IMO: Three possible outcomes to the Iran war:
Option 1
The war ends right away.
Iran gets some of what it wants (repayment for damage done), US army bases out of Middle East, assurances it will never be attacked again.
Fed cuts rates. Banks loosen, markets recover back to the way they were.
The USD will survive but be weaker than it was.
However Iran and Russia will still sell oil to BRICS nations in yuan, Saudi Arabia will still buy gold through Switzerland etc. the world will be different the dollar will not be a hegemony.
Option 2
The war goes on longer (a month or more)
Hormus stays closed longer.
Things start to break.
Foreign holders of US Treasuries have to sell to buy energy and food.
Credit crisis like 2008.
Job layoffs. Stock market drops.
Option 3
War drags on even longer
The big print aka yield curve control.
The Fed has to intervene or the Bond market collapses taking down the western world with it.
However, we have never seen a QE big print with oil at $100+. It’s always happened with cheap oil.
Nobody knows what the outcome will be some believe stagflation.
Printing money with cheap oil increases asset prices. Printing money with expensive oil is called hyperinflation.