dsmarsha

Physician, armchair economist, student of probability.

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

Two Hands on the Same Lever https://t.co/EhUjbiJ5bJ

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

The Wrong Reason for Five Percent https://t.co/RNeZL4U5M8

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

The End https://t.co/Pq2us8YQZf

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

@DiMartinoBooth Expected value assumes you keep playing. The moment one outcome is absorbing (death, ruin, a margin call at the low) the average stops describing you. Thorp: never bet so much that one loss takes you out. The gap between that bet and the "optimal" one is the price of surviving.

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

@ProfessorPape Regimes facing extinction don't maximize. They survive, at any expected cost. That's why Tehran traded a bombable nuclear program for an unbombable strait. Model a state as an EV-maximizer and it surprises you. Model it as a ruin-avoider and it doesn't.

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

The Ruler Belongs to Someone Else https://t.co/uQ2OMlPRNb

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

A Parachute That Opens Sometimes https://t.co/WddeadwxJv

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

@FinanceLancelot Building your portfolio around Gamestop is a great idea. I have always thought that.

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

The Body Count Was Excellent https://t.co/n0VwAIXGLN

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

Cheap, Many, and Expendable https://t.co/SIBuIajqTn

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

@elonmusk Instrumental convergence is coherent. It also needs the system to be given a goal, given autonomy, given resources and left alone. Each of those is a human choice. Extinction is a stretch. Unpredictable outcomes aren't. Set something aside. Stay in for the upside

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

@FinanceLancelot @FaceNationCBS A model doesn't wake up needing food, money, shelter or its kids safe. Every machine villain in film is a human with those drives in a metal body. The real risk path runs through a person with a capable tool. The software is the amplifier. The signal is us.

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

@FinanceLancelot AI extinction is a stretch. Unknown outcomes are a certainty. Those are different claims. Nobody at the first cotton mill had a word for atmospheric carbon. The answer to a fourth-quadrant risk isn't a forecast. It's 2% a year in puts and staying invested for the rest.

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

The Fourth Quadrant Has a New Tenant https://t.co/2CtXjR0laQ

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

@SantiagoAuFund Two authors, two well-sourced stories, opposite directions, each confirming the book the author already owns. Sunday it was the Great Reset. Today it's the milkshake. DXY is 99 either way. Gold's weekly trend is confirmed. That's the only sentence in either piece you can trade

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

Efficient or Robust? https://t.co/HGWnisri6t

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

You Have to Survive! https://t.co/IxFIayly7I

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

@SternDrewCrypto Capital fleeing to what can't be printed is why the book holds gold. Capital also fled into the dollar in 1982, the year Dalio predicted the opposite and nearly lost the firm. Hold both ends. Forecasts are the middle you can skip.

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

@SternDrewCrypto "They will monetize the debt" has been Dalio's line since 2010. Gold has done fine. So has the S&P, up about 6x since. Both can be true because "will" has no date. Structure your book for the mechanism. Don't structure it around the timing of a man who called 1982 a depression

[dsmarsha @dsmarsha]

@SternDrewCrypto Dalio's scariest line in 1982 was "depression." The bull market started the next month and he had to borrow from his dad to make payroll. Debt monetization is a real mechanism. So is being early by 15 years. Own some gold; don't own the forecast.