Drake Shrader

The Fantasy Football / Collectibles crossover you’ve always wanted. Breaking NFL Sports Cards on @Jetbreakers and @DrakeyBreaksNFL TikTok!

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@BarrySanders @Lions @NFL @PaniniAmerica Derrick Moore that dude 🔥

[SlabSquatch Sports Cards @WaxMetrix]

2025 Topps Cosmic Chrome NFL Analysis

Keeping this one shorter than usual as I have a ridiculous amount of analysis to do over the next few days.

If you are a fan of Cosmic, you know what you're getting. This one has everything you expect from the brand.

If you are not hip to the Cosmic game, you're getting a fantastic looking product with a cohesive theme, centered around rare inserts with autos being the cherry on top.

Part 1: The Basics

Cosmic NFL drop via EQL tomorrow- Friday June 19th.

Drop price is $650/box.

Well, that didn't take long. We have our first WTF.

Though Cosmic is always popular, we really need to install some goalposts here. The NBA version of this product, with its epic rookie class, pre-sold at $580 but then took a ridiculous jump for release day to something like $750.

It didn't take long for people to realize it's pretty easy to get massacred at that price. Prices remained stagnant from there. These can still be snagged for $800 on ebay.

Topps is effectively attempting to put flippers out of business. And $650/box for a lackluster NFL class should make moves to accomplish that goal.

Part 2: Production numbers

Total cards in product:
4,632,600

Compare this to 2025 Cosmic NBA:
6,355,200

At least they made 27% less of this than the NBA version. As they should.

Total Production by format:
Hobby- 57,770 boxes (7,221 cases)

In addition, we have what has come to be known as a Cosmic staple- the elusive Lunar Boxes. Extremely tough to hit, these "God boxes" are some of the most exciting and valuable chases in the hobby, and these are even better than usual.
Typically, each PACK of a Lunar Box contains a blood-red Lunar Parallel /10 and a better chance at hits than a typical box. Based on odds, Lunar Boxes in NFL also contain 5 autos/box. Not a typo. They went from a "better chance at autos" to a full-blown auto extravaganza.

Total Lunar boxes produced:
~138

This means your odds of landing a Lunar Box are
1 in ~420 boxes (1 in 52.5 cases)

If you are lucky enough to pull one of these, you won't know until you crack the seal and notice the packs say "Lunar". At that point...take a deep breath. You have a decision to make. Those packs sell for a few hundred each, making an entire box worth maybe $6k give or take. Congrats, you won life that day.

Part 3: Heat Map

Here's what you can expect from a box of Cosmic NFL:
0.34 autos (1 in 3 boxes should contain an auto, or 2.7 autos/case.)
5.4 parallels
10.6 inserts
2.4 numbered cards

Lunar Box:
5 autos
26.4 parallels
14.75 inserts
30.6 numbered cards
An infinite amount of Aura.

Now let's cut to the real chase- Rare Inserts.

Cosmic is busting at the seams with rare inserts, and many of them are amazing. For Cosmic NFL, the rare insert list will include Light Years, Cosmic Dust, Cos-Play, Supernova, Starfractor, Planetarium, and the wildly popular Planetary Pursuits. I suppose we could also include Constellations in this, although they are technically parallels here.

Your chances of pulling a rare insert from a box is better than your chance of pulling an auto. Combining all the rare inserts listed above, one of these should fall 1 in ~1.75 boxes, or 4.6 per case. 57% of boxes should contain a rare insert.

Planetary Pursuits alone should fall 2.1 per case with ~47% being the most common variety, Sun.

As far as the checklist goes, namely for Planetary Pursuits..I think it's solid. Maybe not amazing. I love that Mahomes has Planetaries. Those will hit hard.

I have to wonder when Topps will get rights for Mahomes autos. I know I'm a homer being from KC and all, but the lack of Mahomes autos leaves a serious void in current licensed NFL products. Meanwhile Panini is laughing in their face and producing a product the price of a car that's basically all Mahomes autos. It's like trying to put a quick 10k miles on that rental car just because you can.

Part 4: Value Map
Based on drop pricing of $650.

$/card: $8.13
$/parallel: $121.04
$/auto: $1,911.76
$/numbered card: $270.83

Part 5: What Would the Squatch Do?

First let me clarify- I love me some Cosmic. Cosmic boxes are some of the most fun to rip in the hobby. They can also be a gigantic kick in the nuts.

Not so long ago, when they were $300-$400, this was
doable. At $650+, that fun turns to stress real quick.

If I were planning to flip these, I'd be worried. They might do fine. Then again, they might not.

I'm sure the "La Carda Nostra" trinity of Topps/Blowout/DA will manipulate the resale market to appear like they're spking in price. Cosmic NBA appeared to be over $1k/box for about 5 minutes too. Don't buy into it.

