Danny Moses

Investor (looking for the next Big Short)/Inventor (BlackJack Side-Bet Games)/Skeptic (student of Behavioral Finance)/Hedonist; not Investment advice

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Always great to sit down with @pboockvar & get his thoughts/views on the markets. We had a @Kalshi speed round near the end of the episode regarding the U.S. economy and how it might look at the end of 2026. $MU $GLD #FED $FXI #OIL #Commodities $WMT

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

Are we overthinking this market or not thinking enough?

@dmoses34 & @pboockvar tackle yields, housing, the Fed, and China's growing tech threat on the latest episode 🎙️

YouTube: https://t.co/RWBO4NgIs7
Apple: https://t.co/WbI0TpXnrW
Spotify: https://t.co/t9izy5VFhy

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

The second Anthropic filed to go public, @dmoses34 went straight to @Kalshi 📈

We also have action for tonight's NBA Finals Game 1 🏀

Go to https://t.co/objYZ32S4Y or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Great to have @Convertbond back @OnTheTapePod. We discuss why he still likes $NUKZ and why the gold miners ($AEM) are primed for a move higher. We discuss $SRUUF and his bullish views on uranium. We hit #AI #FED #OIL #INFLATION $HD $MCD and more.

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

Lawrence McDonald is teaching us how to listen when markets speak!

@Convertbond joins @dmoses34 on this week's pod to talk about the Fed, energy shocks, World Cup travel implications, gold miners, uranium and upcoming mega-IPOs

YOUTUBE: https://t.co/8r5L92g7Zi
APPLE: https://t.co/d5PbyCzoDF
SPOTIFY: https://t.co/UUOCNYe9aA

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

We wrote a note on Substack: "How I Use Kalshi" (for both information & trading). Infrastructure is being put in place to allow Institutional Investors to begin trading event contracts & we run through a few trading scenarios.
@Kalshi @Seawolfcap @VD718

https://t.co/tbDrZj5pWj

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

The narrative is rapidly shifting from “sports” and “retail” to the “institutional” market and these volumes (futures) will only feed on themselves

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

Perpetual futures are finally coming to America.

Trade on future asset prices with leverage in a regulated, institutional-grade environment.

Only on Kalshi.

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Special guest on today’s WAWD “Friday Night Dirty” @KeithMcCullough joined @Seawolfcap @VD718 and myself to discuss the markets and the @Hedgeye investment process. Yale Hockey vs Brown Rowing!

https://t.co/XaMBeecp0g

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Let’s go @Mets…I can’t think of a better candidate to be GM if the opportunity presents itself!

[Vincent Daniel @VD718]

Huge thanks to @dmoses34, Melissa and the Fast Money crew for the monster shout out! Agree @GuyAdami, my Mets need help

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

I think the most misunderstood aspect of trading @Kalshi is that you don't need to wait for the "event" to occur to make money. Both contracts this week fall into that category. Place limit orders (GTC) at whatever price you want. The @PGAChampionship is a perfect candidate.

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

📈⛳️🏌️‍♂️Danny's @Kalshi picks of the week are here!

Will the S&P 500 hit 8200 this year? @dmoses34 doesn't think so!

We also go "bottom picking" for a nearly 70x flyer for the PGA Championship at Aronimink.

Go to https://t.co/muA24snP4A or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

We (@Seawolfcap @VD718) reunited w/@CarterBWorth for another edition of "Bourbon & Charts". Some interesting takeaways as the "Chart Master" did his thing. We took ticker requests from https://t.co/z8y8YPacZc & then the bourbon kicked in: $SOXX $NVDA $XRT $CCJ $PCT $CF $FLUT $GLD $SLV $XOM $NKE $CVNA and more....

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

Bourbon & charts returns 🥃📈

@CarterBWorth joins @VD718, @Seawolfcap & @dmoses34 to break down the most extended semis chart since the dot-com bubble and what it might mean for what comes next.

