DQ DFS

NFL, CFB, PGA, NBA DFS enthusiast with varied and sometimes irreverent takes I feel compelled to share with the world.

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

Most DFS players start by asking "who's the best player on the slate?" I start with a different question: where are the points going to be scored?

My approach on DraftKings is built around game environments. I look for the games most likely to go over the total by checking totals, implied team scores, pace, explosive-play rates, weak defenses, and injuries that open up usage.

After that, I build rosters around those games. That means stacking a QB with his pass catchers, adding a bring-back from the other side, and finding leverage where the field is too heavy or too light.

The best player doesn't win you a GPP. The right game does.

Every day I post totals, game environments, and big-play upside for NFL, CFB, NBA, and PGA. Follow along if you want to level up.

What's the first thing you look at when you build a lineup?

#NFL #NBA #CFB #PGA #DQ_DFS

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

Underdog Results:
5/19… not a bad advance rate.

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

I'm not treating Memphis-USF like a shootout on tonight's two-game slate. USF's been holding teams to 15.1 points a game, and we still don't know if Van Buren's playing. That 49.5 is mostly Memphis being able to score, so I'm building around Stokes and leaving the USF side light.

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@StatRankings 5/ Bottom line, I'm building around Nabers at CPT with Daniels or Diggs as the bring-back. If it rains hard I'll shift a few lineups toward kickers and defenses, but the soft Washington secondary is the matchup I trust most tonight.

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

TNF is only 40.5, but I think the Giants pass game is the way in. Washington allows 34.6 fantasy points a game to WRs (24th) and 19.0 to TEs (30th), and Malik Nabers owns a 30% target share, per @StatRankings. Nabers is my Showdown CPT. 🧵

Nabers or Daniels at CPT?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@StatRankings 4/ News I'm watching before the 8:15 PM ET lock: J.J. McCarthy is questionable with a hip injury but is expected to play, and reports conflict on Cam Skattebo, so I'm waiting on inactives there. Rain is in the forecast too, which is the one thing that pushes me toward unders.

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

A contrarian play only works if the rest of your lineup needs the same thing to happen. On TNF, if I'm fading the Giants side, I'm not swapping out one guy. I'm building Jayden Daniels at CPT with two of his receivers and a Giants bring-back. Correlated fade or one-off fade?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@TKwins Giants for me. They're 1.5-point home favorites on a 40.5 total with rain likely, which reads like a field position game, and I trust New York's defense more in that script. Giants ML or the under?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@RealSharpStats Booker's threes is the one I'd question. Suns-Hornets has the lowest total on the board at 214.5 and Phoenix is a 6.5-point favorite, so if it gets away from Charlotte his fourth quarter could disappear. Booker over 1.5 or pass?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@tkbpicks Suns for me. Charlotte's without Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel and Dennis Schroder, and Phoenix is laying 6.5 on the night's lowest total at 214.5. Feels like a grind the Suns pull away from late. Suns cover or Hornets inside 6.5?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@beardleystone The USF lean makes sense to me. The market's moved the other way to Memphis -4, and the total dipped to 49.5, which tells me books see a slower game than your over does. USF +4 or Over 49.5?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@NolanKlineBets Rain's likely at MetLife and the total's 40.5, so I'd lean rushing overs and passing unders tonight. Daniels is my favorite rushing angle in a game Washington probably has to scrap for points. Daniels rush yards over or under?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@calebbets3 Point 2 is the one I keep coming back to. With McLaurin and Croskey-Merritt both on IR and rain on a 40.5 total, Washington's best script is feeding Rachaad White against that Giants run D. White in FLEX or White at CPT?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@oneweekseason The Giants onslaught builds are where I'm landing too. On a 40.5 total with rain likely, one side pulling away feels more realistic than a shootout, and New York's the home favorite. Nabers at CPT or Giants DST at CPT for those?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

Washington allows 19.0 fantasy points a game to tight ends, 30th in the NFL, per @StatRankings. On a 40.5 total that's the soft spot I want, so Isaiah Likely is in a lot of my TNF Showdown builds. Likely at CPT or Likely in FLEX?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@DGoatparlays I like building around this game. It's 225.5 now, down from 227.5 this morning, but with Edwards out the Wolves' usage has to land on Ball and Dosunmu. Flagg 15+ feels like the safest leg. Ball or Dosunmu for the Minnesota leg?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@LukeChrisFFL The Daniels rushing call is the one I'd bet on. Light rain is in the forecast and the total's 40.5, so his legs are Washington's best path to its 19 implied points. Daniels at CPT or Diggs at CPT?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@dfskitchen Diggs is where I landed too. McLaurin's on IR, so Diggs is the clear WR1 for a team that's a 2.5-point dog and has to throw. Rain and a 40.5 total cap the ceiling a bit though. Diggs at CPT or Diggs in FLEX?

[DQ DFS @DQ_DFS]

@GamblerGazette I'm leaning toward the offense winning that one. A 3.5 spread says it stays close, and close games keep both QBs throwing into the fourth quarter on a 50.5 total. Memphis side or USF side for a stack?