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$KC - A Breakdown of My Trade on $KC's +180% Move in a Month (Scans, Watchlist Management, Entry Day Insights, and Systematic Risk Management for Holding)
Rather than replying to individual DMs about my $KC position (ironically, my earlier post was about $FBTC), I decided it’s better to share this as part of the free educational content for everyone to benefit from.
Here are a few key points about the share structure of $KC before the breakout, so you can adjust your screening parameters if needed. This is the type of stock profile that typically shows up in the 'Top 100 Performance% Stocks' annually. It's also why I tend to focus on small to mid-cap stocks most of the time.
Share Structure Before Breakout at $3
i) Market Cap: $700M USD (Current: $2B USD)
ii) ADR%: 5.7% (Current: 10.8%)
iii) IPO Timer: 4.5 Years ago
iv) Outstanding Share Float: 250M
v) Avg (50) $ Vol: $35M USD/day
vi) Avg (50) Share Volume: 4M/day
1. 1st move back above 200-MA after 1 year, +80% with RS during the 2 weeks.
$KC will initially show up on your '1-Month Strongest Move' screener. I move the entire list (which includes $KC) to my watchlist, awaiting a higher low swing to confirm a character change.
2. Higher Low may be in place at this point with price contraction within a symmetrical triangle. I abolutely pay more attention to stocks when price contract along with ALL moving averages contracts together. (10, 20, 50, 100, 150, 200 DMA)
$KC remains in watchlist, but will begin to keep appearing in my 'Screener within Watchlist' based on technical price compression.
3. Entry day on 5/11; here are some qualification
i) it broke out of a 2 week technical triangle pattern and consolidated range
ii) it broke out with high RVOL (RVOL was 40% in 10mins of open)
iii) LoD was only 40% (i skip trade beyond 60%. I want high possibility of position ending the day with unrealized profit, not near entry price)
Entry day is T. 3 stop set based on 33% stop level from entry to LoD. I do not consolidate and adjust my stops to breakeven (avg price) until T+3 days
T+3 = 33% size down (immediate partial profit taking or shaving risk down on trade that did not follow through but still hovering above avg entry as I have tight stops (since I only do execution when price action presents entry to LoD below 60%). All stops are consolidated to breakeven level on 1 full singular size.
Read more here on my detailed approach to risk management within a singular trade: https://t.co/v6ADk5Wtos
4. Day 4 onwards is all mental stop on 10-MA. I do not mess with the trade if it doesn't close below 10-MA.
5. This trade did not close below 10-MA at all even at 13 x ATR% from 50-MA currently (highest ever). No reason to sell everything, but you have every reason to sell some pieces into strength at extension beyond 10 x ATR% beyond 50-MA.
To be fair, nobody will know the outcome on the day their trade execution; but what I strongly advise is to adhere to the principle of law of large number and you need to have this few things right;
i) make sure your screener gets u the setup before they MOVE, not after (i do not believe in high volume scan, you have already missed the most optimal entry day and the risk/reward is skewed after it. Try volume based high RVOL 'at time' scan instead during live market at minimum. High volume scan works best only as post continuation base setup, and the perfect entry spot often is a few weeks after that result appear)
ii) have a entry rule that stack the odds of position ending the day with unrealized profit. LoD 60% rule, high RVOL etc are my 'secret'
iii) ensure you have non-discretionary profit taking/stop loss rule. you cannot second guess the market, and u need to keep your emotion in check. you won't be able to hold a big runner if you like to second guess 'top' and 'bottom' in the market. the trades that can move needle in your annual performance % are trades that you never expect to do what they are doing. they make moves against basic human instinct.
iv) you need to know when to go 'heavy' vs 'light' in terms of trade frequency and activity. $KC trade was taken right on the day market bounce off it's rising 50-MA, before subsequent market gap up to reclaim 10 & 20-MA. Market index chart eg. $SPY $RSP $QQQ are great to cushion you when to layer your risk or release the pedal. I will never take on risk when $SPY is 4 x ATR% from 50-MA when it historically pullback from 5 x ATR% from 50-MA. I am pretty certain $KC sort of move will never happen in any stock at this juncture of the market. You need to stack every single possible odds to let the trade work in your favor, and the current market extension now is a headwind more than a tailwind.
v) repetition & refine; do this 100 times, go through your trade data and refine. do it another 100 times again, go through your trade data and refine. in a year, you will be able to refine up to 4 times at least. you only can get better if you refine your trading based on your trade journal. you can't escape this part of the work, please.
I hope this is helpful, it's just some basic principle, math and plenty of repetition in trading for me.
If you find this type of content valuable, do retweet ♾ so I know what sort of things to share in this space during my free time.