WATCH: https://t.co/bY020rRjQo

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Seeing Morgan Stanley now on the cap table, and with the proceeds being used to accelerate "Institutional" growth, it's just a matter of time before event contract volume in financial markets exceeds that of sports-related event contracts @Kalshi. Happy Birthday @mansourtarek_

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation led by Coatue, with participation from Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, a16z, and others.

In 2018, we were two kids who loved math, markets, and debate. And we had a dream: build the next generation financial market, where we capture a broader set of questions and harness the power of the masses to price them better than Wall Street.
Kalshi was born to fulfill that dream.

Today, most of these questions are traded indirectly, priced through imprecise proxies or negotiated bilaterally in opaque, restricted, relationship-driven markets. But thanks to our incredible community of users who make our markets work, Kalshi has the opportunity to change that by turning historically fragmented and untradeable risk into open, liquid, and standardized markets.

We’ve seen this movie before. When interest rates, currencies, commodities, and crypto moved from dark to lit markets, volume did not just migrate: access expanded, new use cases emerged, and the opportunity grew by orders of magnitude.

Today, Kalshi represents over 90% of US prediction market volume and the majority of activity globally, with annualized volume growing to $178B over the past 6 months.

What started as retail is quickly becoming institutional — hedge funds, asset managers, prop firms, and insurers are beginning to trade, provide liquidity, and hedge real-world risk directly. The scope and scale of prediction markets are just beginning to take shape.

We’re using this new capital to accelerate the institutional adoption underway — unlocking trillions in capital to facilitate active trading and risk management.

Prediction markets are moving from early adoption to core financial infrastructure. This is just the beginning.

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Always insightful, @profplum99 shares his thoughts on several topics, including the "rule" changes for index inclusion (equities & fixed income), what Warsh is stepping into at the #FED, & his views on the markets. I give out my @Kalshi picks: $GLD #FED & thoughts on GME/EBAY

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

Has passive investing "crossed the Rubicon?"

Markets at all-time highs, a Fed in transition, and index rules quietly being rewritten. @profplum99 returns to On The Tape with @dmoses34 to explain why everything you thought you knew about passive flows may be changing.

YouTube: https://t.co/EV9AMjR81u
Apple: https://t.co/0nqa7SNgwC
Spotify: https://t.co/awUnr8bBBj

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Just a reminder, that when $XOM updated its 2030 Corporate Plan last December, they assumed $65 Brent. @GuyAdami asked me if I still liked it here given the move. There will always be timing (hedges/deliveries & production) issues, but the answer is yes.
https://t.co/Pfyp1oeCZD

[RiskReversal Media @RiskReversal]

New pod in your feed this morning with @GuyAdami and @dmoses34 🎙️

🏦 Future Fed Chair Warsh Challenges
🛢️ Surging Crude, Market Resilience
💹 Rising Global Yield Concerns

Watch or listen now⤵️
YouTube: https://t.co/ZT50SGUH88
Apple: https://t.co/tStqaQZbnk
Spotify: https://t.co/Iwwx4CEeL8

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

@ParmMannTrader https://t.co/iyAKCY8Mqk

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Fresh off the @NFL Draft, @RealTannenbaum shares his thoughts & we hit other topics, including what he's been building @The33rdTeamFB; "The most exciting two minutes in sports" & @StarlightRacing has two horses @KentuckyDerby & I preview the race; @Kalshi picks (8+ @Giants wins)

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

New pod in your feed this morning!

@dmoses34 is joined by @RealTannenbaum, Former Jets GM/Founder & CEO of @The33rdTeamFB🎙️

🏈 Draft recap & the biz of football in 2026
🏇 Kentucky Derby picks!
🏦 Updates on our Powell @Kalshi contracts

YouTube: https://t.co/WWoKfIgRyg
Apple: https://t.co/MGoX3nCf2k
Spotify: https://t.co/7A4WawAQKV

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

While everybody is focused on "sports" being the volume driver for Prediction Markets, the Institutional trading world is a bigger arena. This shift is inevitable and the trade (below) is an example of what is on the horizon...

