Wayne Lloyd

Optimistic contrarian. Technology and Digital Assets. Your friend and counterparty.

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

So true

[TJ Parker⚡️ @tjparker]

This VC meme is very funny.

If someone falling asleep, not liking your idea, or ghosting you gets you bent out of shape, NGMI.

Go spend a day in private equity or try competing with an incumbent.

Venture is arguably the most pleasant form of dealmaking in the world.

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

@howardlindzon Looks good tip the surgeon

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

@nic_carter @Adrian_Hilton There is nothing quite like real British charm.

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

@antoniogm @karol Real

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

@DrCamRx @DrCamMaximus Reminds me of “holistic derangement syndrome” where the afflicted believe that 1 year or organic produce consumption compensates for 10 years of hard partying 🤣

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

@InvestorAmnesia Congrats Jamie!

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

Seems fairly credible

[Perry E. Metzger @perrymetzger]

I ran the cryptography mailing list. I know all of the people involved. I think it’s unlikely that Adam was Satoshi. He’s just the latest in a long line of people that various reporters have incorrectly claimed to have “definitively demonstrated” was Satoshi.

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

A legend

[3:10 Value @310Value]

RIP Murray

https://t.co/UXP73S4PIu

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

@signulll Similar to how much people are willing to pay for therapy being a proxy price for casual friendship.

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

@morganb I checked out some of the suggestions in the thread (which seem good). Replying here to improve reach.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The Colossus 2 supercomputer for @Grok is now operational.

First Gigawatt training cluster in the world. Upgrades to 1.5GW in April.

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

"if Tristan likes it, run" so true

[sam lessin 🏴‍☠️ @lessin]

Cheap therapy becoming the number one use case for ChatGPT is a big big red old flag.... the infinite patience friend to talk thru your crazy person trauma is not a good business, nor does it expand productivity in any way... almost by definition if Tristan likes it, run.

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

Tether asset breakdown will become the most important global interest rate barometer for the next 5-10 years. Watch how the asset mix changes and stay ahead of the curve 🔮

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

@adamscrabble “Optimism and perseverance is a type of intelligence” incredible line 🙏

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

Easy to miss the connection between giga agency and an eclectic background. Call it a chip on shoulder or whatever. It's real.

[Mat Sherman @Mat_Sherman]

In 19/20, I interviewed the founders of Deel, Mercury, Turing, AirGarage, PostScript, SSI, and Cognition on my podcast all from Phoenix. I didn’t just pick the co’s. I got access to the founder’s valuable time, without any external credential to hang my hat on. Isn’t it obvious?

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

This is from August 2025. In past cycles type of media narrative would physically shove the tech industry into major pause. Today, media criticism means nothing.

[The New Yorker @NewYorker]

An M.I.T. study found that 95% of companies that had invested in A.I. tools were seeing zero return. It jibes with the emerging idea that generative A.I., “in its current incarnation, simply isn’t all it’s been cracked up to be,” @JohnCassidy writes. https://t.co/DD2C4FXfgz

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

@yacineMTB Very real. A blessing and a curse.

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

Very important

[Guy Wuollet @guywuolletjr]

DePIN provides the most salient path towards making atoms look more like bits for builders and investors alike.

In the blog post below I outline why I'm excited about DePIN protocols as the next wave of blockchain enabled networks and businesses.

Read more 👇

[Wayne Lloyd @dynamichedge]

This seems correct:
“…post Stargate, MSFT is letting OpenAI chart their own course when it comes to producing the compute and associated Data Centers the need, and $ORCL is picking up the slack."

[Radnor Capital @RadnorCapital]

A few thoughts on the AI infrastructure cycle, which I remain bullish on...

Everyone is talking about the Cowen note, which talks about Microsoft $MSFT tapping the breaks on data center build outs. "Our channel checks indicate Microsoft has cancelled select US data center leases."

Diffley at Morgan Stanley has an interesting perspective: "While big Hyperscaler deals are taking a bit longer than some had hoped in what is clearly a complex Rubix Cube (part regulatory, part starring contest on terms, part procurement of chips, turbines $GEV & power procurement), the more likely explanation is that post Stargate, MSFT is letting OpenAI chart their own course when it comes to producing the compute and associated Data Centers the need, and $ORCL is picking up the slack."

I listened to @satyanadella's interview with @dwarkesh_sp and heard it as bullish for the durability of spending on AI infrastructure (although I always find it fascinating when two informed people listen to or read the same content and come to two totally different conclusions - because of this, I'm always open to feedback / pushback).

While Satya was clear that there is potential for overbuild (this has always been the case), he also says the “infrastructure need for the world is just going to be exponentially growing.” He also said the future of AI is a world full of agents, which will create “massive, massive demand and scale for compute infrastructure.” This doesn't sound like someone who is giving up...

Scaling laws are holding, which is bullish for AI infrastructure spend: Satya has said computing power is now doubling every 6 months, as the scaling laws paradigm has taken over from Moore's Law, and the new currency is tokens per dollar per watt. Test time compute / reasoning appears to be incredibly compute / energy intensive, which reads well for the downstream AI ecosystem.

Also, remember what Amy Hood said a few weeks ago on the Microsoft earnings call about Capex mix shifting back to short lived assets (compute) vs. longer lived assets (DC shells). This may also explain some of the observations in the Cowen note.

"Next, capital expenditures. We expect quarterly spend in Q3 and Q4 to remain at similar levels as our Q2 spend. In FY26, we expect to continue investing against strong demand signals including customer contracted backlog we need to deliver against across the entirety of our Microsoft Cloud. However, the growth rate will be lower than FY25 and the mix of spend will begin to shift back to short-lived assets which are more correlated to revenue growth. As a reminder, our long-lived infrastructure investments are fungible, enabling us to remain agile as we meet customer demand globally across our Microsoft Cloud including AI workloads. As always, there can be quarterly spend variability from cloud infrastructure buildouts and the timing of delivery of finance leases."

Big tech ROIC has generally gone up, not down, despite massive Capex growth. And remember that Microsoft, Amazon $AMZN, and Google $GOOGL all mentioned that their clouds were capacity constrained in Q4. Meaning they'd be growing faster with greater access to critical resources like compute. This reads well for cloud Capex potential in 2026.

I continue to be bullish on Nvidia $NVDA. I also believe in the idea of Jevons paradox (which appears to be a very popular term for price elasticity). Because of this, I also remain bullish on Vertiv $VRT, but prefer Nvidia if given the choice. In a world where every application, every product, and every enterprise is accelerated, we're going to need a lot more compute and associated power and cooling.

I also think that Nvidia could capture enormous value in inference (not sure this is consensus), which is latency sensitive and needs to be closer to urban areas. Nvidia DGX pods could be a big winner here.

Ultimately, economic value will accrue to the application layer, but I continue to think the infrastructure cycle has legs.

And don't forget about the geopolitical implications...military and economic strength have been, and will always be, downstream of technological capabilities and industrial capacity. We need to win - particularly if you believe @JDVance, who in his AI speech, said something along the lines of: the world will look very different if the US is 6 months ahead of China in the AI race vs. 6 months behind.

The arms race continues and Nvidia is the arms dealer. I look forward to hearing what Jensen has to say on Wednesday.