Damian Querol Bonet

Más de 20 años en gestión y asesoramiento de inversiones. PDG por IESE. Títulos financieros internacionales FRM, CAIA, CEFA, CFTe. Opiniones personales

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

Entrevista en @EstrategiasTv al respecto de la actualidad de los #mercadosfinancieros

Gracias a @Mirellacalderon por la invitación.

Gracias también a @DeutscheBank por su soporte.

https://t.co/6oDmYnHPut

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

#Inflation patterns: Similarities between Inflation today and in the 1970s

- the speed and duration of inflation fluctuations in 1970s… basically the same than today

Do not repeat the same #mistakes of the 1970s: the Fed needs to keep rates high enough for long enough

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

#Interest #rates could be kept above 5% for much longer than investors are anticipating … perhaps until 2026 (!), a #KansasCityFed working paper suggests.

"#Monetary policy has only been restrictive since 2023:Q1.”

https://t.co/8JDvazrf3I

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

Given that a last-minute compromise is most likely, are the CDSs overestimating the problems in the fixed income #markets or the low #volatility -#VIX- is underestimating the impact of the fiscal shock in the #Equity markets?

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

#US #DEBT #CEILING negociations are rising the likelihood of a #FISCAL #SHOCK through a large-scale #budget cuts later this year. The fiscal adjustment that will be needed to achieve an agreement is a cut in non-interest spending by $150 billions inmediately (ann. 7% of US GDP)

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

In 2011 the S&P 500 fell more than 15% intra-year after a last-minute deal that resulted in fiscal tightening (#Budget #Control #Act 2011).

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

Banks tightening standards rise prior to #recessions: #Fed Senior #Loan Officer Opinion Survey Shows Tighter #Credit & Weaker #Business #Loan Demand

https://t.co/dRfazJrwsR

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

#Recession probabilities on the rise in 2023, especially after today’s US real #GDP publication advancing a modest 1.1% in Q1 – below #expectations

A sharp decrease of #inventories, one of the main causes of the weak Q1 growth data

#economy #cycles #centralbanks #GDP #growth

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

2s10s -108bps

[Vala Afshar @ValaAfshar]

Steve Jobs on the importance of focus and courage

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

Step by step the #CentralBanks will adjust their prospects until arrive to the #stagnation by year-end (especially in #Europe): Important cut of the #FED 2022 #GDP #growth prospect from 4.0% to 2.8%, while raising core #CPI from 2.7% to 4.1%

#banks #investment #stocks #equities

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

“It’s quite possible that year-over-year #inflation breaches the psychological benchmark of 10% by midsummer, causing a breakdown in confidence and hindrance to growth, particularly in more price-sensitive developing #markets.”

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

High probabilities of #Recession (#stagflation) in #Europe (Q4?): sharp increase in #energy #prices, potential for additional #supply disruptions, companies paralyzing #capex, consumer sentiment near 11-year low, real disposable income in a downward pressure

#markets #stocks

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

“Soaring #commodity #prices and #risk aversion in #financial markets are the main contagion channels, implying a global stagflationary #shock, with Europe being the most exposed region"

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

#Inflation & #margin erosion: Pricing power can be an antidote for #inflation

“Pricing power, always a positive for #companies that can sustain it, may be a crucial competitive advantage in the year ahead”

… via @CapitalGroup

#investing #investment #investments #equity

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

Back to the future on #inflation: Euro-area inflation rate turns positive for first time in six months... and more (supply inflation) to come according to the #industrial #commodity’ #prices

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

Worth reading: “This is not the kind of environment in which you would be buying with both hands.”

“The prospective returns are low on everything.”

“At @Oaktree, we are back to a cautious approach”

https://t.co/gIYFvY6mg6

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

#Diversification and #allocation: lessons from long term #asset #returns and #volatilities

https://t.co/mwiqdKeVSe

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

#SP500 vs #Corporate #Profits: las inyecciones de #liquidez de la #Fed (#QE), la principal explicación de la descorrelación entre #beneficios empresariales y evolución bursátil. Expansión de múltiplos extremo en 2020.

Necesidad de más estímulos para sostener los #mercados

[Damian Querol Bonet @dquerolb]

@nicolas_lopezm Enhorabuena Nicolás! Y enhorabuena también a @selfbank Singular Bank por la excelente incorporación. Fuerte abrazo y desearte lo mejor