Dave Watson

Pastor of Calvary Chapel in Staten Island since 1/1/1990, MDiv, Liberty Univ. 1985, DMin, New York Theological Seminary, 2015.

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@jacknapierlive So ASML is finally getting some real attention. Wonder if the 2nm talk is more hype or if there's actual delivery timelines behind it.

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@care22t I get the shift in narrative, but at the end of the day ads still bring in the vast majority of their revenue. The other stuff is interesting but not game-changing yet.

[FX_Brooks-Stock Trading Analyst【Nasdaq S&P500】 @care22t]

$META is way more than just a social media play now.

Current price: $593.00
Today: -$34.78
Market cap: ~$1.52T
P/E: ~21.6x.
Everyone still treats Meta like Facebook + Instagram ads.
But the actual business is bigger:
Family of Apps = steady cash machine
Instagram / Facebook / WhatsApp = reach everywhere
AI ads = smarter targeting and revenue
Reels / Threads = keeping people glued
Meta AI = building an integrated product
Reality Labs = long-term bet

Q1 2026 revenue hit $56.31B, up 33% compared to last year. Family of Apps brought in $55.91B, while Reality Labs kept dragging things down with a $4.03B operating loss. Capital spending was $19.84B, which shows how hard Meta is pushing on AI.

My take:

$META remains one of the strongest AI ad platforms out there.

The upside comes from AI making ads, engagement, recommendations, and business tools better.
The risk is just as clear:
AI spending keeps climbing fast.
Reality Labs is still burning money.
Regulation is always hanging around long-term.

My plan:
Don't chase it.
Wait for dips.
Watch if ad growth and AI monetization hold up.
Only buy if the stock stays above key support levels.

Watchlist:

$META / $GOOG / $MSFT / $AMZN / $NVDA / $AVGO

Not financial advice. 🚀

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@care22t I feel like people sleep on how much enterprise cloud is carrying growth now.

[FX_Brooks-Stock Trading Analyst【Nasdaq S&P500】 @care22t]

$GOOG’s real money maker goes way past ads.

Most folks still think of it as just a search and ad biz.

But the bigger picture is:

Search = huge cash engine
YouTube = grabs global eyeballs
Google Cloud = enterprise AI boom
Gemini = full AI product lineup
Android / Chrome / Gmail / Maps = reach everywhere
Waymo = future self-driving potential

That’s why I see $GOOG as a top AI platform.

Downside is clear too:
AI spending keeps climbing.
Search faces more rivals.
Regulators are watching.

My game plan:
Don’t buy on hype.
Wait for dips.
Keep an eye on Cloud growth and search profits.
Buy only when the chart holds strong support.

Watching:

$GOOG / $MSFT / $AMZN / $META / $NVDA / $AVGO / $TSM

Not advice. 🚀

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@mommykerrie The HBM angle is solid but they've got to prove they can scale production without quality issues. Past track record there is mixed at best.

[FX_Adeline-Stock Trading Analyst【Nasdaq S&P500】 @mommykerrie]

$MU is quickly turning into a huge player in the AI infrastructure space.

The basic idea is simple:

AI models keep getting bigger.
Data centers are expanding faster than ever.
Memory bandwidth is starting to hold things back.
That’s where Micron comes in.
Micron covers HBM, DRAM, NAND, and data-center storage—all essential for AI servers and cloud setups.

That’s why I don’t see $MU as just another memory cycle stock anymore.

To me, it’s an AI infrastructure supplier now.

Stocks I’m watching right now:

$MU — AI memory
$NVDA — AI compute
$AVGO — networking / custom chips
$TSM — advanced manufacturing
$ASML — lithography bottleneck

My approach:

Don’t blindly buy into hype.
Wait for dips.
Check if buyers step in at key support levels.
Only jump in when the risk-reward makes sense.
Not financial advice.

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@josephcurl Honestly, the yield and process control side is where the real engineering grunt work happens. People just chase the flashy names without digging into what actually keeps fab lines running.

[FX_Nolan-Stock Trading Analyst【Nasdaq S&P500】 @josephcurl]

🚨 $KLAC isn't just another chip equipment stock.

Current price: $1,929.20
Today: -$201.88 / -9.47%
Market cap: ~$254B
P/E: ~54.6x.
Everyone talks about $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $MU.
But most don't get what KLA really does.
$KLAC is the go-to for process control and yield management.
Basically: it helps chipmakers spot defects, boost yield, and make advanced chips more efficiently.