Exciting things going on at Propy! I’m excited to see how many properties we can get minted before the owners even hear about it. #propykeys#weresoearly
📢 The Ondo Foundation is excited to announce the Ondo Points program to reward community members and increase awareness of products in the Ondo Ecosystem 📢
🌊 You can earn points in many ways, from participating in the community and DAO to using Ondo products and services. The opportunities to earn points are grouped into three campaigns.
1️⃣ Campaign 1: Wasted Stablecoin Interest Competition
The Ondo Ecosystem launched some of the safest stablecoin yield options onchain, backed by US Treasuries and other very conservative assets.
@OndoFinance launched the first tokenized security to gain material adoption, $OUSG, and the Ondo DAO governs the first lending market to support both permissioned and permissionless assets, @FluxDeFi. Ondo Finance and Ondo Foundation have also collaborated on the first yield-bearing substitute to conventional stablecoins, $USDY. Whatever you’re looking for in onchain cash management, chances are you can find a solution in our suite of products.
That said, most stablecoins – tens of billions of dollars – are still sitting in onchain wallets earning no yield. This means that stablecoin holders have wasted billions of dollars in forgone interest in 2023 alone.
👑 The Ondo Foundation is excited to announce a fun competition: Let’s find out how much interest you’ve gifted stablecoin issuers and crown the most wasteful one!
Eligibility: Every wallet that held uninvested $USDC or $USDT between the launch of $OUSG (January 26, 2023) and the end of 2023 will be eligible to earn points. You must claim the points by March 31.
How to claim:
• Visit https://t.co/Oeb6KFrME6
• Connect your wallet and Twitter account.
• Complete the workflow to find out how much interest you’ve wasted and claim your points.
2️⃣ Campaign 2: Ondo Community
We’re thankful for the outpouring support from our growing community. Anyone in the Ondo community can earn points. New community members are welcome too! You can join us at:
• @OndoFoundation
• @FluxDeFi
• @OndoFinance
• https://t.co/aq2t0wPlK1
• https://t.co/QGWvIKLXNn
• https://t.co/r78H3SpNrD
How to Claim:
• Visit https://t.co/0tGVZBH7wK
• Confirm your participation in each community channel to earn points.
Additionally, CoinList purchasers who claim their $ONDO tokens by March 31 will earn more points according to their stakes. Except for paper hands, who’ll be excluded from this reward pool. Points will be distributed automatically, so no other action is needed if you’ve claimed your tokens.
3️⃣ Campaign 3: Ondo Ecosystem
The Ondo Foundation will also reward those who participate in the Ondo Ecosystem in 2024. There are many ways to earn!
DAO Governance:
• Become an $ONDO holder. Earn points by holding $ONDO in your wallet. Bonus points for diamond hands.
• Participate in governance. Earn points by delegating your voting power or voting on proposals yourself. Bonus points for becoming an active delegate.
@FluxDeFi:
• Lend stablecoins on Flux. Earn points for each dollar you supply to stablecoin markets on Flux. Bonus points for participating in multiple markets.
USDY:
• Hold $USDY. Earn points (and interest) for each $USDY token held. Stop wasting yield by holding uninvested stablecoins. Bonus points for holding $USDY across multiple chains.
• Mint $USDY. Earn points by minting new $USDY.
DeFi Ecosystem:
• Use Ondo assets across DeFi. Earn points by leveraging Ondo assets like $USDY across DeFi, on protocols such as Uniswap, Kamino, Orca, Curve, and more. Bonus points for participating in multiple protocols.
Mystery Quests
• We’ll also award points to certain undisclosed actions around the Ondo Ecosystem. Can you figure out how?
❌ The Foundation will disqualify malicious actors (such as Sybil attackers) and wallets associated with illegal activities.
🌊 The Ondo team is honored by the interest we’ve received from the community, and we’re excited to announce the points program to reward those who’ve supported us. Point balances will be tracked off-chain, and a leaderboard will be available soon on our website.
🤝 In the coming months, we’ll announce further rewards for those who earn points. In the meantime, we encourage you to use our products and services, join our community channels, and provide feedback in our Discord.
📰 Blog: https://t.co/vJvUfq7a9F
📢 The Ondo Foundation is excited to announce the Ondo Points program to reward community members and increase awareness of products in the Ondo Ecosystem 📢
🌊 You can earn points in many ways, from participating in the community and DAO to using Ondo products and services. The opportunities to earn points are grouped into three campaigns.
1️⃣ Campaign 1: Wasted Stablecoin Interest Competition
The Ondo Ecosystem launched some of the safest stablecoin yield options onchain, backed by US Treasuries and other very conservative assets.
