Henry McMaster Jr. breaks his silence one week after Trump named-dropped him as possible running mate for Pamela Evette in SC's Republican race for governor. The younger McMaster says, in part, "now is simply not the right time for me" to be considered for Lt. Gov. #scpol
🧵(2/2) However, much will depend on support from the large-scale flow to the north. In some models (e.g., EPS), an amplified upper-level trough digs over the Gulf, dredging deep tropical moisture northward and assisting the migration of the monsoon lobe into a position that facilitates cyclone formation over the Gulf by next weekend or early the following week.
Other models, notably most AI-based models, show a much less amplified upper-level pattern with northwesterlies dominating the Gulf and western Caribbean. This would suppress northward moisture transport and the migration and strength of the monsoonal vorticity pocket. The result is much less cyclone activity in the Gulf on these model runs.
We probably need a couple more days to identify which scenario the forecast is trending towards. For now, a low-ish probability of tropical activity in the Gulf region in 7-10 days is in view, but no concrete threats exist yet.
🧵(1/2) Some possibility of tropical activity in the Gulf exists beginning late next week. The Central American monsoon is becoming active as multiple equatorial waves (MJO, Kelvin, Rossby) overlap next week near 90W longitude.
The eastern lobe of the monsoon trough, perhaps even taking the form of a weak gyre, is expected to attempt to migrate northwestward into the western Caribbean or southern Gulf, a scenario which often creates potential for messy cyclones to develop and ultimately approach the Gulf coast.
Flavio Cobolli says he almost cried when Matteo Arnaldi told him he had to withdraw from Roland Garros
“When he came to me an hour ago, I almost cried. It’s something you don’t expect at all. I was ready to play this match. I was completely sad for him”💔
BREAKING:
Matteo Arnaldi has withdrawn from the Roland Garros semifinals.
Such a sad end to a great run for him. ❤️🩹
Flavio Cobolli advances to his first Grand Slam final.
🇮🇹❤️
✅ US Open 2020
✅ Roland-Garros 2024
✅ Australian Open 2025
✅ Roland-Garros 2026 🆕
Alexander Zverev is into his FOURTH Grand Slam Final! 🔢
#RolandGarros
29yo Alexander Zverev qualifies for his 4th Grand Slam final after beating Jakub Mensik in the #RolandGarros semifinals 7-5, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3.
The best ever player that never won a Slam (7 M1000, 2 ATP Finals, Olympic Gold) will have his biggest ever chance to win a Slam on Sunday.
This is the clear pain point in the economy.
Wage growth in May was the lowest in 5 years
May wage gains: 3.4% (for past year)
May inflation: Likely to be ~4%
It's easier to get a job now, but it's hard to find a job where your pay will keep up with current inflation.
May's 172,000 job gains were dominated by:
Hospitality: 70,000 (mainly restaurants)
Local gov't: 55,000
Healthcare: 35,000
But if you look at jobs gains in the past 3 months, you see a lot of industries hiring. (The exceptions are tech and finance)
Another encouraging sign: The Black Unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in May.
That's the lowest in a year.
The Black unemployment rate is often seen as a leading indicator. The fact that it's improving is another good sign (and an indicator that more Americans are benefitting from job gains this year)
JUST IN: Another strong jobs report. The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May (way better than the 88k expected) and the revisions for April and March were 93k higher. Hospitality was the top job gainer (+70k) followed by local gov’t (+55k)
Unemployment rate in May: 4.3% (same as April)
Job gains so far in 2026: 114,000 per month
Job gains in 2025: 10,000 per month
The bad news = wages grew 3.4% in past year. -->The lowest rate in 4 years and well below ~4% inflation.
Great chart from Nick showing the labor market rebound. The hiring recession is over. More firms are hiring again. It’s getting easier to find a job (though not a job that will offer raises above inflation)