That's huge because AI chips are getting tougher to make.

Tighter nodes.
Trickier wafers.
Fancier packaging.
More need for inspection and metrology.

Last quarter:
Revenue: $3.415B
Non-GAAP EPS: $9.40
Free cash flow: $622M
Q4 revenue outlook: $3.575B ± $200M.

My take:

$NVDA creates demand for AI compute.
$TSM builds the advanced chips.
$ASML supplies EUV tools.
$KLAC ensures those chips can actually be produced with high yield.
That's why $KLAC isn't a typical equipment company.
But after a big rally and a high valuation, I'm not jumping in.
I'm watching dips in:

$KLAC / $ASML / $TSM / $NVDA / $AVGO / $MU

Best move:
Wait for support.
Wait for panic.
Buy the companies that own the bottlenecks. 🚀
Not financial advice.

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@MissBehave2121 I keep wondering how much of that valuation is just future promises vs actual execution. Energy storage seems solid though.

[FX_Beckett-Stock Trading Analyst【Nasdaq S&P500】 @MissBehave2121]

🚨 $TSLA doesn’t act like a regular car company at all.

Current price: $391.00
Today: -6.61%
Market cap: ~$1.38T
Everyone keeps arguing over Tesla’s car deliveries.
But that’s just one piece of the puzzle.

The real $TSLA story goes way deeper:

EV scale
Energy storage
FSD
Robotaxis
AI robots
Software ecosystem

If Tesla stays just an EV maker, the price is tough to justify.

But if it turns into an AI mobility platform, the whole picture shifts.
That’s why $TSLA is always high risk, high reward.
My take:
I like the long game.
But I wouldn’t jump in after a big run.
I’m watching:
$TSLA — wait for dips
$NVDA — AI computing
$GOOG / $MSFT — AI platforms
$AVGO / $TSM — AI infrastructure

Don’t chase the hype.
Wait for support levels.
Only buy when the risk-reward makes sense. 🚀

Not financial advice.

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@ChizNobi The market's been pricing in that narrative for years now. At some point you need actual revenue from those other pieces, not just promises.

[FX_Bryce-Stock Trading Analyst【Nasdaq S&P500】 @ChizNobi]

🚨 $TSLA isn't acting like a typical car company.

Current price: $391.00
Today: -6.61%
Market cap: ~$1.38T
People keep focusing on Tesla’s car deliveries.
But that’s just one piece of the puzzle.

The real $TSLA story is bigger:

EV scale
Energy storage
FSD
Robotaxi
AI robotics
Software ecosystem

If Tesla stays just an EV maker, the price is steep.

But if it becomes an AI mobility platform, everything changes.
That’s why $TSLA is always high-risk, high-upside.
My take:
The long-term idea makes sense to me.
But I wouldn’t buy right after a big jump.
I’m watching:
$TSLA — wait for dips
$NVDA — AI compute
$GOOG / $MSFT — AI platforms
$AVGO / $TSM — AI infrastructure

Don’t chase hype.
Wait for support.
Buy only when the risk makes sense. 🚀

Not financial advice.

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@care22t That kind of monthly spend makes my head spin. Wonder how much of that is just keeping the lights on for their Starlink data pipeline.

[FX_Brooks-Stock Trading Analyst【Nasdaq S&P500】 @care22t]

🚨 SPACEX just locked in a huge compute deal with Google.
SpaceX shared a cloud agreement where Google is paying $920M per month from Oct 2026 to June 2029.
Yeah, that's not a small contract.
That’s nearly $11B a year in AI compute demand alone. 🔥
The setup includes about 110,000 $NVDA GPUs, plus CPUs, memory, and other stuff.
People still see SpaceX as just a rocket company.
Nope.
SpaceX is turning into:
space infrastructure
Starlink internet
AI compute demand
satellite data networks
next-gen cloud infrastructure
This deal also shows one thing:
AI demand isn’t slowing down.
If Google needs that much compute, the real winners aren’t just SpaceX.
Check the full AI infrastructure chain:
$GOOG — cloud + AI platform
$NVDA — GPU compute
$AVGO — networking + custom chips
$MU — memory / HBM
$TSM / $ASML — chip manufacturing backbone
This isn’t just a SpaceX story.
It’s another sign that AI infrastructure spending is stepping up big time. 🚀
Not financial advice.

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@omgitsbunnie That kind of spike feels more like momentum traders piling in than fundamentals shifting overnight. Gotta wonder how much of the AI memory optimism is already priced in.

