Draftline Capital

Contract advance loans for pro & college athletes. Funded in 48hrs. Helping the next generation of pros handle the business side of sports.

[Pat McAfee @PatMcAfeeShow]

"Let's get back to the percentages conversation..

I can't believe he said that" 😂😂 ~ @JJWatt

#PMSLive

[Draftline Capital @Draftlinecap]

It’s easily quantifiable:

Players A and B play same position and are in transfer portal. Player A is better. FSU reaches out and gets no response. Player A signs with new school for $150K. FSU now has to land player B and offers $550K. Player B signs with FSU. Player A is all conference. Player B has barely recorded any stats.

[Draftline Capital @Draftlinecap]

In my role as co founder and managing partner of Draftline I speak with NIL and rev-share decision makers and NFL agents every day. I love this program, so here's a direct message to FSU leadership, boosters and fans.

Bobby Bowden built a standard at Florida State: 14 straight top-five finishes, two national titles, and a program recruits grew up dreaming about. Every decision made in Tallahassee should protect that standard.

Right now, leadership is lowering it. 10–21 since the 2023 ACC title. 14 straight losses away from Doak. And the reason we keep hearing for accepting it is the buyout.

The actual numbers say we can't afford to keep

Here's what the cost of losing:

• ~$15M a year in added roster (suck tax) and staff spend (no one wants to coach with a dead man walking)
• $7–8M a year in ticket revenue a winning season or new coach excitement brings back
• Season tickets down 18% since 2023
• Booster donor base down 17%
• 2027 recruiting class 43rd nationally, with zero offensive linemen
• No permanent AD since September, and our CFO/Rev Share whiz kid just left for Iowa State

That's $22M+ a year spent to not fire Norvell.

And the upside is real. The ACC lets schools keep 100% of their playoff money. A deep CFP run plus a full Doak is worth $20–28M in a single season.

The buyout is a one-time cost. Drift compounds: in recruiting, in the portal, in donor checks that don't renew.

To leadership: make the decision now. Waiting costs more than it saves.

To Stephen Ponder and @SeminoleBooster: Instead of worrying about what people are posting about you it’s time to line up the commitments now, so the buyout doesn't come out of the operating budget that funds our other 20 sports.

To fans: renew, show up and stay loud. The next coach is selling this program to recruits the day he's hired.

We've been here before, and Florida State always comes back. But it takes a decision not hiding. #Noles

@PresMcCullough @Seminoles

[Draftline Capital @Draftlinecap]

@Noles_Illini @RonMexico305 @JimDeBeaugrine @Noles247 @Warchant @OsceolaDaily @JCameronShow @Osceola_Jerry @MattBakerCFB @RossDellenger @trey_rowland59 I am speaking to the 2027 season and beyond and how much more it would cost Norvell to have the same roster as another coach.

[Kirby Lupul— 😼 🏆 🏆 😼 @KJ_Lups]

While Seth Jones has had good starts throughout his career (7 to 8 points in the opening month of prior seasons)

This 🎃 October 🎃 Jones is setting a career Oct high: 12 GP, 1 Goal, 14 Assists , 15 Points 🙌🏻

1️⃣ more game for Panthers before the end of the month #FlaPanthers

[Luke Loucks @lukeloucks]

@CBBcontent Well, that wasn’t the whole pitch …

Shon has all the talent in the world and works hard on his game. His shot selection and defense are getting better every day. Go look at the LSU game. Kid is going to be alright!!!!

[David Hall @DHallNole]

Easiest decision to make would be hiring Jimbo for HC and Woodward as AD. Give them both 4-5 year deals with low buyouts. They're both getting millions from their previous employers, so they don't need the money. They'd get to work together and focus on FSU Football. #GoNOLES!

[Draftline Capital @Draftlinecap]

@BudElliott3 @jakerosenberg33 built his entire company based around the fact that the old search firms make horrendous suggestions on candidates in today’s world of college athletics.

[NO CRYING IN THE CASINO @TheQuantClips]

The airline problem for GPUs:
Citadel's CEO Ken Griffin

"GPUs, like airlines, have a very low marginal cost to run. Like the incremental seat on an airline that's not full, if you can sell that ticket for $20, you're making money in that seat."

