Andrew Collins

Paid acquisition for apparel and footwear brands. Returns-adjusted ROAS. Q4 built in Q2. The process behind profitable spend.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

Google has two clothing try-ons, and they pull different photos.

The older one drapes the garment on models Google shot itself, XXS to XXXL. The newer "Try it on" button puts it on a photo of the shopper.

Model try-on: your Merchant Center images, free listings and Shopping ads, paid-ad opt-out through Google support

"Try it on": your website's images via Google Image Search, nothing under "Sponsored," opt-out by a form any domain owner can file

That makes the product-page photo a try-on input, not just the feed photo. A mid-twirl shot or the wrong colorway on the page can end up on a stranger's body.

Only the model one checks your size run: Google shows model sizes "consistent with each brand's available inventory." The Try it on page says its image "does not determine or guarantee the actual fit," and when the 6 is sold out, the exchange she asks for turns into a refund.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

Your apparel store may already have "Too big" and "Too small" as return reasons. You didn't set them up.

Shopify now suggests return reasons by product category.

Per Shopify's Jan 16 changelog, it's automatic and shows in admin, POS, self-serve returns and the Shop app.

That's good for size data and bad for month-over-month charts. If the size reasons arrived as new values, a break in the trend can be a label change, so check the labels before you read the trend.

Then export the last 30 days of returns by reason and sort "Too big" and "Too small" by product. That's the size-chart to-do list.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

lululemon takes back Oct 13 to Dec 24 purchases until Jan 23. That's the holiday return window to compare against.

Its help center says purchases made between Oct 13 and Dec 24 can be returned or exchanged until Jan 23. Outside that window the rule is 30 days from delivery for online orders, or from purchase for store orders.

That is 102 days for an Oct 13 order and 30 days for a Dec 24 order.

The page also lists the conditions: unwashed and unworn with hangtags, shoes can be worn if they're in the box, and customized product is final sale.

For your own policy:

• Put the end date on the returns page, the order confirmation and the returns portal.

• List the exclusions in the same place as the date.

• Match it in Merchant Center. The return policy window extension takes a date range, a number of days and a "no later than" date.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

€2 per item, from Nov 1, on goods shipped to EU shoppers from outside the EU. Returns don't refund it.

Irish Revenue said on Sept 29 that from Nov 1 the EU adds a Union Handling Fee of €2 per distinct item on goods shipped from outside the EU. It sits on top of the €3 duty per item that has applied since July 1.

The business filing the customs declaration pays it, and may pass it to the shopper.

On returns, Revenue's wording is blunt: the handling fee is not refundable, even when the goods are faulty. The €3 duty isn't refundable unless the goods are faulty.

A three-item apparel order costs €15 in fees before VAT. If that order comes back, the fees don't.

Revenue's example: two identical pens count as one item. Ask your customs broker how two sizes of the same shirt count.

What to check before Sunday:

• Whether your checkout shows duty and the fee, or leaves them for the courier at the door.

• Whether your return policy says who absorbs them.

• Whether your EU size exchanges are worth the extra fee on the way back.

Free returns just got a line item.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

A UK study of 147 fashion orders found nearly four in five return portals offer no exchange. Check whether yours does.

parcelLab, which sells post-purchase software, placed real orders with leading UK fashion retailers and made every return. Its report says most portals "force shoppers into a return-and-refund loop," losing the chance to keep the sale with a size or colour swap.

Two more numbers from the same test:

• Refunds took 7.8 days on average after drop-off. Just over half landed within four to seven days, and about three in ten took up to two weeks.

• Just over half of retailers absorb the cost of mail-in returns. Among those that charge, the average fee is £3.30.

It's UK data and a vendor's own study, so use it as a benchmark, not a US average.

2-minute check: start a return on your own store and see if "exchange for a different size" is an option. Then ask your team how long a refund takes.

A refund-only portal asks the customer to buy the same item twice.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

A 30-day return window on a Black Friday order ends Dec 27. That's when Adobe sees returns spike.

Adobe's data from last holiday season, via Retail Dive in January: returns were projected to rise 25 to 35 percent from Dec 26 to Dec 31, compared with earlier in the season.