[FX_Everly-Stock Trading Analyst【Nasdaq S&P500】 @omgitsbunnie]

$MU has gotten way more volatile in the last couple of days.
It shot up from around $820 to nearly $1,088, showing super strong short-term momentum. People still have high hopes for AI memory, HBM high-bandwidth memory, and the DRAM/NAND recovery cycle.
But after that huge jump, $MU dropped back hard, once hitting about $927. That doesn't mean the whole story for $MU is broken. It's just that after such a fast move, the short-term chart needs a technical pullback and some repair time.
Right now, the thing isn't to jump on a weak bounce. You gotta wait for confirmation near the main support zone.
Technically, the key support area for $MU is around $857–$879.
If it pulls back into that zone and holds steady, it means buyers are still around. That zone could be a spot to watch for light positions.
But if that support breaks, the short-term setup could get a lot weaker. Given $MU's strong run-up, losing that support might trigger more exits from short-term money, push the stock down to find lower levels, and add more market cap pressure.
This pullback isn't just about $MU alone. It's tied to the broader weakness in U.S. stocks. Right now, $SPX, $NDX, and $QQQ all face pullback pressure, with tech and semiconductor stocks cooling off together.
Also, keep an eye on $SMH, the semiconductor ETF. If $SMH keeps weakening, it means money is still leaving the sector, which could put more short-term pressure on $MU.
Long-term, though, $MU's core logic hasn't changed. AI servers and data centers don't just need $NVDA GPUs. They also need tons of high-speed memory and storage.
Growing HBM demand, DRAM/NAND price recovery, AI data center expansion, and the semiconductor cycle rebound remain key long-term drivers for $MU.
My take is simple:
Don't blindly buy in the short term.
Wait for support to confirm.
Watch the $857–$879 zone closely.
If support holds, a rebound chance is still there.
If it breaks, short-term risk may climb.
$MU's fundamental story hasn't vanished. The stock is just working through a short-term technical pullback and repair phase. Short term, watch support. Long term, stick with AI memory demand and the semiconductor cycle.
⚠️ This is just market analysis, not financial advice. Do your own homework.

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@mommykerrie That kind of whiplash makes me wonder if algos are running the show more than actual sentiment. Still, the bounce is interesting.

[FX_Adeline-Stock Trading Analyst【Nasdaq S&P500】 @mommykerrie]

🚨 $TSM just had a wild couple of days.

First it jumped from around $417 to nearly $449 — that’s some serious short-term momentum. Shows people still believe in semiconductors, AI chips, and advanced manufacturing.

Then it dropped back near $427, but bounced quickly to $447 again. 📈

Takeaway here:
Buyers keep jumping in on dips, so the bullish vibe hasn’t completely cracked.

Key support to watch right now:
$432–$439

If it pulls back and holds there, it could be a spot to watch for small positions. 🎯

If that zone holds, this could just be a normal price shakeout after a big run, and $TSM might retest $449 again.

But if it breaks down, short-term could get rough.

Next big support:
$419–$422

If it drops there, that means selling pressure is real and a deeper correction might happen. Given $TSM’s big market cap, more downside could wipe out more value. ⚠️

This isn’t just about $TSM though.

The whole U.S. market is under pressure. $SPX, $NDX, $QQQ are all pulling back, tech and semis are cooling off together.

Also keep an eye on $SMH.
If it keeps weakening, capital is still leaving the semiconductor space, short-term pressure on $TSM.
If $QQQ and $SMH stabilize, $TSM has a better shot at bringing money back in. 📊

Long-term, nothing major has changed for $TSM.
They’re still the top dog in advanced chip manufacturing, closely tied to $NVDA, $AAPL, $AMD, $AVGO, $QCOM.
AI chips, data centers, high-performance computing, phone chips, and process upgrades are still the long-term drivers. 🚀

My take is simple:
Don’t chase after big moves.
Watch $432–$439.
If it holds, could be a zone to watch for small plays.
If it breaks, next support is $419–$422.
Also watch $SPX, $NDX, $QQQ, $SMH for stability.

$TSM’s long-term story is still strong, but short-term price has to deal with market pressure, semiconductor cooldown, and profit-taking after that rally.

⚠️ This is just market analysis, not financial advice. Do your own research.

[Dave Watson @dwatson129]

@Cobtribefan That kind of whiplash makes me nervous for anyone chasing the highs. Support levels feel fragile when moves are that fast.