E_DataGuy

Independent election forecaster
U.S. election forecasting using early & mail vote data
Data. Trends. Results.

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

For the past six months I’ve been working behind the scenes to bring EDG and its forecast model into their own home in time for the midterm elections - and finally we have it:

https://t.co/x8CdPQoa41

Launching August 1st 2026

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

https://t.co/7ZnSmjZ9eU launches August 1st, 2026.

Sign up to the launch list today for all updates, forecast changes, and major model alerts.

Thank you to everyone who has supported EDG over the past two years. This is just the beginning.

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

For the past six months I’ve been working behind the scenes to bring EDG and its forecast model into their own home in time for the midterm elections - and finally we have it:

https://t.co/x8CdPQoa41

Launching August 1st 2026

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

I will still be posting daily updates here throughout the 2026 midterms, but https://t.co/7ZnSmjZ9eU will become the home of:

- Live Early Vote Tracker

- Live Senate Forecast

- Live House Forecast

- Individual state pages

Plus much more to come!

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

Keep following me, you’ll only have to re-follow next year anyway!

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

VIRGINIA - >95% REPORTING

✅ - Correct Candidate Selected

❌ - Within 5% of the result

🔵 - Over Performing by 4.82%
🔴 - Under Performing by 4.64%

My net error was 9.46%

A result in the correct candidate called; however, a major error in the margin.

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

VIRGINIA - FINAL PROJECTION

11/03/2025

@SpanbergerForVA to win the Virginia Gubernatorial race and beat @winwithwinsome to the governorship

🔵 - 52.68%
🔴 - 47.14%

🔵 + 5.54%

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

EDG will be entering into its third election cycle next year, and its second major set of results.

So far, we’ve had successes in race calls but not so much for the actual % votes.

Rolling into 2026 I’ll be redesigning once more, streamlining the models and aiming to push better results for you all!

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

@WinWithJMC Thanks John! I’ll be back with a vengeance next year; these numbers will not beat me!

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

Well there we go!

Safe to say the model wasn’t correct last night. But that’s okay! I’ll push harder for 2026, refine and replace aspects that didn’t quite work!

I’ll be going county by county in the next few days analysing the difference between the model and the actual result. Seeing where we did good, bad and awfully!

Keep following, because 2026 will be a wild year for elections if this is anything to go off of.

Thanks to everyone who has followed along this year, it’s been great!

Keep your eyes peeled for the analysis, I won’t hold back on myself!

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

Thanks for the follows, let’s do it all again next year!

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

NEW JERSEY - 93% REPORTING

✅ - Correct Candidate Selected

❌ - Within 5% of the result

🔵 - Over Performing by 5.86%
🔴 - Under Performing by 6.17%

My net error was 12.03%

Not the best result from the main model this time around!

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

NEW JERSEY - FINAL PROJECTION

11/03/2025

@MikieSherrill to win the New Jersey Gubernatorial race and beat @Jack4NJ to the governorship

🔵 - 50.34%
🔴 - 49.37%

🔵 + 0.97%

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

The proof will be in 2026, the third test for EDG. I will analyse both of these models for you publicly when we have 100% of the vote declared. And I hope you’ll stick around for that!

Then it’s onto a more open build of the 2026 models!

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

@MikieSherrill @Jack4NJ 40% statewide

🔵-56.7%
🔴-42.8%

🔵+ 13.9%

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

New Jersey: 2025 LIVE results thread:

This is the NJ thread, I’ll try to keep it as up to date as I can throughout the evening! I’ll be focusing on the main counties, but will try to give fair coverage to the smaller ones!

[E_DataGuy @E_DataGuy]

@MikieSherrill @Jack4NJ Morris - 21%

R’s lead 51.3% to 48.4%

Model missing by 0.16%