David Barr

[David Barr @dmb8381]

@APompliano I’ve been listening to your content for years and have tremendous respect for how deeply you think through issues to form your opinions. If you think climate change isn’t a serious issue, I’m curious to hear your point of view and sources.

[Rajat Soni, CFA @Rajatsoni]

UNPOPULAR OPINION:

The US Dollar financial system is a PONZI SCHEME.

Heres why:

(THREAD 👇 SHARE THIS POST)

[Bruce Fenton @brucefenton]

So there’s lots of talk about the ETFs bringing in assets which buy up #Bitcoin & raise the price.

There’s something much more interesting. The financial advisors.

There are over 620,000 SEC/ FINRA licensed investment professionals (I’m one of them!) in the US, thousands of broker dealers and there are over 15,000 Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs).

How much money do these groups manage? Almost all of it.

Trillions of dollars.

Yeah yeah, we all know it’s deca millions of clients and lots of assets already.

But here’s the neat thing — these thousands of family office managers, brokers, financial advisors and RIAs are mostly not involved in Bitcoin or well versed on it. But they will be.

Things will change radically for several reasons:
- financial advisors follow the money and follow the trends
- advisors are smart about money / motivated to learn
- they need to keep up with what customers & the public is talking about
- there is pent up professional desire by advisors who like Bitcoin or are bit-curious but who can’t justify the time to focus on it due to focus on products they are allowed to offer & make a living from
- they like to make money and do well for clients
- they believe in well balanced /blended portfolios & the best advisors adjust for risk / hedge. Based on its performance & correlation with markets over the last decade, Bitcoin belongs in many more portfolios
- speaking of which, thousands of financial planning & asset allocation software products will add the Bitcoin ETFs so advisors can do analysis & add it to hypothetical and real portfolios

Here’s an even bigger one:
These big investment firms will spend billions marketing these Bitcoin based investments to their clients!

You think these companies are going to sit here hoping to win in assets after all this work? Nah. They are going to do what Wall Street does better than anyone: they are going to SELL these investments. They will have Chief Economists and experts and CEOs talking about this. They will have the best ads we’ve ever seen. The most sophisticated and well presented narratives. They will spend millions educating the public about why this makes sense as part of their portfolio.

The investment companies even hire what are known as wholesalers - these are like super salespeople who sell to the salesforce — they travel office to office with a blank check food & beverage budget meeting brokers, buying lunches and telling the brokers & financial advisors why they should put clients in this product. The wholesalers know the topic cold and are available to help on the high end sales. They also provide brokers with financial support, advertising materials, already compliance approved PPTs & mailers and educational materials.

Yes, the financial advisors will get up to speed on Bitcoin. They will have no choice.

And here’s where it gets exciting: as all these thousands of financial advisors learn about Bitcoin what will happen? Many will get it. They will see Ross Stephens and Saifedean and Saylor videos, they will read the books, they will follow crypto Twitter and go to conferences. They will get the narrative. Some will become true believers. The next great supporters and proponents of Bitcoin don’t even believe in it yet. In 10 years some billionaire may be saying “Man, I was late. I was at a big bank and not allowed to touch it until the EFT so I didn’t learn about it much until 2024…”

The reason this all can work like this is because Bitcoin is better money. It makes sense today, in these times.

There’s a lot of stupid things about the ETF and investors should buy Bitcoin direct and have control of keys whenever possible. There will be drawbacks of the ETFs and that’s a topic for another post.

Wall St and an army of high caliber financial professionals are here. I welcome my old colleagues from Wall St to meet my old friends in Bitcoin. Old friends and new. Buckle in. We are in for a ride. 🚀

[Mark Harvey @thepowerfulHRV]

#Bitcoin has risen by +153% in 2023 so far, but the setup for 2024 appears massive. I see five major catalysts:

1. The supply halving: The next Bitcoin supply halving is expected around April 2024. When the halving occurs, new coin issuance will drop from 900 per day to only 450. These new coins are issued to BTC miners who need to sell them to fund their operations. When the new supply issuance is cut in half in April, this selling pressure will be halved, significantly improving the supply/demand dynamics of Bitcoin overall.

2. Approval of spot #Bitcoin ETFs: BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, and Invesco alone manage a total of $16 trillion in assets. The SEC's approval of their Bitcoin ETFs appears imminent and will potentially unlock trillions of dollars to drive up the price of Bitcoin in 2024.

