Dorte Jelstrup

On this profile I share beautiful charts just for the fun of it.

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

If Kevin Maxwell Warsh doesn't have the courage to hike and tank the market and by this rug pulling Donald Trump into the US midterm elections, then he will probably hike on the December '26 meeting or later (if he wants to hike); and the market will party on into the US midterm elections.

Besides the recent problems of portfolios with too much leverage and high beta exposure, this outlined scenario will all in all also disrupt seasonality oriented takes on the market in the coming months.

Moreover, some Bitcoiners might get the belief that the bear market for Bitcoin is over simply because Bitcoin will rally in conjunction with equities throughout what might be a beautiful Indian Summer.

Bitcoiners will be in for a tough awakening alongside the rest of the market, if Kevin Maxwell Warsh hikes on the December '26 meeting or later.

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

The Cidatel and Situational Awareness story is interesting from a variety of perspectives.

One of them is the obvious:

Stocks go down dramatically on rate hike fears; we just saw an instance of that.

So, investors buying into the current regime of violent drops and bounces, essentially bet on no rate hikes for some time.

I don't know what will happen regarding rates.

I understand, that the bond market might point towards a hike sometime in '26.

The wild card is Kevin Maxwell Warsh; he can talk and talk about inflation, but will he actually walk the talk and hike? Into the US midterm elections?

I don't have the answer.

If Kevin Maxwell Warsh doesn't want to tank the market into the US midterm elections, then we might be in for a classic, the V-shaped recovery.

Maybe he will wait till after the US midterm elections, if he wants to hike at all?

At the end of the day, price action depends, at least partly, on what the market believes regarding upcoming potential hikes.

Interesting times indeed; I wish I had a crystal ball... 😊

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

I mean, does Kevin Maxwell Warsh look like someone with the courage to hike and tank the market and by this rug pulling Donald Trump into the US midterms elections?

No, he doesn't.

Then there is the problem of the price of oil.

Maybe Donald Trump will do nearly anything in order to get out of the Iran war or at least pause it till after the US midterm elections so that the price of oil stays not too elevated?

In such a scenario the market will go up into the US midterm elections.

And since we have got some froth out of the market lately, the setting is in place for a V-shaped recovery.

Yes, we are dealing with a lot of volatility; but that's the name of the game in an inflationary environment.

Of course, all the above is just lofty speculation; the good thing is, however, that whatever happens will be revealed in actual price action.

So one can just follow actual price action...

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

$SMH has been rejected at the VWAP anchored at the March '26 low.

However, for now, it trades above the 100-day EMA; bulls need to see $SMH close above the 100-day EMA.

Let's await today's close in this one.

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

Enjoy the bounce...

Bouncing into resistance or above resistance?

Closing below resistance or above resistance?

Valid questions.

We'll see...

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

For now, $QQQ has been rejected at the 100-day EMA.

That's a key moving average.

For now, $SPY has been rejected at the 55-day EMA.

That's a key moving average.

Let's see how $QQQ and $SPY close.

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

The MINI KOSPI Futures have bounced; currently, they are trading above the 200-day EMA.

For the rally in US memory stocks to have real legs, the MINI KOSPI Futures need a close above the upper line of the regression trend and the Fibonacci level 0,618 of the Fibonacci retracement from the March 31 '26 low.

As always, staying open-minded and adaptable is decisive.

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

The last time I shared a chart showing a rounding top in progress, we got a relief rally; it was the chart of $QQQ.

Now, after the relief rally, $QQQ did break down and completed the rounding top as I had foreshadowed.

Yesterday, when I shared the chart below of $SPX, I got the thought that we could very well get a rally before $SPX goes lower and completes the construction of the rounding top, just like $QQQ did.

And maybe this is what is happening right now...

I would love to be so super wrong on this; the bearish attitude sucks... 😊

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

$SPX has lost the 55-day EMA and the VWAPs anchored at the June 26 '26 low and the June 9 '26 low.

The 9-day EMA has crossed the 21-day EMA from above; and both EMAs have a downward slope.

If price drops below the June 10 '26 low approximately in conjunction with the VWAP anchored at the March 30 '26 low and the 100-day EMA, then $SPX is completing a construction of a rounding top.