Adobe also expected returns to stay elevated by 8 to 15 percent in the first two weeks of January.

This year Adobe forecasts US online apparel sales of $51.3 billion from Nov 1 to Dec 31, with the deepest apparel discounts landing on Black Friday, Nov 27.

Do the date math on your policy:

• Black Friday order, 30-day window: closes Dec 27.

• Cyber Monday order (Nov 30), 30-day window: closes Dec 30.

• Both close in the heaviest week for returns, and the people holding gifts for Dec 25 don't know they're on a clock.

Decide now whether to extend holiday windows into January, and what that does to your restock plan. Adobe's numbers are from last season, so treat them as the shape, not the forecast.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

Mail-in returns see 6x the fraud of in-person drop-off, says a returns vendor. Check your refund timing.

Happy Returns and Wyllo published a 2026 return fraud report built on Wyllo network data from January 2025 through April 2026.

Both sell return fraud tools, so read it with that in mind. Their numbers:

• Mail-in returns see 6x the fraud rate of in-person, box-free, label-free drop-offs.

• Item verification at drop-off cuts fraud by at least 85 percent.

• Nearly 1 in 5 fraudulent returns comes from organized networks.

The report also says the share of shoppers flagged as risky is small, around 1 percent.

That's an argument for targeted checks, not for a tighter policy on everyone.

What to check before Black Friday:

• When your refund fires: on label creation, on first carrier scan, or after the item is checked in.

• Whether you can hold the refund for flagged returns only.

• Whether your highest-ticket sizes and styles get the same handling as a $20 tee.

Read the 85 percent the way you'd read a smoke detector ad written by a smoke detector company.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

Same products, 12x the returns on Amazon, says one seller. The only difference is who pays for the return label.

From r/ecommerce this month:

• u/Working-Standard-642: "on Amazon where prepaid returns are mandatory, our return rate is 12x our own site where customer arranges returns."

• u/dawhim1: "the more exepsnve for customer to return, the less the return rate."

That's not apparel, and it's one seller. But every apparel founder has felt the shape.

Free returns turn "maybe" orders into "order two sizes and send one back."

The catch for apparel is that you can't just charge for returns and walk away. Fit is a real problem, and a paid return on a size miss feels like a penalty for your size chart's mistake.

So the move most brands land on is splitting the policy: free exchanges for size, paid returns for change of mind. The customer pays for the decision they changed, and you pay for the fit you got wrong.

The size-chart math (formula, not a client):

1. Return cost per order = return rate × (return label + handling + resale markdown).

2. Run it twice: once with free returns, once with free size exchanges and paid refunds.

3. The difference between those two lines is what the return policy is costing you, separate from the size chart.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

If you fulfill your own Amazon orders, returns get a hard 7-day clock on Dec 18.

PPC Land reported on Oct 19 on an email Amazon sent to sellers. From Dec 18, every US return on a seller-fulfilled order, except heavy and bulky items, needs a prepaid return label.

Within seven calendar days of a return request, you either upload a label in the Manage seller-fulfilled returns workflow or issue a full refund without the item coming back.

If you do neither, Amazon may issue a returnless refund and deduct it from your account. Labels sent through buyer-seller messaging don't count.

PPC Land adds that the Seller Central help page, as captured on Oct 19, didn't mention the change yet.

Amazon's email has no send date. The deadline has one.

What to check:

• Which of your SKUs still return on address-only labels.

• Who looks at the returns queue every day, including the week after Christmas.

• Which items cost more to ship back than they're worth, so a returnless refund is a choice you made, not one Amazon made for you.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

Trustpilot says return anger comes from the surprise, not the fee. Show yours before checkout.

The Daily Mail reported on Oct 19 that returns are getting tighter.

Loop's data: about 68 percent of retailers now charge a return fee at least some of the time, up from 43 percent five years ago. Return windows at larger brands fell from 43 days to 38.

A Trustpilot executive told the WSJ the fiercest anger comes from a lack of transparency, not from the stricter rules themselves.

Trustpilot also found that mentions of return policies track with a drop of roughly 1.6 stars in merchant ratings. That's a correlation, not the measured cost of a fee.

