Ultimus Wealth

🇺🇸 25 years working with some of the worlds greatest investors | Founder Kaliber Holdings Family Office

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

https://t.co/n6crXRHtfU

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

@ruth_capital @NickSchmidt That was a very significant and unpleasant visual.

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

@CFlanders7 You get better results, if you focus on the FTD close instead of the low. Either way, median FTD returns are less than 2% over the following 21-days.

People focus too much on FTDs and there are much better thrust signals; none of which are in place now.

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

@PeterLBrandt is mostly right here. It’s not so much the aggregate rate themselves, it’s the rate of change in rates within a certain period of time is what actually matters more.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Interest rate fears
People have become used to historically low interest rates
Our mortgage on this home in Northern Minnesota in 1982 was 14.5%
T-Bills traded briefly at 17%-plus
The 30-Year belongs at 6%-7%
People, get used to higher yields
$ZB_F $US30Y

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

One of our faster timing models went to neutral the first week of June and bounced around that level for a week to only have momentum get worse.

Typical returns in these zones are 5.1% CAGR on average. Does not mean the market falls apart, but it does mean there is no reason to be aggressive. This is just one of several reasons why we have been 100% cash for a few weeks.

$HOOD $NBIS $DDOG

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

Desk flows are adding protection farther out, or rolling hedges forward, because they don’t trust the calm in $VIX and expect a re‑expansion of volatility later.

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

@michaellistman @vixologist Bloomberg…

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

@franny8 @BrianLeeTrades A lot of words to just say that WDC has to sell 7.5 mm shares, which is only 5.4% of SNDK float.

The real reason SNDK had a reversal is that it’s super extended off a major run. Not that complicated.

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

@801010athlete Haven’t seen so many quality setups since April.

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

Amassed multiple 8-figures by "betting." Guess I'm out.

https://t.co/KH76WkS1eP

[Elma @oelma__]

He doesn’t smoke
He doesn’t drink
He doesn’t Womanise
He doesn’t party
He stays at home
He doesn’t bet

Where can I find him??

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

The real firing should be Ward Manual.

He let Jim take way too long to make a decision about staying, allowing the best talent to commit elsewhere in the portal since they had no idea who the coach would be, and then hiring an assistant (Sherrone).

This was a major management screw-up.

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

@iamthekky @MattReisMRX @AnkurPatel59 I don't know which it is, but is not one of Minervini's books

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

This doesn't sound overly bullish...

"...do not see additional interest rate cuts as potentially beneficial to the cracks in the labor market, but worries they could have "long‐lasting effects" on inflation."

$CDTX $BE $FLNC $TSLA $OPEN

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

Nothing like having a "friendly" neighbor.

China warns Japan of 'crushing' defeat, tells Chinese citizens to shun visits | Reuters

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

Our read of today's market reaction is this. The #fed just couldn't be dovish enough for this market and institutional capital flows have been sensing this for the past number of weeks.

Really doesn't seem more complicated than that. Still think this feels similar to March 2024 where the market had to digest a Fed that was not going to lower rates as quickly as expected. In that case, market was down ~9% over 6 weeks.

Market may have to digest that again. We'll see.

$BE $TSLA $SNDK $EOSE $OLKO

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Saw that too. It’s some funny stuff.

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

Well, I guess we have our answer, don’t we?

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

Not particulary surprised to see a reversal Friday off the oversold condition. The question is do we "pop and chop" or do we round out over the next week and move higher?

One of the challenges for the market is that we have been in a subtle Risk Off mode for the past few weeks; coupled with weakening breadth. That creates the chop you feel.

If this condition does not resolve itself quickly, the "Pop and chop" scenario becomes much more likely.

$OKLO $TSLA $SNDK $USATR $NVDA

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

One of the better, and more accurate posts I’ve seen today.

$BE $TSLA

[Ultimus Wealth @E_Kalamaras]

@Paarit1 @markminervini Tiny position