Gautam Batra

Global Macro Asset Allocation Specialist

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

More volatility likely for $SPX $NDX as higher rates inevitable with taper / tightening leading to derating of equity market, margin pressure also building so potential for profit hit as well #toxiccombination, $USD surge to continue impacting $Gold $BTC #commodities, #cashisking

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

Powell guides 2yr to 5.25pct, sparks going to fly after quarter end and independence day hol and market positions for yield curve shift higher #Fed #dollar #10yr #rates #jpy #eur #GBPUSD

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

Banks send back deposits that they received to the institution from which customers originally fled🤔

Real issue is impairment of assets due to rate / credit risks not liquidity

Solution: raise equity or #FED #ECB cut rates - not possible due to inflation roll on #GFCMKII $FRC

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

INTIAL TARGET REMAINS $120

$AAPL #AAPL

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

$AAPL TARGET $120, DOWNTREND IN TACT #AAPL #APPLE

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

TARGET $95-$100

$TSLA #TSLA

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

#TSLA target $558

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

#BOE has reignited the #Sterling crisis today. A central bank cannot ever give the markets a one way trade. BOE appears to have done just that in the hope of talking down 2 year interest rates, but will probably find that the market riots. #Cable heading to #parity #GBP #gbpusd

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

Feds own estimation is that terminal rate needs to be higher, but they do not know how much higher. Fed is asking the market to to the work for them. Expect 2yr to become "unanchored" and move towards 6%, which is FEDs desired outcome - risky strategy. #USD #Fed #spx #2yr #10yr

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

vii/

12) inflation has not really moderated at all (as we had expected), which makes recession more likely

#usd #fed #10yr #spx

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

i/
Fed presser summary in the clear light of day:

1) Considerable uncertainty on what is appropriatly restrictive rate
2) Fed will only slow rate increases when they approach that appropriate restrictive rate

#fed #spx #usd #10yr

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

vi/

10) Wages flattening (ECI/avg hourly earnings) but level that is much higher than consistent with 2% inflation, job market still very overheated
11) global economy needs US to control prices (so overseas development de-emphasised)

#fed #usd #spx #10yr

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

#BOJ intervention so far has barely moved the needle. Failure means a hastened end to #YCC to control a runaway #JPY and will lead to significant upward pressure on global yields, and reduced JPY printing will result in a risk off dynamic for #Equities #USDJPY #USD #spx #dollar

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

As any idea of FED pause runs contra to inflation fight, which has biggest impact on 30yr. Together with QT illiquidity, 30yr now pulling up the whole curve as inflation expectations rise. Volatility to spike as the Fed has lost control of the long end
#fed #usd #10yr #equities

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

Negative spiral underway in UK. PSBR overshoots OBR forecasts due to interest payments on outstanding debt. VERY CONCERNING. BOE announcement of APF sales looks to be mistimed given possible delay in Fiscal Statement / leadership race 5pct fall in #Sterling likely #GBPUSD #gilts

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

@zerohedge Annualised total return 4.03%

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

What would stabilise the Pound / Gilts:

- Abandon plans to subsidise energy and tax cuts, all of them
- Get Rishi in number 11

Short of that nothing works #GBP @RishiSunak #gilts

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

@zerohedge JOLTS data confirms an extremely elevated level of Job Openings relative to history. The absolute level matters more than the monthly decrease

[Gautam Batra @ducknsurf]

STAG + FLATION = LOWER REVENUES + LOWER MARGINS + HIGHER RATES

$USD #USD $SPX #SPX $FED #FED