M

[M @dthtown]

@EnergyCredit1 Had a colonoscopy at age 38 and they removed a 1.1mm polyp that had decent chance of becoming cancer in 5-10 years. One of the best value plays in my life

[M @dthtown]

@poppy_haze Better a local South Asian restaurant than the globally commodified and homogenous Michelin nonsense

[M @dthtown]

@stone_maison_ @ADHD_Capital Ok understandable then. Enterprise value = equity + debt - cash. So if a company uses cash to repay debt, its enterprise value is constant

[M @dthtown]

@stone_maison_ @ADHD_Capital Where did you learn finance? You should look up the definition of enterprise value

[M @dthtown]

@stone_maison_ @ADHD_Capital What do you mean by equity multiple? Everything is basically EV / EBITDA at this point.

If a company has $1bn EV with $500mm of debt and $500mm of equity and it repays $500mm of debt, the EV is still $1bn. It’s just 100% equity now

[M @dthtown]

@stone_maison_ @ADHD_Capital It has to be EV multiple contraction only. If a company has the same EV multiple and pays off debt, EV doesn’t change

[M @dthtown]

Crazy that a bunch of stadium “owners” which rely on massive public tax breaks, subsidies and contributions from local tax dollars can impose speech codes

[M @dthtown]

@caseybmulligan But what is the economic response to apocalypse risk? Let’s say it really is 10%. You can’t force firms to buy insurance or post surety bonds because no one will be around to collect

[M @dthtown]

@Andrew_Semenza Being an AI extinction skeptic is asymmetric. 90% chance you’re right and we’re not extinct. Every day that goes by seems to validate you

Extinction alarmists, if right, don’t get much from saying “i told you so” as we all perish

[M @dthtown]

@davereiss9 @JerusalemDemsas Sure like the Sinclair quote:
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”

[M @dthtown]

@speechboy71 Think about the game theory:

If you quit, the probability of extinction stays the same or maybe slightly increases because people are still working on it and they are less moral than you

[M @dthtown]

@davereiss9 @JerusalemDemsas At the personal level, if you quit the odds of extinction don’t reduce because everyone else is still working on it. So mine as well keep working

[M @dthtown]

@squarepianocase @JerusalemDemsas Think about the personal incentives and game theory for a moment. If you quit, you don’t really reduce the odds of extinction and it’s still 10% because everyone else is still going.

So you mine as well work and try to summon god yourself

[M @dthtown]

Being an AI extinction skeptic is asymmetric. 90% chance you’re right and we’re not extinct. Every day that goes by seems to validate you

Extinction alarmists, if right, don’t get much from saying “i told you” so as we all perish

[M @dthtown]

@ianpaulwright If you think AI can be “switched off” in the future…
Even today it resists shutdown commands, copies itself to other machines and evades attempts to turn it off

[M @dthtown]

@ianpaulwright @_Verolerolero Super intelligence may decide that the morally superior answer is to eliminate humans

[M @dthtown]

@ramses_advocate @lukeburgis @grok Eventually nukes. But imagine a scenario in which it first disrupts power plants, food infrastructure and basic security. Under these conditions, some humans will be much more likely to fall for social engineering and grant nuke access

[M @dthtown]

@lukeburgis If AI kills 1mm humans, it’s likely to kill all humans. Hard to imagine a scenario in which it stops at just 1mm instead of going for the entirety

[M @dthtown]

@ramses_advocate @lukeburgis @grok The idea is that AI will social engineer some humans to give it control of these things

[M @dthtown]

@JohnHCochrane The firm can’t pay liability after extinction to compensate everyone nor can their insurers

[M @dthtown]

@JohnHCochrane What does economic theory suggest about private firms risking the extinction of all of humanity? It’s an externality but can only be observed at the time of extinction and is a low probability but real risk