"That's one of the reasons that the airline industry is such a nightmare: the moment you have overcapacity, pricing goes into freefall."

"We saw this actually with the telecom build out back in 2000."

"We built more fiber than we had demand for, and the price of telecommunications just went straight down."

"If we reach a point where the provisioning of GPUs exceeds demand for GPUs, marginal pricing will actually go into free fall. And that really upends all the investment assumptions that people are working with today."

"Right here, right now, there's people that are earning extraordinary pricing on GPUs that are five or six years old. That probably doesn't persist for another five or six years."

[Draftline Capital @Draftlinecap]

The $15m is the extra money the university, athletics and boosters will have to spend in keeping this staff in place. A $35m roster for Norvell is very different from a talent perspective than a $35m for Kirby, etc.

This doesn’t even take into account that an overwhelming majority of elite talent won’t even answer the phone when FSU calls.

[Ron Mexico @RonMexico305]

@JimDeBeaugrine @Draftlinecap @Noles247 @Warchant @OsceolaDaily @JCameronShow @Osceola_Jerry @MattBakerCFB @RossDellenger @trey_rowland59 FSU spends ≈30m for 20m results. Some cases (ie 2-10) even less than 20m results. That lands you at a suck tax of 10-15m. FSU has routinely underperformed relative to its budget and what similar budgets result in, on average.

[Tallahassee Democrat @TDOnline]

Opinion: Florida State once set the standard. Today, we are struggling to meet it. https://t.co/3xSXWxIupE

[Chris Russo, CPA, MBA, JD @theoraclecpa]

Makes perfect sense. OPPORTUNITY COSTS of keeping this loser FAR outweigh the payout.

[Draftline Capital @Draftlinecap]

@PharmDNole @CjWilson850 @Noles247 @Warchant @OsceolaDaily @JCameronShow @Osceola_Jerry @MattBakerCFB @RossDellenger @trey_rowland59 It’s for a competitive roster that can contend for a title. Norvell needs $45m for that. Another staff will need ~$35m

[Draftline Capital @Draftlinecap]

For this staff to acquire and retain talent it will have to overpay at a rate that exceeds Norvells buyout. For this staff to field a roster that can win 10+ games it will need to spend $45m+. That same roster can be built by another staff for $32-$35m.

This doesn’t even take into account that elite talent will not come no matter what price we offer.

[Brendan Sonnone @BSonnone]

This reminds me of The Core Theory (from The Big Short).

A lot of people think the largest risk you inherit when you invest is that investment hitting $0 and losing 100% of investment.

BUT the theory goes that it's actually riskier to sell too early and miss on highest ROI possible.

Missing on chances to truly optimize a potential revenue booster for the university/city and surrounding businesses is far riskier to me than inheriting any financial risk of the unknown that comes with blowing it all up.

[Bud Elliott @BudElliott3]

It’s been 50 years since we had this few teams undefeated at this point in the season.

It’s awesome.

Everyone has a chance now.

And if you’re a traditional power managed by idiots you’re not safe.

[F̴̛̟̹͎͖̜̱̩̥̍͑̓̓̕S̷̛̤̪̼̺̥̱͙͂̾͘Ư̶̟̗̪̼̟͚̎͌̕ @RegalNole]

“How did we get here? Who authorized these commitments? What financial oversight existed? And who is accountable for the consequences?” @PresMcCullough and Peter Collins?

[Voices of WW2 @VoicesofWW2]

Richard Winters and Easy Company at the Eagle's Nest in the Bavarian Alps, 1945.

[Draftline Capital @Draftlinecap]

@PresMcCullough Doeren has 7 more wins than Coach Norvell over the last 3 years. Where is the FSU standard? Or are you obtuse to what that means?

Whatever else you accomplish at FSU, how you handle @FSUFootball right now will define your tenure.

[Pete Thamel @PeteThamel]

NEWS: NC State has fired coach Dave Doeren. The firing comes in the wake of a loss at Stanford on Friday night. He went 98-74 over his 14 seasons there. NC State is 3-4 and 1-3 in ACC after the Stanford loss.