Donshawwa

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@Zerosumgame33 You do so much great work/analysis, why the need to stretch the numbers? With the turnaround the 28s won’t be taken out by year end. Also, lots of other issues with the math. You are too smart for that.

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@ggas100 1. What if “can” produce and what if “does produce” are two different things

2. Annualized vs a quarter are twos different things.

3. Management can hide behind “forward statements “ disclaimer

So it’s not fraud but they lose credibility when they don’t hit the stated #s

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@ggas100 @Daniel___Gordon @Stockspy1 Negative things he said: 1. They are not maximizing base oil revenue to the fullest. Giving existing customers a discount vs market rates. 2. MRL issues with catalyst 3. PB margins can’t keep up 4. No clear plan for MRL monetization

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@ggas100 @Zerosumgame33 So many unnecessary errors. It’s like they are ran by a former intern…oh wait

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@toiletkingcap You were never right about fundamentals. You were using numbers from an x users spreadsheet that was completely wrong. Stock is still a double from the true inflection point when it was in mid teens. That run-up was because of the base oil margin boom.

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@ggas100 Fair. But they also had an ammonia build up and didn’t notice previously. Always something with MRL. Still all got massive SBC tho

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@RINsAndReds MRL probably shifts to an offtake/ joint venture partnership. Makes most sense. Keeps Rins credits and synergy between both $clmt divisions.

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@RINsAndReds 31s won’t get called until they are eligible. It will be 28 and 29s next year.

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@RINsAndReds Specialty will remain thru 2027. They will print cash. Could eliminate 28 and 29s AND allow for capex and M&A. But that still won’t be paid a premium going forward until the market trusts this management team. They don’t

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@RINsAndReds $clmt they have never had a clean MRL quarter. First it was Biden’s epa mistakes. Then inventory issues with steam drum leak. Now with record rd index margins they couldn’t capture it. A buyer won’t pay a premium on this business. Value of MRL is a real question mark

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@Daniel___Gordon $CLMT specialities division is printing cash and will do so for all of 2027. Margins will come down but still elevated. The issue is they are not maximizing revenue and still selling it to same customers when they can go elsewhere for a higher rate.

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@biofuelslaw Gotta get those margins way up on MRL. Relatively to the rd index that was a disappointing capture rate. Lessss go 💪🏽

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@burner3fs @variance_swap @Zerosumgame33 For MRL, DGD faced same capture issue but for a different reason. Problem is we have to wait 6 months to see a clean quarter. Monetizing this asset will be very difficult. Buyer won’t pay a premium. CLMT won’t give it away. Rin hedge and liabilities complicate the balance sheet

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@burner3fs @variance_swap @Zerosumgame33 If it’s just following craks, then just buy that etf why take single stock risk if that’s the case

Upside of the stock depends on your time horizon, political environment and how management executes

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@variance_swap @Zerosumgame33 $CLMT shareholders will be fine. They are executing well. Completely derisked at these levels, just upside may not be high as thought as quick

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@ItsDave_ADA Serious question, at won’t point do you wonder if you are wrong with your thesis?

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@SafeMargins @variance_swap @Zerosumgame33 Partially true for sure. If CLMT came in at 425 it would have decoupled from the others. But didn’t. That was because of MRL

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@variance_swap @Zerosumgame33 Now you are getting to the correct question. PB is a rounding error. Specialities is printing cash that will deleverage CLMT but won’t last forever (with these margins). At current prices and revenues MRL is baked in as zero ev. All three divisions so many moving parts.

[Donshawwa @donshawwa]

@variance_swap @Zerosumgame33 You are confusing margins and EBITDA. Rd index was $3.50. They captured $1.87. EBITDA was influenced by Rin obligation falling which is a non cash gain and can reverse. The sell off is because it’s now much harder to properly value MRL. 4Q is tainted so have to wait for 1Q27