dmon

One trade. One win. That’s all it takes.

[dmon @dmonalpha]

Native options are inevitable if Hyperliquid is going to become the house of all finance. This isn’t even a question.

[MB.hl @MBxxvv]

There’s growing speculation that HIP-5 could bring native options trading to Hyperliquid.

HIP-4 introduced the framework for outcome contracts, allowing markets to trade bounded payoffs tied to specific events or conditions.

That matters because it expands Hyperliquid’s infrastructure beyond traditional perpetual futures and creates a potential foundation for more sophisticated derivatives.

Options would represent another significant step.

Unlike perpetual futures, traditional options give traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price.

They introduce entirely different strategies around volatility, hedging, downside protection, and risk management.

For Hyperliquid, native options could open the door to a broader derivatives market and attract participants whose strategies aren’t adequately served by perpetual futures alone.

So where does HIP-5 fit into this?

The community has been discussing options as a potential next major upgrade, but there hasn’t been an official confirmation that HIP-5 is the designation for native options.

There’s also a separate community proposal circulating under the HIP-5 name involving a second Assistance Fund for ecosystem token buybacks. That shouldn’t be confused with the options speculation.

The bigger picture is that Hyperliquid is steadily expanding the types of financial markets its infrastructure can support.

[jeff.hl @chameleon_jeff]

Thanks to everyone for coming out to yesterday's event! Huge shoutout to @Valinorae for fulfilling a grand architectural vision down to the smallest details, @jaygee_hl for the top tier execution and coordination, and @iliensinc for the tireless work behind the scenes. Also thank you @RitzCarlton #Singapore for going above and beyond and for your warm hospitality. The community and ecosystem are deeply grateful to you all for putting on the best event that I and many others have ever experienced.

It's incredible to see how far Hyperliquid has come and the momentum with which the ecosystem is growing. Looking forward to another year of building alongside the ever-growing community.

[jeff.hl @chameleon_jeff]

1/ Huge respect for Dragonfly continuing to invest in the bear market.

But I'm morally obliged to call out sketchy projects gaining momentum.

As a community we must preempt large scale implosions like #FTX or #LUNA that set the industry back years

Bitget may be the next FTX 🧵

[dmon @dmonalpha]

@chameleon_jeff Hyperliquid

[jeff.hl @chameleon_jeff]

Most tech giants in the 2000s built their infrastructure and product as one entangled unit. Amazon had the foresight to separate out AWS as an API layer, of which Amazon retail was the first of many users. Today, AWS generates more profit than all of Amazon's other business lines combined.

Hyperliquid is built with the same philosophy. Housing all of finance requires thoughtfully designed, open financial primitives. Each primitive should obey the Unix principle of "Do one thing and do it well." Talented builders then have the foundation to chain these together to create magical applications.

HyperCore borrowing is an example to highlight this philosophy in action.

Most other platforms implement portfolio margin by marking an account's collateral to market value with an LTV haircut, creating borrowed assets without an explicit lender. This system is simpler to implement, but misses a golden opportunity for composability.

Hyperliquid instead begins with a borrow/lend protocol on HyperCore. Every borrowed asset is sourced from a supplier, so risk is isolated within the borrow/lend primitive instead of platform-wide. HyperCore's portfolio margin system is implemented as an orchestration layer that composes borrow/lend, with other primitives such as perps, spot, and outcome trading.

This decomposition has several nice corollaries:
1. Today's announcement of manual borrowing is not a new feature, but simply an extension of the underlying primitive. Borrowers on day one have access to 400M and growing of supplied liquidity.
2. Portfolio margin users earn interest on their idle stablecoin collateral. This is not a new feature, but a natural byproduct of composing trading with lending.
3. System safety is easier to reason about when perp and borrow/lend margining are independent.

In the same way that math theorems almost prove themselves when the right abstractions are defined, composable designs just feel right.

[dmon @dmonalpha]

Something big is coming.
$HYPE

[WallStreetBets @wallstreetbets]

BREAKING: X now lets US users trade stocks and crypto through Cashtags, with Gemini and Kraken as launch partners

[dmon @dmonalpha]

Nasdaq

[dmon @dmonalpha]

US

[dmon @dmonalpha]

$HYPE $100 coded.

[U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission @SECGov]

🚨 TODAY: The SEC issued an order granting temporary, conditional exemptive relief to Tokenized Securities Venues from the definition of “exchange” in the Exchange Act to trade tokenized NMS stock using innovative permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools.

