Marc Dunphy

After decades of absorbing news and views via mainstream media, it's good to finally get access to the truth. Kangas | Jumps | The Bool

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@littlebirdietv Holly Durnan has to go in for her outside barrier to inside rail ride on Falset Star at Flemington

[Stephen R Power @racingblogger]

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#RoyalAscot

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@rtralphy Boltsaver BM67 in a metro open Hcp only 11.5kg out of the handicap. Runs a nice second. Beats home Punch Lane which it should’ve been getting 17kg off. #weights

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@Matt__Welsh_ On the upside, the VOD is a godsend. Without it, the corporates’ savage deductions tables would crucify punters on days like this.

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@Matt__Welsh_ Sorry Matt, thought you’d pick up on the sarcasm. I just don’t get why they accept when there’s almost no chance of an upgrade.

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@TravTurf @FlemingtonVRC Close call with Holly Durnan doing the exact opposite from the outside barrier. Beggars belief.

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@rtralphy Maybe if Holly was claiming 15kg it might’ve jagged a place for the EW punters. Certainly that ride ranks as one of the most incompetent I’ve ever seen.

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

Core blimey. Who was the muppet riding Falset Star at Flemington??? Drew outside barrier and somehow finished off the race near the inside fence. Yeah $26 into $9. 😞

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@PUNTERIQ When you say offers are “significantly lower”, you are understating it significantly!

They are horrendous. Had one a few years ago for a team to make the 8 in AFL. There was about 3 weeks to go and they were basically a shoe-in at 1.01. Ticket was worth $1500. Offer was $400

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@Betfair_Aus @thaylock @Matt__Welsh_ @TrentC_Racing @SEN_track Quality post that. Cover and Longines rankings clear equal 1st.

Not sure who overrates World Pool?? It’s for absolute muppets* who like taking $1.25 on $2 chances.

*Except if you backed Gold Trip in the 23 Turnbull.

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@TRBHorseRacing Excellent analysis Daniel. Certainly looked at it from a few angles.

Would be interesting to see how just the Derby winners stacked up as opposed to the whole cohort.

Going off that honour roll of future G1 winners, from memory only Aeliana & Exp Jack won the ATC Derby.

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@betsy_com_au @Mattwelsh @PeterLawrence18 Good VOD example

Fav scr at 7:04. The 9 shortens from $9.5 - $7. Scr at 7:15 but deduction is based on $9.5.

14 shortens to $21 after both scr and then scr at 7:22. Deduction is based on $34.

Deductions today 27c W & 21c P.

If in NSW, SB would be 39c & 27c

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@rtralphy Well at least the consensus today is that it’s Narrm and everyone who called it Naarm 3 years ago should be ashamed.

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@PeterLawrence18 I know exactly what you mean.

It’s a relatively recent phenomenon because fixed price betting starts 4 days before the race. In the past, betting started 25 minutes before the race and multiple late scr were rare and nearly always simultaneous.

The VOD 100% addresses this.

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@Matt__Welsh_ I emailed RNSW in 2023 urging them to adopt the VOD. I was stunned by the answer - feedback from bookies that they didn’t like the VIC product.

Of course it’s a complete mystery why bookies aren’t enamoured with a system whereby they can’t ripoff punters with their own model 🤷‍♂️

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@foxcatcherintel Is Jules for real? Absolute nonsense. Bookies and regulators virtually never do anything for punters (see deductions in every state bar Victoria).
Which punters co-op/union/peak body lobbied the bookies to introduce Pre-nom markets?? Seeing as how there isn't one...

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@PeterLawrence18 @Laming_Racing accepted with A Diva Wed/Thu/Fri/Sat. Must be a new record!4th EM Thu & seems they waited until there were 4 scr before they submitted their scr. No doubt trying to save a few shekels in scr fees (free for eliminated EM). 12c deduction instead of 0c. Cost me $540

[Marc Dunphy @dunfff]

@J_Walter23 BOM forecast was 6-20mm yesterday. They got 14.6. Almost dead centre. So main course is H8 on day one (jumps H9) with plenty more rain forecast Wed & Thu.

If only they’d put more irrigation on during the week we could’ve kicked off with a H10.