Kai Capital

Thesis Driven Swing Trader | ~400% returns in 18 months

$PENG @ 39
$SNDK @ 230
$MRVL @ 180

Shaken, not stopped out

NFA DYOR

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

I came to the US from Ukraine at 9, not knowing a word of English.

At 17 I got obsessed with markets as I wanted to help my family financially. I spent a year on penny stocks and futures and learned nothing except how to lose money.

At 19, second year of uni, I tried again. I had $20K saved from odd jobs and remote web work, and I put all of it into $HIMS at $25 in November of 2024.

It ran to $70 and portfolio went over $55K, but I didn't sell.

Then April 2025 hit. The tariff crash roundtripped $HIMS all the way back under $25.

I sat through the entire drawdown, bought more, held on conviction, and sold at $55 in June.

Around then I joined the HIMS House Discord and met some of the best traders I've ever met: @GuSonOfBu, @RJCcapital, @mpk_twit, @chonky_453, @KawzInvests, @JerBearRN, @retail_mourinho, @NighthawkTradez, @Fluke340, and Solar. I don't think they know just how much they mean to me. They changed how I see this entire game and help me improve to this day.

Right after selling $HIMS, I got greedy.

I blew $15K in two hours on a shitco, the exact penny-stock mentality I thought I'd left behind. Gone in an afternoon.

That loss is the best thing that happened to me.

I stopped chasing. I built an actual strategy: high conviction, thesis-driven, 4–18 month outlook. Only names I understand deeply. No noise, no lottery tickets.

Since then:
$HOOD 70 → 147
$SNDK 230 → 1,800
$KRKNF 2.6 → 6.2
$MU 350 → 1,000
$NBIS 95 → 220
$PENG 39 → 81
$MRVL 180 → 245

$20K → a $150K+ portfolio. ~400%+ returns net of deposits since I started a year and half ago.

I'm 20 and just getting started.

NFA

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

$KRKNF was an amazing pick here CK!

Genuinely one of the strongest fundamentally, it's 40% off it's highs, recently seen insider buying and imo currently still mispricing the Covelya acquisition they did couple months back.

Lots of potential from here.

[CK Capital @CKCapitalxx]

New All In: $KRKNF

Here’s the thesis, and it’s all about a clock almost nobody is watching.

Almost 4 months ago, Anduril won an award from the US Navy and the Defense Innovation Unit. The program is called CAMP, and it’s the Navy’s push to rapidly prototype and field extra large autonomous submarines.

Drone subs that can travel over 2,000 nautical miles, stay underwater for weeks, and drop payloads on the sea floor without a single sailor on board.

Buried in that contract is one line: Anduril must complete a long duration, operationally representative demonstration within 4 months of award.

Award was mid March. Do the math. That window is closing right now. The exercise should be happening in the next two weeks if it hasn’t quietly happened already.

Could they keep it confidential? It’s possible, the contract runs to the Navy, not the public. But think about it. Anduril publicly announced winning the award with a full press rollout.

You don’t post about winning the test and then go silent on the result. The demo is worth more than the award, the award says we were picked, the demo says it works.

That’s the one that sells production contracts. And knowing Palmer Luckey, this company announces everything loudly.

Here’s the key. CAMP was built as a pathway, not a test. DIU’s whole model turns a successful demo directly into production contracts, skipping the usual years of procurement. That’s the door this exercise opens.

Why it matters for Kraken: Anduril’s underwater fleet is built around Kraken’s pressure tolerant batteries and sonar. Embedded in the design, estimated millions in content per hull. Every vehicle built ships Kraken revenue with it. A successful demo is the gate between Anduril’s Rhode Island factory waiting for orders and scheduled US Navy production.

And the stock is down about 50% from its highs on zero fundamental change.

Everyone knows Kraken is inside Anduril’s subs. Almost nobody is watching the clock.