As always, staying open-minded and adaptable is decisive.

Have a nice evening! 🌟

$SPY $RSP

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

Great chart, thanks! ✨

Interesting correlation; the KOSPI once again... 😊

[Sonu Varghese @sonusvarghese]

Who'd have thought $CAT would be correlated to the KOSPI, but here we are 👏

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

Yes, maybe...

Maybe we are seeing a failed breakout in $XLI.

$XLI printed a lower high on July 27 '26 and a lower low today.

Also, $XLI trades below the 55-day EMA.

Furthermore, the 9-day EMA and the 21-day EMA have a downward slope.

Today, $XLI is down -2,79%.

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

Did we see a failed breakout in $XLI?

I am not saying that this is the case; I am posing a question...

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

$SPX has lost the 55-day EMA and the VWAPs anchored at the June 26 '26 low and the June 9 '26 low.

The 9-day EMA has crossed the 21-day EMA from above; and both EMAs have a downward slope.

If price drops below the June 10 '26 low approximately in conjunction with the VWAP anchored at the March 30 '26 low and the 100-day EMA, then $SPX is completing a construction of a rounding top.

As always, staying open-minded and adaptable is decisive.

Have a nice evening! 🌟

$SPY $RSP

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

Good morning from Copenhagen! ✨

Our good friends in South Korea are working on the Kospi; currently, it's down -8,66%.

It has sliced through the 200-day SMA.

The big question is:

Will price take out the March 31 '26 low in the Kospi?

Also, 000660, that is SK hynix Inc., is down -17,94% for now; it has retested the 200-day EMA.

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

When you have followed the price action of the Kospi and the Kospi Mini Futures like I have done for some time now -- while some analysts told us that the Kospi didn't matter -- , you are not surprised by today's price action.

Kospi has now retested the 200-day EMA.

Will it go lower from here?

Yes, it will; it will retest the 200-day SMA.

And the interesting question is:

Will the bleeding stop somewhere between the 200-day SMA and the Fibonacci level 1 of the Fibonacci retracement from the March 31 '26 low, or will it continue below the Fibonacci level 1?

In other words:

Will price take out the March 31 '26 low?

That's the question.

We will see.

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

I don't think that $SMH is through the woods yet.

Today, price has taken out the May 19 '26 low; so, it's easy to see that $SMH has built a rounding top.

Furthermore, it's getting rejected at the 100-day EMA.

This one could very well retest the 200-day EMA and the 200-day SMA.

We'll see...

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

Then again, there's also the May 19 '26 low at around $527,70; if $SMH takes out the May 19 '26 low, it will build a perfect rounding top...

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

Regarding US memory stocks:

I am sorry to say this, but I don't think that they are through the woods yet.

Why?

The Kospi has still room for more downside which is visible on the chart below.

No one knows what will happen; this is just my take on the chart of Kospi.

And the Kospi has been a great proxy for memory stocks.

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

When you have followed the price action of the Kospi and the Kospi Mini Futures like I have done for some time now -- while some analysts told us that the Kospi didn't matter -- , you are not surprised by today's price action.

Kospi has now retested the 200-day EMA.

Will it go lower from here?

Yes, it will; it will retest the 200-day SMA.

And the interesting question is:

Will the bleeding stop somewhere between the 200-day SMA and the Fibonacci level 1 of the Fibonacci retracement from the March 31 '26 low, or will it continue below the Fibonacci level 1?

In other words:

Will price take out the March 31 '26 low?

That's the question.

We will see.

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

When four, not one, but four (!!!!) of your favorite analysts are already long on or longing $ORCL.

I rest my case... 😊

However, I am not joining myself; but I get the bounce idea and also, as one of them says:

The insane risk to reward...

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

This is $ORCL relative to $SPY on a weekly chart.

I've been taught not to bottom fish... 🐟

But you do you; I do me... 😊

[Dorte Jelstrup @dortejelstrup]

Did you ignore that $QQQ was in the process of building a rounding top?

I didn't.

Today, $QQQ has dropped below the Fibonacci level 0,382 of the Fibonacci retracement from the March 30 '26 low.

Will $QQQ retest the Fibonacci level 0,5?

It's definitely possible.

Today and right now, $QQQ is down -1,79%.