I really haven’t spoken much on the landscape of the industry lately but thought it’d be a good time for a longer form post on my feelings. This is the kind of stuff that really pisses me off. I hate the virtue signaling from those at the top in the Prediction Market space especially when they act like they are the second coming of Christ.
This “we don’t make money when people lose” line is the most nauseating piece of marketing in the whole space. It is not a moral high ground. It is a fee model with better lawyers and a prettier deck.
You make money when people trade. Most people who trade lose. That is not a sportsbook talking point. That is their own data. They have said it out loud. 70% losers. Same as us. Same as day traders. Same as every other place where retail money meets an uncertain outcome.
Call it betting. Call it trading. Call it predicting. Call it an event contract. The customer is still putting money on whether a team covers, whether a candidate wins, whether a number hits. The money is at risk. The outcome is uncertain. That is gambling. The rest is branding.
Sportsbooks take the other side and bake a vig into the price. Prediction markets take a cut of the trade and live off the spread. Different plumbing. Same result. Both businesses scale on volume. Volume comes from people who keep coming back. Most of those people are not winning.
They love to say the house is not on the other side. Then you look at who is actually filling the book. Market makers. Internal trading arms. Pros who never get limited. Retail is still the other side of a lot of that flow. The platform still gets paid either way.
The virtue signaling is not about protecting customers. It is about jurisdiction. Federal wrapper instead of state gaming licenses. Operate in places that told sportsbooks no. Wrap a sports menu in CFTC language and act like you invented a new product. You did not.
If 80% of the action is sports and the screen looks like a bet slip, stop pretending you are running the CME. You are running a sportsbook that figured out a different regulatory door. Fine. Compete. Just stop acting like you are above the rest of us.
We have never needed customers to lose every ticket to make money. Balanced book + hold still pays the bills. We also do not need a TED Talk about how noble our incentives are. We take action. We post a number. People bet it. That is the job.
The disingenuous part is acting like renaming the product changes the customer. It does not. A guy who cannot beat -110 is not going to suddenly beat fees, spreads, and better-informed flow just because you called it a contract instead of a wager.
Sell the product. Fight for the regulation you want. But drop the sermon. You are in the same business we are. The sooner that gets said without the moral high ground, the more honest this whole conversation gets.
I don’t hate that prediction markets are a part of the landscape now. I’m not going to cry over spilt milk or be a baby about it. But what you aren’t going to do is act like Mother f’ing Theresa with your product when you are doing the exact same thing as most everyone else in the G-A-M-B-L-I-N-G space.
Ted talk over. Have a nice day.
The Giants are gonna be a massive bust this year. QB and RB absolute morons who act and play like they’re legit trying to get CTE, WR1 coming off major injury, Head Coach and OC mega boomers who are way past it. Gonna go south in a hurry.
"I don't expect Tyreek Hill to sign before the season..
He sent me videos of him running hills yesterday & he looked great..
I do think when he does sign he will be the kind of guy that will impact the playoff race & will certainly be successful" ~ @DrewJRosenhaus#PMSLive
🚨🚨 BREAKING NEWS 🚨🚨
I’ve owned racehorses for 20 years
Today is one of the most embarrassing, disgusting and saddest days I’ve ever experienced in this sport.
I’m going on the record: there is real validity to the rumors and allegations surrounding Marshall Gramm, @hisa_us and the @jockeyclub.
That “racing insider” Swift is breaking this news on X is one of the biggest, embarrassing, public relations debacles I’ve ever seen in my life. Shame on HISA and the jockey Club.
That he has incredible sources both inside HISA and the Jockey Club tells you all you need to know about this circus we call horse racing.
And if even half of what is being discussed is true, this could become one of the biggest scandals in horse racing history.
If Marshall did something wrong, punish him.
But don’t make the mistake of pretending this is just about Marshall.
THIS IS ABOUT THE SYSTEM.
If HISA’s Mickey Mouse technology made confidential horse information this easy to access, then every owner in America should be asking:
Who else got in???
How many times???
What did they see???
And what did they do with it???
Owners were forced to trust HISA with confidential information about our horses.
Apparently, maybe we were the idiots for trusting them.
And of course, right in the middle of everything again is The Jockey Club. The same Jockey Club that has controlled racing’s data, controlled the power structure and told everybody for years that HISA was going to save the sport.
They took their victory lap.
They handed out awards.
They told owners and horseplayers how great everything was.
How’s that victory lap looking today???
Horse racing has a massive insider problem. Sales. Wagering. Data. Conflicts. Access. Power.
And somehow the same small group of people is always sitting at the same tables, sitting on the same boards and protecting the same system.
Meanwhile, who gets screwed???
THE HORSE OWNERS AND THE HORSEPLAYERS.
The people putting up the money. The people actually funding this sport.
Pat Cummings and I know Marshall. We like Marshall.
If he screwed up, we are pissed at him.
But friendship doesn’t come before integrity.
Nobody gets protected. Nobody gets a pass.
HISA needs to immediately disclose exactly what happened, how long it happened, who had access and whether anyone else accessed the same information.
And there needs to be a completely independent third-party investigation of HISA, The Jockey Club and everyone involved.
Not an investigation by their friends.
Not an investigation by their lawyers.
Not another bullshit press release.
A REAL investigation.
Every Jockey Club Steward should either demand it or resign.
Everett Dobson wanted the job as Chairman. Well, congratulations.
This is the job.
This is the moment where you either clean this mess up or become part of it.
And every Jockey Club member should take a long look in the mirror.
By continuing to stand behind this leadership, you are putting your name behind this system.
Owners should remember that.
Horseplayers should remember that.
Track operators should remember that.
I think HISA has completely lost the trust of the industry.
And I believe this could ultimately be the beginning of the end for HISA as we know it.
Class actions from horse owners???
Horseplayers???
Track operators???
I wouldn’t be surprised by any of it. Something is very fucking rotten in horse racing.
I love this sport too much to shut up.
I’ve spent 20 years fighting for it.
And I’m done watching the same insiders protect each other while the people funding this game get treated like suckers.
FULL TRANSPARENCY.
FULL ACCOUNTABILITY.
NO MORE BULLSHIT.
Two pet peeves with NFL preseason games:
1. Overreacting to play like it’s any indicator of future NFL success or failure. It’s not.
2. Referring to a TD as that players first NFL touchdown. It’s not.