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

The historical bottleneck for institutional risk transfer is liquidity.

The bottleneck for liquidity is having a price benchmark for each relevant risk (eg. WTI for oil).

Kalshi has built a large community of superforecasters who are the best in the world at pricing risk. This enables us to have a price benchmark for a much broader set of questions that people and institutions face.

Institutional adoption has started through ingesting these price benchmarks into traditional asset pricing model. While there is more work to be done, we're seeing a rapid expansion of data use-cases and integrations.

The next phase is using price benchmarks to offload risk through block trades and RFQ. This phase is in its early innings but it's starting to take shape.

It is hard to estimate the size of the market for risk transfer on non-traditional financial underlyings. The closest proxies are the re-insurance market and derivative desks at banks:

- re-insurance ~700B
- insurance-linked securities and parametric insurance (eg. cat bonds) ~$120-135B
- bank derivatives (structured products, dealer-to-dealer, exotics, etc.) ~200-400B

The current market is in the 1-1.5T range, but it's mostly illiquid and over-the-counter (OTC ie. you're trading against one counterparty).

Every time a major OTC market moved to exchange-traded, the market grew because a price benchmark got established, big-ask spreads collapsed, access stops being gated by Wall Street elites, and entirely new classes of participants enter: interest rate swaps (10-15x), equity options (20-30x), energy derivatives (5-8x).

The institutional use case for prediction markets could be a 10-15T market, with upside beyond that depending on how much they democratize access to products that are currently exclusive to Wall St.

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

No idea why the June contract is still trading around 60 cents. Powell only has to announce his “intention” to resign as a Fed Governor and, according to the rules, as long as the proposed date to resign is within a year, then the contract resolves to YES ($1)

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

Well this aged well!

The weekend is off to a great start for anyone who followed @dmoses34 on the "Jerome Powell out as Fed Governor" @Kalshi contract 🏦

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

There is #Fed CHAIR Powell & GOVERNOR Powell. One of those roles ending soon is a certainty, the other is not 🏦

What do the contracts on @Kalshi say about his remaining tenure and where can traders find value?

Go to https://t.co/muA24snP4A or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Great to have @DDeBusschere22V back on for another episode (I owe Dennis my @TheMasters jacket!). Dennis shares his thoughts on the markets, gives @jvisserlabs a nice shoutout & makes 3 @Kalshi picks of his own. Later in the episode I make 2 @Kalshi picks & both involve the #FED

[On The Tape Podcast @OnTheTapePod]

New pod in your feed this morning! @dmoses34 goes one-on-one with @DDeBusschere22V of 22V Research🎙️

💵 The "Luckiest" Economy In History
💼 Investor Sentiment In A Volatile Market
🏦 What @Kalshi Markets Say About 2026 Rate Cuts
📈 Odds The SPX Hits 7,800
🏀 This Knicks Trade Is A "Gift"

YOUTUBE: https://t.co/xjtvTG2fnr
APPLE: https://t.co/KoqwjZSXL1
SPOTIFY: https://t.co/vNlLmklWZq

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

Sergeant Hulka paid us a visit for today's "Dirty" & as @VD718 wrote on @Substack, there are many reported cases of "Bullmonia" out there. We give out some gold related picks & @Seawolfcap states that there is hope for @nyjets in 2026 (until the draft)
https://t.co/ahbzpP4ZCL

[Danny Moses @dmoses34]

"Hello Friends": A special @TheMasters edition of the "Friday Night Dirty" from our "What Are We Doing" Substack. @Seawolfcap @VD718 and myself focus on what is driving markets and what to watch for next week as the Banks kickoff earnings season...

https://t.co/gifdhjoDLu