It sucks that the joy has largely been squeezed out of these for rippers. Because they truly are a fun rip at the right price. I think that price is somewhere south of $650.

This one screams "Buy singles!" If I'm joining the party, I'm saving the stacks I would have used to rip a few boxes and buying some cool rare inserts of my guys.

Planetary Pursuits are phenomenal. Constellations are outstanding. Planetariums are extraordinary. Supernovas, Starfractors, Cosmis Dusts...it's like a candy factory of rare inserts.

Maybe that means some will end up being affordable because there are so many options. That's what I'm doing with Cosmic. Let everyone else get kicked in the beanbag while I cherry pick my PC cards.

Part 6: Print Runs

Base cards per player:
~25,250

Base rookies:
~11,580 ea

Unnumbered parallels:
Refractor- ~580 ea
Nucleus- ~300 ea
White Hole- ~75 ea
Rookie Refractors- ~580 ea
Rookie Nucleus- ~300 ea
Rookie White Hole- ~75 ea

Unnumbered Inserts:
Light Speed (35 card CL)- ~5,515 ea
Extraterrestrial Talent (25 card CL)- ~5,790 ea
Stars in the Night (25 card CL)- ~5,780 ea
Star Clusters (15 card CL)- ~5,515 ea

Rare Inserts:
Light Years (20 card CL)- ~83 ea
Cosmic Dust (20 card CL)- ~83 ea
Cos-Play (25 card CL)- ~83 ea
Supernova (25 card CL)- ~83 ea
Constellation (100 card CL)- ~24 ea
Starfractor (100 card CL)- ~35 ea
Planetarium (25 card CL)- ~86 ea

Planetary Pursuits (10 card CL):
Sun- ~725 ea
Mercury- ~360 ea
Venus- ~180 ea
Earth- ~120 ea
Mars- ~72 ea
Jupiter- ~36 ea
Saturn- ~18 ea
Uranus- ~9 ea
Neptune- ~5 ea
Pluto- ~4 ea

Unnumbered Autos:
Cosmic Chrome Base Autos (68 card CL)- ~40 ea
(I know. The odds say these are easier to pull than Green Space Dust Autos /75, so how can there be less of them? These are never all inserted into a product. Some are withheld for damage replacements, or it's possible not every player signed certain parallels. Whatever the reason, only ~30 of each Green /75 are inserted into the product. Additionally, only ~36 of each Gold /50 are inserted. This is not uncommon. I've talked about this in the past and it's just not worth dwelling on. This will not make the expected pull rate of autos go down.)

Solar Flare Signatures (26 card CL)- ~50 ea
Equinox Autos (29 card CL)- ~45 ea
First Flight Signatures (25 card CL)- ~50 ea

#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025CosmicChromeNFL

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@WaxMetrix @TheCardLifeTV This is so sick! Love seeing the good ones highlighted / showcased in media. 🤝🔥

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@DGro69634274 @CardPurchaser Yes

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@WaxMetrix Great article as always- thanks for the read 🫡

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@meganbjulian @MelanieMMonks 🔥🔥🔥

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@DMRussini

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

SICKKKK

[NASA's Kennedy Space Center @NASAKennedy]

The planet can spell your name – literally. 🔤🌍

This Earth Day, see your name written in landscapes captured by Landsat: https://t.co/kcP12dhsI2

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

Been waiting for a day like today for years 😍

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@BarbellBreaks The other one will be a rookie / Sunday kings 😭

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

“Passed away has Chuck Norrised” 😥

[TMZ @TMZ]

🕊️ Chuck Norris has died at 86. https://t.co/iEc9C997Ik

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@Swaggnon @CardPurchaser Had 6 boxes left- just decided we would rip them all together in one break- most equitable way for everyone to hunt / and for me to sell the other 5 lmao

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@youselsayed @Swaggnon @CardPurchaser Those redemption triggers are crazy 🤯

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@viperguy_82 @Whatnot Happened to me last week. Pulled a long time customer a massive hit but lost $600 ish on the two hobby boxes.
Team went for $17 😳

Needless to say we been running retail and working great 😂

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

Dolphins betting all their chips on “The Great 2027 Salary Cap Reset”

[Ari Meirov @MySportsUpdate]

The #Dolphins will have over $165M in dead money on their 2026 salary cap this upcoming season.

More than $165M of a $301.2M cap will be devoted to players no longer on the team.

That includes Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jalen Ramsey, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and several others.

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@SuperrNova38 @FantasyReceipts Part of it is unfortunately the types of job postings they create- advertising “part time social media work and “owning your favorite teams channel”

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@PapaJoshFFB Preach 🎉 Most underestimate the time it takes to clip up shows and post the content in short form as well. Takes time to grow audiences but even more so to tune what type of content You want to make yourself 🤝

[Drake Shrader @DrakeyBreaks]

@DynastyPrice We have a dynasty salary cap superflex league I would love for an outsider to take a look at!