For apparel, the surprise usually lands after the order: a fee on the label, a shorter window on holiday items.

Where to show it before they pay:

• On the product page, next to the size selector.

• In the cart, beside shipping.

• In the order confirmation, with the actual last return date.

Nobody has ever left five stars over a footer link.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

Your size chart is probably a JPEG.

Google's AI shopping assistant would like a word.

Merchant Center has a field called document_link. Up to five PDFs per product.

Google says it's "primarily intended for use in conversational experiences such as AI mode."

The PDFs you attach are used "to answer detailed user questions about the product."

Google's examples are manuals and package inserts. For apparel, the detailed question is always the same one: what size am I?

Practitioners on X keep circling it:

• @AIFRAME_: "a lot of what comes back is a fit miss and that gets decided on the product page... an agent can't read a Size Chart that's a JPEG."

• @Alex_Kranenburg: "Right size off a size chart... Boring stuff, but it's where shopping agents still trip."

So the chart that cost a designer an afternoon is unreadable to the assistant that's now answering your customer's sizing question.

It will answer anyway, from whatever it can find.

The fix is dull. Put the real measurements in text, fill size_system and size_type in the feed, and attach the size guide as a PDF where Google can crawl it.

The size-chart math (formula, not a client):

1. Fit returns = orders × return rate × share of returns tagged "fit."

2. Cost per fit return = outbound shipping + return shipping + handling + resale markdown.

3. Line 1 × line 2 is what an unreadable chart can cost you, and it grows with every order an assistant sizes for you.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

60% of brands are carrying more inventory than before tariffs hit, per Portless's tariff benchmark.

And nearly four in five saw margins shrink even after raising prices.

Vogue Business ran "How Tariffs Are Testing Indie Retail" on Oct 12. The advice everywhere is the same: buy smaller, buy more often.

In apparel, "buy smaller" hides a trap.

A smaller buy with the same size curve doesn't cut risk evenly. It cuts the sizes you sell out of and leaves the slow ones sitting.

The curve was set when duty was cheaper and a few spare XXS and XXL units didn't hurt. Now every unit carries the tariff from the day it lands, including the ones marked down in March.

So the extra inventory in that 60% is probably piled up at the edges of the size run. The XXS rack, still waiting for its moment.

The fix is the dull one: rebuild the curve from what sold through at full price, instead of from last year's order.

The size-run math (formula, not a client):

1. Full-price sell-through by size = units sold at full price ÷ units received, per size.

2. Duty sitting in leftovers = unsold units per size × landed duty per unit.

3. Cut the next buy hardest where line 1 is lowest, because that's where line 2 lives.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

Best size-chart feedback this week was one Reddit line: "A 6'0" male model can't possibly weigh 132lb lol."

A founder selling $29.99 oversized tees posted his rebuilt site to r/ecommerce for feedback.

He'd redesigned the product pages, improved size selection, and put free first size exchanges front and center.

Then a commenter read the model line under the photo. Height 6'0", weight 132 lb. The whole fit story fell over.

That line is the size chart most shoppers actually use. Nobody measures their chest.

People look at the model, think "I'm taller and heavier than him," and pick a size. If the model line is wrong, every size decision built on it is wrong too.

Another commenter did the other math: "$60 CAC on a $29.99 product." At that price, one size exchange can eat the margin on the order.

The size-chart math (formula, not a client):

1. Exchange cost = outbound shipping + return shipping + handling.

2. Margin left = price − product cost − CAC − (exchange rate × exchange cost).

3. Fix the model line before touching line 2. It's the cheapest variable in it.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

An apparel-adjacent store says one photo did more for returns than its size chart ever did.

It came up in an r/ecommerce thread this week asking what brought return rates down:

• u/dmdbGroup: "one photo per product: the item on a real person, unstyled, next to a tape measure. Not the pretty flat lay." They say their return rate dropped seven points in two months.

• u/HoneyedVices: "adding a photo of each product next to something everyday for scale cut those way down, way more than rewriting the dimensions in the description ever did."

Same complaint behind both: "smaller than expected."

Nobody reads a centimeter. Everybody understands a hand.