3. Fair value accounting rules for Bitcoin on corporate balance sheets: Companies in the S&P 500 alone hold $2.6 trillion in cash, which is like a melting ice cube on their balance sheets. Today, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) adopted Fair Value Accounting for #Bitcoin. Under the old accounting rules, Bitcoin was treated as an indefinite intangible asset, making corporate financials with Bitcoin on the books look bad optically. Now that the rules have changed, holding Bitcoin will become more appealing for corporations.

4. Fed pausing interest rate hikes and resuming QE: Interest rates are currently too high. The Fed is likely done with interest rate hikes and may be forced to lower them in 2024. When the Fed reverses course and lowers rates, it will become apparent to most people that the Fed isn't truly in control, potentially leading to a loss of credibility in commercial banking. This breach of trust with the public may naturally lead them to seek a stable alternative like #Bitcoin.

5. Muted 2020/2021 bull market: Markets often move contrary to people's expectations. Many Bitcoin bulls, including myself, anticipated Bitcoin surpassing $300k in 2020/2021, but it only reached $69k during the last bull cycle. This weaker bull market was influenced mainly by the FTX collapse, China's ban, and Fed interest rate hikes. As the previous bull market was relatively subdued, market expectations for a 2024 bull run are low.

[Will @WClemente]

Have a feeling there's gonna be a lot of people looking to understand Bitcoin soon, so would like to use my platform to point toward some of the educational content that was most helpful to me years ago:

- Bitcoin Whitepaper: https://t.co/8hdvPO558L
- Vijay Boyapati's "Bullish Case for Bitcoin" https://t.co/aMOa0k68oa
- Bitcoin First by Fidelity Digital Assets: https://t.co/TlR0OLTrSu
- Murad Mahmudov on Pomp's podcast: https://t.co/LfnxObmKMz
- Michael Saylor on Preston Pysh's podcast: https://t.co/ADVkm56Gz8
- The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous: https://t.co/PpELyQpihU
- The Price of Tomorrow by Jeff Booth: https://t.co/Wsr6sXFCo9
- Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio: https://t.co/y7nYNiNH1p
- Broken Money by Lyn Alden: https://t.co/ok1t7Grcx4

The Bitcoin rabbit hole runs deep, but strongly believe after consuming this content you'll never see the financial world the same.

[Mike Alfred @mikealfred]

Roughly half of all Treasuries outstanding today will mature by the end of 2025.

The current average interest rate on federal debt is 2.6%.

The current prevailing interest rate is over 5%.

If nothing changes, the US government will be forced to refinance this debt at roughly double the current rate, taking interest expense from 14% of federal tax revenue to 29%, or a whopping 22% of total outlays.

This is why I’ve been saying that the Fed’s higher for longer mantra is a complete bluff. Other governments around the world are tripping over each other to cut rates and print money because they can see the writing on the wall.

Rates will need to come down rapidly or the US government would have to raise taxes and cut spending aggressively but we all know that won’t happen.

So, we’re back in the same place. Debt, deficits, and monetary debasement. It’s a virtual certainty.

You might want to get some Bitcoin in case it catches on.

[David Barr @dmb8381]

@EmotionRenew @MDBitcoin But I’m cautious to predict where the price is going in the short term. I’m always prepared for the price to drop 70%. So my words of caution to the community is to be long term optimistic, yet cautious by these predictions in the short term. Just know that time is your friend.

[David Barr @dmb8381]

@EmotionRenew @MDBitcoin I’m very curious and intrigued about the bull multiple. It’s never constant and will continue to fluctuate. It’s a fun brain exercise trying to predict where the price will go based on expected inflows and the subsequent outflows. I’m incredibly bullish, as I’ve been since 2019.

[David Barr @dmb8381]

@MDBitcoin While your prediction is possible, other credible predictions are much more conservative. Large capital inflows take time. As a community of bitcoin investors, we need to be careful managing expectations of the timing of price appreciation. It could take longer than expected.

[David Barr @dmb8381]

@AdamSchefter Poor guy. Maybe a massage will help

[David Barr @dmb8381]

@KovatsMultiFam QE will happen when it is necessary to save the system from imploding. It’s hard to imagine that won’t happen within the next 2 years once we hit a recession and the commercial real estate bubble pops, leading to a wave of bank failures and insolvent pension funds. Figure $10T+

[Satoshi @satoshimoneybtc]

🇦🇷Argentina's Peso has declined 99% since 2000.🚨

Is this time different to other currency collapses?👇

Roman Denarius:
📉-90% decline in 150 years📉

🇬🇧British Pound
📉-98% in 98 years📉

🇺🇸USD:
📉-97% in 110 years📉

🧵Are we living through the ‘’suddenly’’ phase of a global currency collapse & what comes next?🌎

History suggests the 2020s are going to be wild because of these 3 same steps that’ve repeated in most prior currency collapses:

⭐️Step 1.
Consuming more than you produce.

