Dominic Beirne

IWS PtyLtd. Bookie til 1988. RacingNSW appeals,Gr1 breeder&owner. A.R.C Tokyo, IFHA Paris. Invented Speed Map. Solved AUS deduction scale & HKJC jocks’challenge

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@hicasamadim Your audience might enjoy a bonus question:
What is the number before 6?

[Graham Pavey @LongBallToNoOne]

Wewantrock (JPN)

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@wpasterfield @snowyclark @Redfernexpress There was a sandgroper called Nearest who won 5 races and a mere $25,000 in the ‘90s
I figured you were talking about the one Mark remembered

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@KellyT_Marshall Almost impossible with 5kg WFA disadvantage.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

SHEZA ALIBI

After resetting the Randwick Guineas bar, she has reset the Randwick mile hcp bar with the highest “race rating” in the 35 year IWS database.

From a performance rating perspective, WINX’s 2016 Doncaster and FILANTE’s 1996 Epsom are comparable.
SUNLINE 2002 next.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@gilma101 I can’t explain it.
The 2kg debate doesn’t account for it.
The winning margins are usually too big for 2kg to matter.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

2002 All Aged was Sunline’s swansong, back-to-back world class ratings off a quick backup. The run overstretched the elastic band; in her final prep she was not the same

I wouldn’t be confident Sheza Alibi would repeat in the way Sunline did. Theoretically though, computer forecasts SA with 2.5kg age allowance would win

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

No averages, no.
Rather, a reduced rating per placing, taking account of the margin beaten, the weight carried, the age of each runner.
Where “average” might apply is one of the earliest and important things I learned.
“In this race, where would the “average winner” have finished across this margin-spread?”
That’s the key calculation for me.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@tjm120878 I would respond if I knew what you were meaning. Can you reword it?

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@SurfingPunter I didn’t have the full data of previous years to trust my 1991 / 1992 open company answers.
The mile hcps he won would definitely be much lower race ratings. The huge weights carried would result in highly respectable performance ratings, no doubt.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@pauloliver9999 When it comes to Autumn Boy, a reasonable question would be:
What price would he be if favourite not present. I can’t imagine he’d be much <$5.50.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@NoverreMan Yes very similar pattern both mares.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@FromBourke Coincidentally ATLANTIC JEWEL had 11 career starts.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

IWS has matched-up the two mares at this stage of careers.
That is, post Ryder win.

To normalise the comparison, I presumed WINX’s Ryder was career start #11, which means start#1 was her Phar Lap win.

IWS would have WINX by a head.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@davepband @J_Walter23 They’d move the barriers forward if they wanted to run programmed distance, since the circumference is larger, and your calculation 19m and 16m is about correct (if it’s a 90° bend).
But they extend the race.distance to provide longer run-up to first bend for safety reasons.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@J_Walter23 @davepband Hi Dave
The 2125m start can’t be any longer because they have no room to go back further.
The 1625m start is a reasonable compromise balancing:
1. the much shorter run-up to first bend than the 2125m race
2. keeping the integrity of it being a “mile” race.

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@NoverreMan Dundeel’s year (Held at Warwick Farm) is 2nd-best Randwick Guineas for mine.

VEANDERCROSS 1992 the best Canterbury Guineas (the Randwick guineas before stolen by Eastern Suburbs) since early ‘90s

[Dominic Beirne @domran]

@idolhorsedotcom Terrific article Shane 👏