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@Barchart Are institutions and big boys trying to hide where they move capital? Thats nuts

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@pepemoonboy Selling options is a good strategy for safer returns when you already have a big portfolio, selling options at 10k, 100k and 1M are all very different things

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@BoringBiz_ get your popcorn ladies and gentlemen

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

I think the recent heavy pullback in CPO names are a healthy correction after some names ran 3-10x in months.

Regardless I believe in the long term these are the dips you buy with both hands.

Long $AAOI

NFA

[TheBigBerbowski @TheBigBerbowski]

I find it fascinating how FOMO can make people lose their minds, and how big drops can make people lose all their hopes.

$AAOI with all its pros and cons, is still the same company you wanted to own at $220.

Now it's cheaper, but for many clicking the buy button is harder than before.

We are getting an update in a couple of weeks.
ER should be in early August.

What are your thoughts? Buying? Holding?
What are your hopes and fears?

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

I'll leave this here for all those who want to join our community https://t.co/NVBEomf8Oz

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

NEW ALL IN... kidding but

Added $SIVEF / $SIVE at $4.66 two days ago, sitting at $5 now. Nice little unrealized +6.7%

This is NOT a core position like $PENG or $DRAM in the book. Sized small, short-term, purely tactical and that's why I am Positioned accordingly.

The thesis: CPO/photonics names got way too oversold across the board. SIVE is InP-based photonics, positioned for 1.6T and CPO, with a real Nasdaq NY dual-listing catalyst in play. Relatively speculative, thin float, no volume revenue yet to back the multiple, and one thing to point out, $SIVE started tp snap back hard off oversold levels but the other highly speculative names haven't $AAOI $AXTI, and that strength is important.

Not a "this is the next PENG" call. It's a bounce trade on a name with a legit long-term option attached if the LiDAR ramp and uplisting land later this year. Positioned accordingly, even that if it round-trips, it doesn't matter.

Real-time sizing and trims posted in the Inner Circle Discord, it's in bio.

NFA

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@sky_surferblue @michaeljburry Yes no more animal abuse pics lmao

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@antibearthesis thank you Noah!

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

High conviction and zero trimming aren't the same thing. I said "thesis intact," not "never sell a share." PENG ran from $39 to $86, that's 2x+. Trimming 20-30% into a move like that isn't doubting the thesis, it's managing size so a pullback doesn't wreck the position. I still hold the core.

If anything, refusing to ever trim a "homerun" is how conviction turns into giving back the whole move and I have been there before.

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

Flagged the $PENG trim to the Discord at $86 at 10:14am.

It closed at $78 the next day with the low at $74.

Not a top-call. I've been scaling out the whole way up at $66-72, then $86. That's what you do when a high-conviction name runs. Entry was $39. Still hold a decent position, thesis intact.

This is what thesis-driven trimming looks like. I post them when I make them, not after.

And I do the same for the other names in the book:
$HPE $MRVL $NBIS $ASTS $DRAM $MU $HIVE $SIVE

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

That's exactly why I don't try to call tops. A top-call is one guess, one price, all in on being right. What I'm doing is the opposite: layered trims, scaling into strength as thesis targets hit. Even if $86 wasn't the high, I already captured plenty of upside. No single trim needs to be "the top" for the system to work. That's the EV edge, not a leak in it.

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@thepunditoor $Dram is HBM bet with heavy 3-way monopoly in $MU $SKHYV $samsung and $disk is more diversified as a general memory storage bet not just HBM. So better is subjective to your needs

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@TheBigBerbowski Let's get it, next week will be interesting.

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@StockMKTNewz Thats why they are getting sued for price fixing, but it's ridiculous when they output has ramped up so much. Personally long $dram and $mu

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@StockMKTNewz You can bet on anything these days

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@antibearthesis He worked with Sam, he Knew whats coming

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@InTheAssembly matter of time before the comeback, mark it long $MSFT

[Kai Capital @Double0Capital]

@elonmusk On point, how is OpenAi even relevant when we have Anthropic?

My "this" in has been trading, genuinely so fun and rewarding,