The chart below shows how the Roman denarius slowly collapsed over 500 years, but the decline turned exponential once the debt became unmanageable.📈

The empire was simply consuming more than they were producing, & had too many bills to pay…

Kind of sounds like what we’re facing today?

America's suffering from $32T in debt today, with over $160 trillion in unfunded liabilities promised in the future that needs to be paid...

Once you've got too much debt, you're left to proceed with step #2...

⭐️⭐️Step 2.
Debase the currency & pay debts with devalued dollars.

Rome went through a 150-year time of EXTREME debasement trying to fund its uneconomical expansion.

🟢100AD-95% silver content
🔴250 AD- 5% silver content
📉A 90% decline in 150 years📉

America has seen something similar.

They’ve heavily debased their currency to fight ongoing wars around the world, trying to maintain the Petrodollar system.

The USD has lost 97% of its value since the creation of the Fed.🇺🇸

🔴A $100 bill from the year 1913 is now only worth $2.74 in the year 2023.
📉A -97% in 110 years.

The British Pound is the longest-lasting fiat currency of all time, and between the years 1790 & 1910, £300 Pounds held its purchasing power of £300 Pounds...🇬🇧

🔴HOWEVER, if you had -£300 Pounds from the year 1910, it was only worth £5.08 Pounds in the year 2012.
📉A 98% decline in 98 years.📉

⭐️ ⭐️⭐️Step 3.
The inevitable collapse of the currency comes & a loss of power.

As an empire witnesses its currency go through an exponential period of debasement, their empire typically collapses…

While the Pound hasn't collapsed yet, it's close, having lost 99.9% of its value since 1200AD.

The UK was the dominant global hegemon during the 19th century, but have already lost the global reserve currency to the US Dollar.

-The USD appears on a knife's edge, as it's facing the biggest loss in faith since the 1970s inflation and Nixon shock.🇺🇸

The US is still holding onto power as the global reserve currency, but the BRICS are making a serious challenge to their reign.🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦

-The collapse of the Roman Denarius silver coin led to the collapse of the most well-known empire in history.

Following the collapse of Rome, Western civilization endured a 1000-year period of pain in the ''Middle Ages.''

However... we emerged triumphant once more, as technologies like the Printing Press emerged in the 1500s.

Coincidentally, many areas of the EU began using a gold standard, which led to a renaissance and ‘’age of enlightenment in the 1600s.

What fueled the 1600s Renaissance & technological miracles of the 18th & 19th centuries...?

Sound money!

🌎The time has come for a digital, sound money renaissance, to save our world from entering a modern day dark ages.🌎

Do you think we're living through the ''suddenly phase'' of a global currency crisis?👇

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

US Inflation Rate (CPI), YoY % Change...
Jun 2022: 9.1%
Jul 2022: 8.5%
Aug 2022: 8.3%
Sep 2022: 8.2%
Oct 2022: 7.7%
Nov 2022: 7.1%
Dec 2022: 6.5%
Jan 2023: 6.4%
Feb 2023: 6.0%
Mar 2023: 5.0%
Apr 2023: 4.9%
May 2023: 4.0%
Jun 2023: 3.0%
Jul 2023: 3.4% (Cleveland Fed estimate)
Aug 2023: 3.9% (Cleveland Fed estimate)

[David Barr @dmb8381]

@KovatsMultiFam You don’t think the Fed will fill the gap and buy more bonds? There are no good solutions, but I think we’re headed for yield curve control.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Every major asset class was positive year-to-date through July. Asset class total returns since 2011...

[David Barr @dmb8381]

@KovatsMultiFam I completely hear you. Logic isn’t part of the equation with her.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most important charts and themes in markets.

Join here: https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ

[David Barr @dmb8381]

@WillieBeakman @KobeissiLetter @Dave_Roq I hear you Willie. It’s certainly not ideal. The cost of living has exploded recently and I don’t think it will slow down. If you can swing the monthly payment, in most circumstances you’ll be much better off in the long term by buying versus renting.