Dr. Musah

A husband, Legal Practitioner, Researcher and an unrepentant Nigerian.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

@onyedikanambra @DemolaRewaju This your metaphor is killing yet very apt.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

@realDaranijo @reald Absolutely. And that's my worry.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

I hope the story will remain the same tomorrow, when those justifying the River state's of emergency are given a taste of what they cook in River state today!!!

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

@realDaranijo @reald For whomever it may concern. When an action is precipitated like this, it teaches future actors on how they too may use power when it comes to them. I hope I am clearer now.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

Governance must be with some civility. Tinubu can't be the last president of Nigeria. So, what goes around comes around

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

Truth be told, the Federal government is also complicit in the whole drama that led to the eventual declaration of state of emergency in River state.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

@IamOlajideAwe Happy birthday to you brother. Many Happy returns of today.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

@woye1 Your stand is understandable.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

@DeeOneAyekooto We all know what we are doing.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

@Qasim_a10 Masha Allah. Congrats brother.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

@jumokeakinjide Two realities in two miles apart. Nigeria hasn't been blessed with visionary leaders as China has been all along. We could have gotten it right in the early 60s but the abrupt termination of the first Republic threw us back. Ever since, it has been from frying pan to fire.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

@ShehuSani Having seen your unofficial move, when are you formerly porting most distinguished?

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

I agree with these your analysis and predictions. In as much the factors remain the same, nothing different from Edo will be replicated in Ondo and even beyond.

['Demola Olarewaju @DemolaRewaju]

My Political Predictions 2024 - Elections

Two key gubernatorial elections this year so I start from there: it will take several miracles of simultaneous incidents occurring timeously for PDP to win any of the two states with APCNEC in charge of elections.

Edo

The seeming consensus building around a key PDP candidate will be tested by the Oshiomhole forces but none will be as important to retain as the Deputy Governor. Shuaibu must be pacified, and appeased, and deployed into the thick of the campaign or PDP will lose.

Obaseki’s seeming control of the polity is not deep rooted enough to instal the next Governor. Too many quiet opponents inside and outside the party are waiting to be wooed by either him or Oshiomhole. By fielding an Esan candidate, the first battle of moral ground has been won and APC has to first scramble for an appropriate candidate response.

However, PDP’s failure to call the bluff of Nyesom Wike will make Edo even more of a battleground. He has a point to prove in that state, he has another point to prove to PDP and yet another point to prove to APC. If the APC candidate has a Wike connection then Wike has four points to prove, where three points exist already.

The name Fayemi keeps coming up in my political mind in connection with Edo, not Ondo, for some weird reason. Someone will attempt to draft him into that particular race. If Fayemi is given the Edo State election to prove his worth and loyalty to the Tinubu admin, PDP will lose.

Tinubu will deploy every federal resource behind Oshiomhole to prove the point of political dominance and retire the “Edo no be Lagos” slogan permanently.

If Tinubu, Oshiomhole, Wike and Fayemi all align on Edo - APC wins.

If Obaseki 1. appeases even the smallest chicken in PDP behind the candidate, 2. takes the battle to APC on all fronts including the electoral umpire, 3. rallies a national coalition effort behind his attempt to instal his successor and 4. woos Labour Party and it’s candidate as an ally: PDP wins Edo. Surmounting the APCNEC hurdle is the unknown factor.

Ondo

Ondo has an even worse permutation path for PDP, off the ego of two men: Mimiko and Jegede.

Wike allies in the SW aka Seyi Makinde will do anything to stop a Jegede emergence from within PDP and if he somehow manages to win the ticket, he will need Adeleke and Mimiko solidly behind him to stand a chance at victory.

APC Ondo is however very disjointed but Tinubu’s gamesmanship and the awesome powers of the presidency to reward political acquiescence are crucial. Lucky Aiyedatiwa will want to contest and may be allowed to emerge if he is able to 1. quickly build a political base for himself that cuts across the various tendencies in APC, especially Aketi supporters 2. Rally the people to his side and 3. Have a top APC power stakeholder on his side, one whom Tinubu cannot say “no” to.

The problem is he will be given only few months to do these three things before Tinubu’s preferred candidate starts to emerge.

If Lucky gains traction in those months, he will be invited to Aso Rock for appeasement and alternative offers. If despite the offer he is confident and visible enough in his workings and insists on running, he may force Tinubu’s hand to support him. Tinubu has however evaluated him up close and found him weak. His ‘political will’ will therefore be tested until the last minute.

Alternately, if he is unable to gain traction, he will not even be directly afforded the courtesy of being told to step down but the signs that another candidate is preferred will be openly clear to him. If he still insists on running despite not gaining traction, to the point of contesting on another platform, he will at that point be invited for appeasement and alternative offers.

Elections under Tinubu and APCNEC will largely be a one-sided affair by rigging and Edo and Ondo will surely first be a battle of public narratives on the umpire or APC wins every single one.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

No matter where our interest is, one must always know where to draw the line; between fraud and integrity, due process and abuse of powers. Because what goes around do come around.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

EDO 2024: what is amazing in the whole thing is that almost all the registered voters in Edo North came out to vote.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

I hope Mr. President's address is going to bring hope, tackle some of the challenges raised by the protesters and bring about stability in the polity.

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

It appears these ones do not even understand why they are even protesting against the protest.

[Africa Independent Television @AIT_Online]

#EndBadGovernance: Anti-protest campaigner complains of hunger in Abuja

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

I thought there was supposed to be oro in Lagos today!!!

[Dr. Musah @dr_musah]

@BashirAhmaad Aamin thuman Aamin. May Allah swt be pleased with her soul.