The second fix is the one I'd steal first.

u/dmdbGroup moved the return reason from the customer to the warehouse: "Customers lie on the form ('didn't like it'). Warehouse staff see the truth."

That matters because "didn't like it" sends you to the creative team, and "too small" sends you to the size chart. Wrong label, and you spend a year fixing the wrong thing.

The size-chart math (formula, not a client):

1. True fit returns = returns tagged "fit" by the warehouse, not the form.

2. Fit return cost = true fit returns × (two-way shipping + handling + resale markdown).

3. Re-run line 2 a month after adding the scale photo. The difference is what that photo is worth.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

If you ship apparel to US customers by mail from overseas, your Oct 22 deadline just moved.

On Oct 14, CBP pushed it to Jan 20, 2027.

The rule itself stays. Postal parcels that owe tariffs will need a new electronic entry, Entry Type 13, filed by the owner, the buyer, or a licensed customs broker.

CBP's words: "There are no changes to international mail entry procedures before Jan. 20, 2027."

So you get a holiday season of breathing room. And on Oct 8, CBP proposed extending the same entry and data requirements to all international mail packages.

Here's where apparel gets stuck.

The filing asks for things most style records don't hold cleanly: a 10-digit HTS code, country of origin, a real description. "Cute top" is not a description.

Fiber content drives the HTS code, and the HTS code drives the duty.

Wave PLM's advice is the boring one I'd follow: put HTS code, fiber composition and country of origin on every style record. Then you see the duty when you pick the fabric, before the invoice lands.

The landed-cost math (formula, not a client):

1. Landed cost per unit = factory price + freight per unit + duty (HTS rate × customs value) + broker fee per parcel ÷ units per parcel.

2. Run line 1 twice for your bestseller: shipped per order by mail, and shipped in bulk to a US warehouse.

3. The gap between the two is what January 20 costs you per unit if you do nothing.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

Google lets you set a return policy per product now. Skip one field and it advertises your returns as free.

The attribute is called [returns], and it overrides your account-level policy item by item.

For apparel that's useful: final-sale markdowns, swimwear, the one style that ships from a different warehouse.

Now the line every apparel brand should read twice. On return shipping, Google's help page says: "If not set, the default return shipping cost is 0."

Their own example spells it out. Leave shipping_fee out, and it "indicates a value of 0.00 USD."

So if your site charges a return label fee and your feed skips that field, Google is promising shoppers something your site isn't.

And the same page says values must exactly match your website, or the product gets disapproved.

Restocking fees work the same way. Blank means zero. Generous of Google, with your money.

Q4 is when brands add holiday return windows and final-sale tags in a hurry. That's exactly when a half-filled override goes live.

The size-chart math (formula, not a client):

1. Fee you charge per return = return label fee + restocking fee.

2. What Google shows when both fields are blank = 0.

3. Line 1 minus line 2 is the gap on every listing, and the disapproval risk sits in that gap.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

ChatGPT will now put your dress on a stranger's selfie. It still can't tell her which size to order.

Virtual try-on went live globally on Oct 1. Tap "Try on" on a clothing listing, upload a selfie, and ChatGPT renders the look.

OpenAI's own help page says what it isn't: try-on images "do not guarantee fit or size. Check the merchant's measurements, product details, and return policy before buying."

So try-on settles the question an apparel brand already answers well, which is whether it looks good. The question that drives returns, whether it fits, still lands on your size chart.

And a shopper who has just seen herself in the dress is more sure about the style, with the size as uncertain as ever.

The size-chart math (formula, not a client):
1. Cost of a fit return = outbound shipping + return shipping + handling + markdown on resale.
2. Fit returns per 100 orders = 100 × return rate × share of returns tagged "fit."
3. Line 1 × line 2 is what the size chart costs you per 100 orders, whatever drove the click.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

A sock brand and a dress brand should not share a ROAS target. Most apparel accounts give them one anyway.

Basics behave like groceries. Tees, socks and underwear wear out and get rebought in packs by someone who already knows their size, because fit got settled on the first order.

Seasonal fashion is a considered buy with a shelf life. The next order depends on a collection that doesn't exist yet, and returns run higher.

