either:
1) We made an operational decision to ignore our standard practices and leave an ally in the dark, not share data and risk American lives
OR
2) The Iranian attack was *far* more successful than the US let on, and damaged critical ID and comms infrastructure of US assets in Kuwait.
Either way, we are not getting the real story from the US side here.
People with contacts in Kuwait, or active command, should be asking serious questions about this blunder.
As it likely points to a gaping hole in US defense that puts our service members at serious risk!
BREAKING: Melania Trump humiliates herself on the world stage by chairing a United Nations Security Council meeting despite a total lack of diplomatic experience.
We've become the laughingstock of the entire world...
After calling the gathering to order with a bang of her gavel, Melania embarked on a string of rambling remarks that were ostensibly about how education is the key to "advancing tolerance and world peace." It was a truly Orwellian moment, coming as it does as her husband embarks on a war of naked aggression against Iran, a war that has already resulted in the bombing of a girls' school that killed at least 165 people.
"My heartfelt condolences to the families who have lost their heroes, who sacrificed their lives for freedom," said Melania, referring to the American troops who have come home in coffins thanks to her husband's pointless and illegal war.
"Their bravery and dedication will always be remembered. I extend my earnest wishes for a swift and smooth recovery to all those who have been injured," she added. "You are in my thoughts and prayers during these challenging times. The U.S. stands with all of the children throughout the world. I hope soon, peace will be yours."
This is an unprecedented appearance by an American First Lady and yet another sign that Donald Trump prizes loyalty and proximity to himself over competence. In fact, this is the first time that the spouse of ANY world leader has been allowed to take the president's seat on the Security Council. It sends a clear signal to the world that the United States is now little more than a nepotistic, tinpot dictatorship.
The truth is that we've had countless brilliant, qualified, thoughtful First Ladies in the past who could have performed this role at the UN. Melania is not one of them. She wants to play-act as the master diplomat, but history will remember her as a spineless coward who enabled the worst abuses of her fascist pedophile husband.
Please ❤️ and share if you think that Melania Trump is a disgrace!
NEW: When OpenAI announced its Pentagon deal Friday night, people immediately challenged Sam Altman's claims. Why, they asked, would the DoD suddenly agree to red lines when it had said it would never do so?
The answer, sources told me, is that it didn't. https://t.co/DkF9uWVHa4
The crypto community was looking for a savior; the Trump family was just looking for a new line of credit and saw an easy mark.
I’ve spent a lot of time putting this together because its important that people know the reality is much darker and uglier than the "pro-crypto" headlines suggest. My new piece, The Great Crypto Heist, is a full breakdown of how the industry didn't just get a seat at the table, it got taken over.
The article goes over all the moves that got us here: from secret half-billion-dollar deals with foreign royals to the cynical policy changes that traded away the industry's independence for a family revenue split.
If you want to understand how a movement built on decentralization became a private family ATM, and see exactly how they turned the entire crypto industry into a family grift, you need to read this.
@Jim_Jordan Yes, it’s always worse than we thought. What have you done to push Bondi and Patel to arrest any of the Epstein sexual abusers? Anything? There are survivors willing to testify but they have not been contacted by the DOJ. What have you done about this?
I wonder how a human being finds themselves sitting in that chair in front of the watching world in a moment of such gravity, so completely bereft of empathy, so seemingly unencumbered by other people’s suffering, and so strident in the face of simple accountability.
But as the father of a daughter, I want you to know that I fully detest what you are doing to so many other people’s children right now.
I abhor your callous disregard for the daughters who stood courageously before you today, whose eyes you did not have the dignity to look into; women whose cavernous hell you know full well, because you’ve pored over it countless times in words, photos, and videos.
It sickens me to my core to know that thousands of survivors, girls and young women not unlike my daughter, have experienced unspeakable horrors and are finding in you, not a fierce and willing advocate, not a steadfast warrior who will deliver them justice, but an unexpected, shame-throwing avatar of the men who brutalized them.
https://t.co/sKn8QLIzss
Congressman Jared Huffman, "If we're real and honest about what's going on, we have a madman in the White House"
"Trump is running the biggest most corrupt criminal grift in criminal history, out of the White House"
"We take an oath to the Constitution, but it seems all of you took an oath to Donald Trump"
"This is shameful, a disgrace"
"To pretend everything is just fine right now?"
"The madman is in Europe driving our friends into the arms of our adversaries"
"Trump is doing immeasurable damage to our credibility o the world stage and you are just fine with it?"
"What the hell is wrong?"
"I'm not going to just sit here and pretend everything is fine"
"This is wrong. This is not normal. And I'm not going to normalise it"
A bystander wanted to call this man’s wife and let her know what was happening.
The agents said “no”.
They took his food for themselves.
Food meant for his family.
It’s cruel lawlessness and we must all speak out.