John Couvillon

JMC Analytics & Polling Founder/Owner
Award winning pollster/4x finalist (C&Es Reed Awards)
Political strategist/Numbers guy

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@MatthewLGunning Which makes life interesting is the extent to which the die is being cast now: if you're one of those old school consultant who is holding onto your $ for a last minute blitz, that is a TERRIBLE idea, given that GA is "into early voting."

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

TOP 10 EARLY VOTING STATES (% TURNOUT)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

TOP 10 EARLY VOTING STATES (VOLUME)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

MID AFTERNOON EV COUNT

Only one were waiting on now is WA, and that's still a few hours away. In the meantime:

TOTAL: 23.6M (46-31% Dem/Rep)
Mail: 12.9M (48-30% Dem/Rep)
In Person: 10.7M (42-33% Dem/Rep)

We'll definitely be at 24M tonoght with AZ/CA/WA updates.

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

person (+11 D) and mail voters (+18 D). At this point in time in 2022,1 7M had voted (47-32% D/R) (ET Surgeon General's warning-this is not a perfect "apples to apples").

Tomorrow,all 67 counties in FL are going online, as well as MI/MS/NJ/NY.Then all of KS on Tuesday.
(2/2)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

JMC'S EARLY VOTE TRACKER (10/22)

Early voting proceeding at a fairly fast clip. VBM shot up from 11.15 to 12.6M/in person voting increased from 8.3 to 10.4M. Altogether, we're at 23M early votes (47-31% D/R in party reg states). There is also a gap opening up between in
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[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@TheOneCA2021 @bigsteelmachine @earlyvotedata I do my best to "call balls and strikes", and offend partisans of each side at different times :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

23.MILLION.EARLY.VOTED.

Oregon did the honors just now, with over 100K new retuened ballots (384K ballots returned). On to 24M !

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@TheOneCA2021 @bigsteelmachine @earlyvotedata Thanks for following along! I have excactly ONE item on my agenda - presenting the data as is.

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

22.MILLION.EARLY.VOTED.

The Land of Lincoln put us over the top, with 775K total votes. On to 23 million votes !

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@MeirLax @earlyvotedata For what it's worth, after some morning updates, we're looking at

OVERALL: 47-31% D/R
MAIL: 48-30% D/R
IN PERSON: 42-32% D/R

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@Nellinose @earlyvotedata @SelbJim I see what I see :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@bigsteelmachine @earlyvotedata 33% is the % of the whole and is the cumulative number as of last night ;)

(Ive been going to @ElectProject for GA)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@bigsteelmachine @earlyvotedata As of last night, GA's black turnout was 33% of the total for in person voting. It was 35% a week ago.

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@earlyvotedata @SelbJim The way I look at the "blue wave" debate is this: what are Independents thinking, if one were to look at the poll crosstabs ? In 2022, they broke 49-47 Democratic. In 2018, it was 54-42 Dem.

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@CanadianNolaJay Which parish ? The parking lot was fairly crowded when I voted at the Archives on Tuesday.

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

LOUISIANA THIRD DAY EARLY VOTING

3rd day numbers, compared against recent "midterm-ish" elections:

2022 Senate:183,496, 74-24 white/black and 43-43 Rep/Dem
2023 Governor:151,801, 73-25 white/black and 45-41 R/D
2026 Senate:232,695, 64-32 white/black and 42-41 D/R
(1/)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@Josphat90396139 Not that difficult: fewer white Dems and/or white Inds ;)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@Elfvandel20 2015 Runoff: 119381, 69-29% white/black and 52-35% D/R

2019 Runoff: 230896, 68-29.5% white/black and 46-39.5% D/R

(Back then, many more were registered Dem, so party isn't a good basis of comparison)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

34,342-7,321, although Inds (as part of a continuing trend) saw the lions share of gains, picking up a net of 58,828 voters. Still, this degree of Dem dominance should be concerning to Republicans.
(2/2)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

ARIZONA PARTY REGISTRATION CHANGES

Historically, AZ party registration was split almost evenly between Reps and Inds, although Inds have had a plurality since 1/2021.

This past quarter (for the 3rd quarter in a row), however, Dems have outregistered Reps
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