So the first order means different things. In basics it can be an acquisition cost, because the repeat is built into the product.

In fashion it has to pay closer to its own way.

Put both under one target and basics look disappointing while fashion looks fine, right up until the returns come back.

Finance pushes back hardest on basics, because it means paying for a repeat that hasn't happened yet. The argument gets made with last year's split, not a forecast.

The size-chart math (formula, not a client):
1. First-order break-even ROAS = 1 ÷ margin.
2. Rough break-even counting repeats = 1 ÷ (margin × (1 + repeat orders per customer in 12 months)).
3. Pull last year's new-vs-repeat revenue for your top basic and your top seasonal style.
4. Bid seasonal styles from line 1 and basics from line 2, as separate campaigns.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

Google built a Black Friday button for tROAS campaigns.

It turns itself off before an apparel brand finds out what the sale cost.

It's called Promotion mode, in beta on Search and Performance Max. You pick promo dates, loosen the ROAS tolerance, and optionally add daily budget.

Google's window runs 3 to 14 days, and then the target and budget snap back on their own.

While it's on, you're locked in. Search Engine Roundtable flagged the message Google shows: "You can't edit your Target ROAS while promotion mode is active."

Brian Lasonde named the worry under a LinkedIn post about the beta: "Locked targets worry me more than extra spend." Raju Kumar named the other one: the discount already raises your break-even, and promotion mode lets ROAS drop on the same days, so "black friday can look busy and still lose money."

Apparel adds a third problem on top of both: the tolerance gets judged on revenue booked inside the window. The returns from that window arrive after it has closed and the campaign is back on its normal target.

The week reads as a win in Google Ads, and the bill shows up in the returns portal weeks later.

The size-chart math (formula, not a client):

1. Break-even ROAS = 1 ÷ margin.
2. Raju's illustrative product: 40% margin at full price is 2.5. At 20% off it's 25% margin, so 4.0.
3. Apparel version: 1 ÷ (promo margin × keep rate), where keep rate is the share of promo revenue that isn't sent back.
4. Your target minus the tolerance is the ROAS floor for the window. It has to clear line 3 on day one, because you can't edit it once the window opens.

[Andrew Collins @DTCCollins]

Google Ads will accept a RESTATE on a returned order for 54 days.

Smart Bidding only reads that adjustment for seven.

Apparel returns land on days 20 to 60. That gap is the whole problem.

Every returns-adjusted ROAS thread stops at the diagnosis. Here is the fix, and it starts with picking a lane out loud.

Lane A is pure retroactive adjustments. Put an order ID on every purchase.

When the return clears, upload RESTATE for a partial keep or RETRACT for a full return. Reporting can catch up inside the 54-day window.

The bidder usually cannot. It already spent a week treating the dress as full-ticket revenue.

Lane B is modeled net value at purchase, corrected later.

At conversion time you send style-level expected keep value, not ticket price. When the return lands inside the windows, you RESTATE to the actual.

Bidding sees an honest number on day one. New styles with no history, and a December return spike fed an annual rate, both break that model.

Blended is the other failure mode.

An account return rate in the low thirties is often low teens on knitwear and over half on fitted dresses. A flat haircut shifts every campaign down the same percentage and changes no decisions.

Style-level rates are what make the algorithm notice the dress it loves is worth half its ticket.

The organizational sentence nobody puts in the deck: net-of-returns drops marketing's reported performance overnight, in a slide marketing presents, about a problem merchandising and fit created. That is why this still is not standard practice in 2026.

Net-of-returns lane check (fifteen minutes):

1. Pull return rate by style for the last 90 days, not the annual blend. Split July from December if you have both.
2. Count how many of last month's returns cleared after day 7 from purchase. That share is signal Lane A alone never fed the bidder.
3. Pick Lane A, Lane B, or Lane B with a Lane A backfill. Write the choice where finance and media both sit.
4. Expect six to eight weeks of noisy bidding after you flip the value. Starved styles and rescued styles both move.

If the answer in that channel is still "we look at ROAS after returns in a spreadsheet," the bidder is still optimizing fiction.