@OndoFinance launched the first tokenized security to gain material adoption, $OUSG, and the Ondo DAO governs the first lending market to support both permissioned and permissionless assets, @FluxDeFi. Ondo Finance and Ondo Foundation have also collaborated on the first yield-bearing substitute to conventional stablecoins, $USDY. Whatever you’re looking for in onchain cash management, chances are you can find a solution in our suite of products.
That said, most stablecoins – tens of billions of dollars – are still sitting in onchain wallets earning no yield. This means that stablecoin holders have wasted billions of dollars in forgone interest in 2023 alone.
👑 The Ondo Foundation is excited to announce a fun competition: Let’s find out how much interest you’ve gifted stablecoin issuers and crown the most wasteful one!
Eligibility: Every wallet that held uninvested $USDC or $USDT between the launch of $OUSG (January 26, 2023) and the end of 2023 will be eligible to earn points. You must claim the points by March 31.
How to claim:
• Visit https://t.co/Oeb6KFrME6
• Connect your wallet and Twitter account.
• Complete the workflow to find out how much interest you’ve wasted and claim your points.
2️⃣ Campaign 2: Ondo Community
We’re thankful for the outpouring support from our growing community. Anyone in the Ondo community can earn points. New community members are welcome too! You can join us at:
• @OndoFoundation
• @FluxDeFi
• @OndoFinance
• https://t.co/aq2t0wPlK1
• https://t.co/QGWvIKLXNn
• https://t.co/r78H3SpNrD
How to Claim:
• Visit https://t.co/0tGVZBH7wK
• Confirm your participation in each community channel to earn points.
Additionally, CoinList purchasers who claim their $ONDO tokens by March 31 will earn more points according to their stakes. Except for paper hands, who’ll be excluded from this reward pool. Points will be distributed automatically, so no other action is needed if you’ve claimed your tokens.
3️⃣ Campaign 3: Ondo Ecosystem
The Ondo Foundation will also reward those who participate in the Ondo Ecosystem in 2024. There are many ways to earn!
DAO Governance:
• Become an $ONDO holder. Earn points by holding $ONDO in your wallet. Bonus points for diamond hands.
• Participate in governance. Earn points by delegating your voting power or voting on proposals yourself. Bonus points for becoming an active delegate.
@FluxDeFi:
• Lend stablecoins on Flux. Earn points for each dollar you supply to stablecoin markets on Flux. Bonus points for participating in multiple markets.
USDY:
• Hold $USDY. Earn points (and interest) for each $USDY token held. Stop wasting yield by holding uninvested stablecoins. Bonus points for holding $USDY across multiple chains.
• Mint $USDY. Earn points by minting new $USDY.
DeFi Ecosystem:
• Use Ondo assets across DeFi. Earn points by leveraging Ondo assets like $USDY across DeFi, on protocols such as Uniswap, Kamino, Orca, Curve, and more. Bonus points for participating in multiple protocols.
Mystery Quests
• We’ll also award points to certain undisclosed actions around the Ondo Ecosystem. Can you figure out how?
❌ The Foundation will disqualify malicious actors (such as Sybil attackers) and wallets associated with illegal activities.
🌊 The Ondo team is honored by the interest we’ve received from the community, and we’re excited to announce the points program to reward those who’ve supported us. Point balances will be tracked off-chain, and a leaderboard will be available soon on our website.
🤝 In the coming months, we’ll announce further rewards for those who earn points. In the meantime, we encourage you to use our products and services, join our community channels, and provide feedback in our Discord.
📰 Blog: https://t.co/vJvUfq7a9F
The Proton Lifetime Fundraiser is here!
🎟️ Enter raffle to win 1 of 10 Lifetime plans
🌟 Bid on 3 ultra-rare 1-letter Proton usernames
🫶 Support 10 outstanding orgs
🎁 Follow us on selected social media profiles for the chance to win 1 Lifetime plan
➡️ https://t.co/2s9yQNmJAg
💥 FREE SCAN + VIDEO 💥
👉 Check out my watch list and game plan for tomorrow https://t.co/SAEKMb05Go
RT and Like for a chance to win a free IU t-shirt 🔥
$PACW $WAL $IBRX $DKNG $TOP $SAI $PLSE $VCIG $TKLF $HOOK $TIO $CDLX $MINM $SHOP and more
Baby Alpha is here! We are proud to announce that today we hit our Baby Alpha milestone and have begun the march to Fair Onboarding Alpha and Full Launch Alpha.
https://t.co/8PBC9sRNPS
What we've accomplished and what's ahead 🧵 (1/6)