TheDozenStockPortfolio

Not Financial Advice. I love analyzing stocks, but not owning them all. Building a smaller portfolio I believe in to buy back time and serve my family.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

I'm a finance-minded guy who manages his own portfolio. I hold myself to the standard of beating the market because I genuinely believe I can—while learning every day just how much smarter other investors are.

I've watched FinTwit/FinX from the sidelines for years. I've found countless stocks worth researching, spent hours learning them, and added plenty to a watchlist.

Then months later, I find the ticker again and can't remember why I liked it—or why I passed.

The Dozen is my attempt to fix that.

I'm documenting my investment decisions and measuring every opportunity against the cost of saying yes to it instead of something else.

I will knowingly pass on great stocks.

That's okay. I can't own everything.

Not Financial Advice.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

I am naturally skeptical of technical analysis, but charts like this are teaching me to trust the process a little more.

Looking back at $ORCL , the moving averages have repeatedly mattered.

In January, it bounced off the 50D after several failed attempts to break through it. In April, it finally broke above the 50D, then paused almost immediately at the 100D.

In June, price broke above the 200D, but couldn't hold it. It dropped back to the 50D, held there for about a week, then broke lower.

Now, $ORCL is back above the 50D, but pinned below the 100D, with the 200D converging from above. The 200W is also sitting just under $150, adding another level to the fight.

The price action following earnings has been frustrating, but the 50D gives me some confidence as long as it holds. If it can also break through the rising 200W around $150, that would be another positive step for the chart in the near term.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

Plenty of fight between $GLD and the 50/100D SMAs over the past six months.

$GLD now has the 50D and 100D converging around $393–398, with a tight channel up to the 200D around $416.

With rising uncertainty around rates and the midterm elections, I am curious to see where this goes.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

Spent some time refining my default charts in #ThinkorSwim from @CharlesSchwab.

The standard studies made the header too busy to quickly tell which SMA was which, so I simplified the layout around the 50D, 100D, 200D and 200W.

Putting it to work on my preliminary look at $WMT vs. $TGT, Target's chart looks meaningfully stronger right now. I still have some work to do on the review of these companies.

Any other recommendations for improving TOS Desktop?

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

@Mr_Derivatives I wouldn’t even consider ways to increase taxes until the government stops spending. If the bleeding had stopped and this resolved the old debt, maybe. To just further prop up unabated spending, pass.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

@Mr_Derivatives With TTD being removed from the S&P 500, does that freeze its return on that date? 🤔 If so, they could turn it around in Q4 and still earn the distinction.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

Took the day off of research and visited Joshua Tree National Park. These are so wild!

Touching grass…or sand and rock is always fun. $SPY will wait for tomorrow!

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

The wildest aspect of $ORCL giving up its post-earnings call gains is that $ADBE has now flipped green. A tale of two very different tapes. 🤯

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

@StockSavvyShay Touched $170 Tuesday morning and now down 10% following a strong earnings report. It did front run earnings some from late July lows, but still down dramatically from FY26 year end earnings call ($200). This feels oversold here.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

When looking at $ORCL 's capex, debt and OpenAI concentration, is it possible the market is missing the real end game?

$MSFT, $META, $AMZN and $GOOGL are spending extraordinary amounts on compute because demand continues to dwarf supply.

What if OpenAI gave Oracle the opportunity to accelerate a massive OCI buildout, knowingly sacrificing near-term FCF for the long-term opportunity?

If $ORCL wasn't building, would the market instead be asking whether it risks irrelevance like $CRM?

What if OpenAI isn't the end game, but the means to allow Oracle to become the next hyperscaler?

And how soon might OCI go from a cash drain to a legitimate cash flow contributor?

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

@StockSavvyShay @Fiscal_ai The revenue growth on its own is impressive, but the growth in high-margin revenue from AWS is what really draws me to the company. Amazon is an interesting proxy for considering opportunities in the data center trade. If successful, $NBIS and $ORCL can aspire to be AWS.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

Sometimes I feel like I am living out a Taylor Swift song.

It must be exhausting always rooting for the anti-hero.

There have been so many times when emotion tells me the market must be destined for a pullback.

Earlier in my investing journey, fear of the inevitable drop would lead me to move heavily to cash. Then you spend months wondering if you just gave up big returns waiting for “the drop.”

Eventually, I learned to back away from that and let judgment take over.

Then you zoom out.

Wow. Three years of $SPY is wild.

If you told me the next three years looked exactly like this, I would sign up in a heartbeat.

Another 71% would put the S&P 500 over 13,000.

This chart is a good reminder to zoom out.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

Stock: $PLTR

Not financial advice. Do your own diligence.

Palantir is a company that I love, but it took me far too long to find it.

This was probably my clearest lesson in the danger of focusing too heavily on metrics like trailing P/E without understanding why the hype around a company is gaining traction.

I passed at $20. Then $30. Then $40. Eventually, I watched it run all the way to $240.

When the market gave me another chance near $120, I jumped on it.

Here is the report behind my decision to buy Palantir in June.

At ~$170 today, this remains a long-term holding. If the market gives me another meaningful pullback, I'll be looking to add.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

@TheValueTrade This was a really hard lesson to learn. I went back a couple years. Closed positions on almost 100 stocks. Now I shoot for around a dozen. I research just as many, but I go harder on higher conviction and pass on those I don’t understand yet.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

@CGInvesting10 I have been through this! A few years ago, I held 60 plus stocks at any given time. Earnings season was rough because I always had something reporting…and I just didn’t know most of the companies well enough to. Now I keep closer to 12 higher conviction stocks, with 50% in SPY.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

This is my favorite perspective. This is why I liked Oracle at $121 compared to higher beta names like White Fiber. I will miss some winners there, but I prefer the higher floor that still offers compelling upside. If I can find the stocks that get discounted like that, I can be more than happy!

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

$WMT or $TGT?

I have held Target since August 2025, adding to it in February. Before that, I had held Walmart as a long term position until November 2024, when it felt like it got overextended.

With Target up 66.5% YTD and Walmart down 5%, I am looking forward to giving this a fresh look to see if Target still makes sense over Walmart in the near term.

WMT has a Forward P/E of 37 while TGT has a Forward P/E of 16.

I am really curious to see what I find digging deeper into these two! I probably need to consider as well (+5% YTD with a Tech inspired Forward P/E of 41)

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

$ACMR +4% today and now nearly 15% off last week's lows.

Sounds like a big move.

It's also trading back at levels last seen...August 27.

After the recent volatility, I'm watching the August 7 post-earnings high of $92.55 as the next meaningful level.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

Stock: $ORCL

Not financial advice. Do your own diligence.

Most of my current holdings, "The Dozen", are long term in nature, but Oracle was more opportunistic. It has a great software business, but the financing risk on AI is a real headwind. With an entry price of $121 and a spike into earnings, the nature of the opportunity has shifted over the past six weeks. There is certainly upside looking forward, but the wrong news on capital spend could cause a sharp pullback in the near term.

If this sniffs the upper $160s ahead of earnings, I may look at strategies involving options to reduce the risk associated with a near term pullback.

That will be decided closer to the call itself.

[TheDozenStockPortfolio @DozenPortfolio]

Over the next few days, I will post a few of the reports I have put together from recent purchase decisions, as well as recent pass decisions. Over time, my intent is to post these in real time, but I want to start by sharing some of the real analysis and lessons, good and bad, along the way.

Next up will be Oracle, which I purchased in late July, but is relevant today as I determine whether or not to hold it into earnings this week.