#BTC
The game plan is now under way
Bitcoin is currently relief rallying towards the 50-Month EMA (purple) in an effort to fully confirm the breakdown
In other words, Bitcoin is repeating price action from the Bear Market Summer of 2022
$BTC #Bitcoin
🚨 MOST PEOPLE AREN'T READY FOR WHAT HAPPENS BELOW $58K
I’ve been trading crypto for 9 years and have never seen anything like this
Everyone is screaming that bottom is in, or we're going to 30k, but it won't be either of these
Reversals never happen without shaking out majority
The chart won’t follow the same pattern forever
If this macro pattern continues, Bitcoin must eventually drop to around 30-32k in a few months, despite macro and global demand
But at some point, every pattern has to break
When? When the fundamentals and market sentiment no longer support it
A pattern should confirm reality - not contradict it. If it does, forget the pattern. It has outlived its usefulness, just like every pattern before it
If you look at previous cycles, every major bottom took time to form. You had months to buy near the lows
And that's exactly why almost nobody did
Everyone was waiting for lower prices
Everyone wants to buy the capitulation wick
But what if that wick never comes?
Then nobody buys
$16k was obviously a great BTC entry last cycle
I think everyone in crypto knew that... Yet almost nobody bought.
Not because it wasn't cheap, but because everyone was waiting for a nice round number: $10k/$15k
Or they bought too early, just like many are doing now, deployed all their capital, lost conviction, or even sold because they were convinced BTC had much further to fall
That's how bottoms are formed
My base case is that we'll spend the summer ranging, then slowly bleed toward $50k
After that, maybe one final flush to ~$42k, just enough to convince everyone another capitulation, "the final dump to 30k" is coming
But it never comes, just like it never came last cycle or the one before it
Many things about BTC price action change over time, but one thing never does
When it's the top, almost nobody believes it's the top. When it's the bottom, almost nobody believes it's the bottom.
Today 50% think that the bottom is in
Other 40% wait for 30-40k
That's why I think it's not a bottom, and we won't bottom at 30-40k
But if you read the sentiment differently, or read this later, and you already think today's price is attractive but believe it'll go even lower, don't overthink it
Most likely everybody thinks so
So just buy and hold until $240k
It's much better to buy at $50k than wait for $30k that may never come and end up not buying at all.
That's why I've already bought 30% here
Will DCA at 58K, 55K, 52K, and 50% at 42k
Want to remind you that I called each major top and bottom of the last 7 years, including exact 126K BTC top:
https://t.co/OcIL5ehN7o
And soon i will make this account private
If you read this, you probably get the biggest informational edge in your lifetime
So make sure to follow me and turn notifs on
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