John Couvillon

JMC Analytics & Polling Founder/Owner
Award winning pollster/4x finalist (C&Es Reed Awards)
Political strategist/Numbers guy

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@roon0292 @SenGoldBars His base of support was definitely more "wine track"

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@warrior_coast @CTIronman Every state is its own story :)

I recall how in 2010/4, the Republican wave stopped at the Sierras/Cascades.

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

CALIFORNIA BASELINE, CONGRESSIONAL VOTE

289 candidates ran for 52 US House seats. The party vote was 59-39% D/R. Here is how that number compares against recent midterm primaries:

2022: 62-37% D/R
2018: 63-34% D/R
** 2026: 59-39% D/R **
2014: 55-42% D/R

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@CACoreyU We all have our preferences on granularity :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

IOWA BREAKDOWN (98/99 counties in)
12% of vote cast absentee, Feenstra 41-26%
88% of vote cast EDay, Lahn 40-37%

Lahn winning 37.9-37.1%.

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@DemFromCT Yes, and important point (I blame it on Twitter's character limit/my desire NOT to bloviate) :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@svan81 It's a risk of the business, but Twitter has a character limit ;)

Plus, I post on this enough to where eventually we get to 100%. Have a great day ! :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@svan81 A bullet *FOR* - never said I was a perfect typist :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@svan81 Which is quite true, although in my experience, the Dem post election day swing is usually a couple of points.

So if you want to ding me for not 100% perfection, Ill take a bullet more making a broader point at 95% level of confidence :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@williamjordann In the interest of transparency, this is how I've been doing my calculations. If there is another URL that has even more accurate tabulations, Im always about continuous improvement :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

CALIFORNIA VOTING TURNOUT, 2026 V 2022
(Data from @Political_Data)
Before the "California counting" begins, JMC likes to get a turnout baseline at the end of Election Day/Night. Election Day ended up being +15 Dem (47-32%), which means the cumulative baseline is
(1/2)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@williamjordann Im going day by day, so this is their number up to EDay :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

Over the next four weeks, "California counting" will almost certainly enable Becerra to pull ahead of Hilton. Steyer? In general, he only carried uber wealthy areas and/or "marijuana counties"

Finally, the party vote from ALL gubernatorial candidates was 58-41% Dem/Rep.
(2/2)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

CALIFORNIA BASELINE

4.99 M COUNTED
Hilton (R) 27.8%
Becerra (D) 25.4%
Steyer (D) 19.6%
Bianco (R) 11.3%
Porter (D) 4.6%
Mahan (D) 4.1%
(1/2)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@williamjordann EDay 2022, according to PDI

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@KeystoneObsrvr Always fun to be the one who violates conventional wisdom :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

ZACH LAHN DECLARED WINNER

JMC's poll was the "canary in the coal mine" showing that Feenstra was in trouble. Which a Trump endorsement failed to change.

[Henry Olsen @henryolsenEPPC]

CA will drop millions of votes very quickly as those were the mail ballots received and processed before the last day or two. That will give us an early read but millions more will be counted after midnight ET. A few hundred thousand Election Day votes tonight, the rest later.

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

@DavidHu23585232 In fact, it's already changed with a couple of extra million votes posted :)

[John Couvillon @WinWithJMC]

VERY EARLY CALIFORNIA

1.36 M in
Hilton (R) 30%
Becerra (D) 25%
Steyer (D) 18%
Bianco (R) 12%
Mahan (D) 5%
Porter (D) 5%