Arun Sharma

doc interested in food, blockchain, nature and future, posts are NOT Financial Advice!

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@NeocandleBTC Undisputed potential 💯

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@btcbox123 Every cycle seems to be tracking longer horizontals and higher verticals! We shall see how this ends!

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@MatthewHyland_ You’re right on the rates in .com bubble but rates weren’t the drivers in 99, it was INTERNET, ~ to ICO boom of 15-17 in crypto!

What’s the 2026 industry wide driver?

RWAs, tokenization, stablecoins are all utility and institution driven, i.e., selective and not broad!

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

Still coiled & compressed in a downtrend, but clean set up for a violent upside if there is a clear trigger, either fed, eth/btc breaks out or something else

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@KevRGordon With the Fed just having hiked, how much of this move is Fed/inflation expectations vs. term premium?

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@scottmelker That’s what maturing market looks like, low is probably in side keeps gaining real evidence, while the magnitude will be compressed side just got endorsed by @ki_young_ju

[Will @WClemente]

Odds that cycle lows for btc are firmly in growing by the day.

Every day that goes by and every price move up, the higher the current rally (blue) is plotted on this graph I made a few weeks ago.

~87% probability that cycle low is in based on this

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@MatthewHyland_ Even Bitwise whose "Déjà Vu 2015?" cautioned a comparable repeat is unlikely "given Bitcoin's much more advanced stage of adoption."Same Fed stance but adoption regime that let 2015 rip is gone! Maybe some catch up, but its long way from your "largest bull run in history." /5 End

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@MatthewHyland_ @MatthewHyland_ Looks like whichever analogy is bullish in the moment! /4

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@intangiblecoins @WClemente That’s a good fact, but its a lagging fact, now needs to hold to really distinguish between confirmation and fakeout!

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@WClemente’s sample spans different worlds:
2011-15 pure retail, no institutions, no ETFs, no Fed
2018-19 early institutional interest but still crypto native driven
2022 post macro-coupling, Fed-sensitive, FTX ⬇️
2026 ETFs, instts. largest volume, decoupling via deleveraging

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@WClemente’s base rate is blind to both on-chain and macro, @willywoo’s is blind to macro, only captures on-chain

https://t.co/x2gAhT0mbq

[Will @WClemente]

In this version I adjusted the threshold for rallies from 35% to 40%, 13/15 rallies of this magnitude this far into the bear did not revisit lows of the prior 4 months.

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@WClemente Still a price-structure base rate that doesn’t quite factor in the restrictive-Fed/ETF-deleveraging backdrop. Not quite out of the danger zone yet!

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@willywoo 2015 decoupling analogy structurally breaks, 2026 decoupling is via post-ETF deleveraging with institutions dominant. Glassnode flagged these decouplings as historically short-lived.

The real question is still where does the marginal liquidity come from?

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@willywoo How is this decoupling a credible predictor in 2026? 2015-17 was not institution driven!

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@100trillionUSD QE restarted is actually false!

Inflation hasn’t cooled and the Fed isn’t cutting rates back toward zero!!

[Arun Sharma @docashar_]

@Cryptollica This chart is honest evidence that rotation into DOGE has not started. DOGE/BTC breaking its multi-year downtrend of lower highs would be real evidence of rotation, far more meaningful than any RSI floor! Until then, this setup is indistinguishable from a downtrend!