[dmon @dmonalpha]

@alex_hunter20 Wow, this is literally one of those trades I’ve imagined pulling off at least once.

[Henrik @Henrik_on_HL]

Hyperliquid will win

[dmon @dmonalpha]

Nasdaq

[dmon @dmonalpha]

hyperliquid
hip-3
coinbase, kraken
hip-3*
grok
what next ?

[dmon @dmonalpha]

hyperliquid
hip-3
coinbase, kraken
hip-3*
grok
what next ?

[Coinbase 🛡️ @coinbase]

Grok just learned how to Coinbase.

[dmon @dmonalpha]

@loraclexyz @vladtenev You win.

[dmon @dmonalpha]

@SageWhale A year ago, I was thinking about cashing out at $80 and retiring. Not anymore.

[dmon @dmonalpha]

Will there come a time when simply holding $HYPE is enough to qualify for airdrops?

[dmon @dmonalpha]

@theunipcs People just need exit liquidity.

[jeff.hl @chameleon_jeff]

1/ Controversial take: hard work is more important than smart work.

It's a myth that we only have a few hours of good creative work per day. Train yourself to grind long hours first. You will surprise yourself. The work naturally become higher quality, less distracted.

[dmon @dmonalpha]

What if future airdrops were distributed to new U.S. users entering this market?

[Alex @alex_hunter20]

Here’s my thesis on HYPE’s price over the next few months, keeping it as rational as possible.

How do we do that? By focusing on revenue.

We know more and more TradFi players are getting involved in $HYPE. These players value stocks using P/E ratios and I think that’s exactly how $HYPE is being valued. It isn’t trading like any other major or revenue-less altcoin like $ZEC etc. Otherwise, we’d already be at $300 given all the insane news we’ve had so far.

With that in mind, here’s my thesis:

I still believe there will be another airdrop. And I’ll keep believing that until the team changes the tokenomics, which explicitly state that the community will be rewarded again.

Based on that, I’m estimating the next airdrop at around 6–8% of the total supply, worth roughly $6–8B at $100. Of that $8B, I expect a decent chunk to be used as collateral to borrow USDC. Somewhere between $1B and $2B in borrowing doesn’t sound unreasonable to me.

That would mean at least $2B in USDC being minted on Hyperliquid, before even accounting for people who simply sell instead of borrowing. We could potentially reach $10B in USDC held on Hyperliquid pretty easily.

$10B in USDC would generate $314M in annual revenue (almost 50% more revenue on top of the roughly $700M annualized we’re doing right now).

Then there are the CEX integrations: Kraken, Coinbase, and probably others. Those integrations would bring more people trading on HL which also means more USDC held on HL.

That could easily take us to $15–20B, depending on the integrations and how much traction they get. That doesn’t seem far-fetched at all.

At $20B we’d be looking at $628M in additional annual revenue, almost doubling what we’re generating today.

While $HYPE has been pricing in some of this revenue growth over the past few weeks, imo it’s only pricing in the USDC already held on HL.

On top of that, we’d have trading fees from users accessing HL through CEXs. That could be huge too.

It’s hard to estimate, because we know CEXs heavily fake their reported volume, liquidation, and other stats. But Hyperliquid averaged $8B in daily trading volume over the year, including around $7.7B in perps and $320M in spot.

Doubling that really doesn’t seem like a stretch with Kraken and especially Coinbase. And that’s before any other major exchanges join the party.

If volume doubles, assuming the same effective fee rates, trading fee revenue would double too. That would put us at $1.3–1.4B in trading fee revenue + $1B from AQAv2, for a total of $2.3–2.4B in annual revenue (roughly 3x what we’re generating today).

We could also add HIP-4 revenue if it takes off and starts generating meaningful fees, along with priority fees, which could scale massively (particularly from arbitrage between HIP-3 star order books and the standard order books on HL.

But even without those last two factors, we’d already be looking at roughly 3x current revenue.

That’s why I think $HYPE could easily hit $200 over the next few months, driven by these integrations alone, without needing market euphoria or an absurdly inflated P/E ratio.

And I’m not even talking about long term price targets, with HSI very likely to keep accumulating supply, the Assistance Fund doing the same and so on.

You’re not bullish enough.

Hyperliquid.

[dmon @dmonalpha]

@MavenHL I still respect him, but I’d respect him even more if he hadn’t sold his hyperliquid:native.