Daniel Tello

Amateur Apple analyst since 2001. @[email protected]

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

$AAPL Fiscal 4Q 2023 Final Estimates
https://t.co/pmPpemOODq
$91.9b revs - 44.5% GM - $1.45 EPS

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

33 years later, only getting started.

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

"Apple's late on VR"

25 years at it.

https://t.co/7jO2Tani2Y
https://t.co/bAxpV3pARa

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

No, × 𝕏 X, you idiots, I do not get it, nor will I learn more.

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

Where I tell you how wrong I’ve been (yes I’ll quote myself):“Hopefully [my] estimates are about done getting revised down.” Not just me, check out pro analysts: https://t.co/y4h2Q8SfME
Note trend contrast between Revs (left) and EPS (right), gotta respect those margins!

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

$AAPL Fiscal 4Q 2023 Final Estimates
https://t.co/pmPpemOODq
$91.9b revs - 44.5% GM - $1.45 EPS

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@volker_btc Thanks!

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@theAddledMind That's correct, thanks! I just had a crunch time setback migrating my Excel and now need to go over the whole spreadsheet, fixing all kinds of silly things.

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

Thanks for the kind words. Not posting this time, sorry! Hope to get back on it for next one. Good luck!

[tatanka @infoseeker12]

@dtellom Hello Daniel. I hope you are well. I’ve followed your work on  for many yrs now. It is very much appreciated. Are you going to be posting anything for todays earnings release?

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@AAPLTree If there was any capitalized development for iPhone (idk) it would be for a short time, no more than a year IMO, and you wouldn't notice any spikes in GM since that (small fraction of dev) would get amortized over several years.

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@AAPLTree @QuincyMercel I think most of that would be spent as incurred in R&D. Only final development, the period from achieved feasibility to sales is what I think could be capitalized (so capex, and would still be in 10K). They did that for Mac OS software way back when they sold it (maybe 2009?).

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@AAPLTree I think they could capitalize the R&D only once product feasibility is achieved but before sales to customers, I'd guess a year or so. Then yes amortize that through COGS over several years "useful life of the underlying technology".

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

$AAPL ATH in 3 weeks?
https://t.co/GmaEdHSYps

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@AAPLTree @QuincyMercel I suspect debt-funded buybacks not much of a thing since tax act (for tech) or covid restrictions lifted (travel, etc)

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@AAPLTree @QuincyMercel Ah yes, idk

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@AAPLTree @QuincyMercel Even at net cash zero can still do >$90b buyback no sweat

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@AAPLTree Right that's why GM is up over 200 bps from last year. But you were talking about FX impact, it's a headwind but not as big as for rev, which shouldn't be seen as odd given Apple cogs from all over the world.

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@AAPLTree COGS FX benefit partially offsets the rev headwind, still a net headwind from FX y/y, but flat or even slightly positive sequentially.

[Daniel Tello @dtellom]

@AAPLTree It's flat sequentially, the revs impact is y/y. Also GM has an FX benefit from foreign-based COGS