2-time U.S. Investing Champion. Author Trade Like A Stock Market Wizard and Think & Trade Like a Champion. Featured in Stock Market Wizards. Read disclosure.
When I make a trade, my thinking is never about being right or even wrong. It's about risk vs. reward. I call it Bell Curve Thinking. I ask myself, if I make this trade 1000 times, does it come out a winner. Is it likely that the trade's upside is at least 2-3X the my stop? If I get those right, the rest takes care of itself.
My most recent $SPY short is a perfect example. The stock fell 5X my stop. I had the opportunity to capture 5Rs. But that's precisely what afforded me to hold for a bigger move while improving my stop to breakeven. I made that decision based on the odds at the time. If I turn out to be wrong... nothing lost. Next.
@commonskeleton Yes. I'm not willing to go out the liquidity curve and give up the degree of control I have over risk, which would come with drawdowns. And besides, after nine-figures, do you really need more money? I don't.
Will seasonality and cyclical tendencies bail the market out as we head into two of the stronger months of the year?
UPDATE: On October 15, I added the $SPY short to our portfolio in anticipation of a general market decline. At the time, the position was initiated as a hedge against our long exposure.
Since then, the market declined, with the $QQQ falling 11% and the $SPY declining 5% from our entry price (short). That weakness stopped us out of all but one of our long positions ($TEVA) - either at small losses or with profits on stocks where we had backstopped gains.
By default, as our long exposure came down, the $SPY short transitioned from being a hedge to leaving us net short the market.
We view the recent action as a stealth bear market in certain areas, where the major indexes have masked significant deterioration beneath the surface, particularly among AI infrastructure and technology stocks. Many of those names have suffered substantial declines from their highs, driving them to oversold levels.
My original stop on the $SPY was 778.00, which represented a new all-time high only about 1% above our short price. I have now improved that stop to our breakeven price of 769.64, eliminating stop-loss risk on the position.
The trade has already been a success from a risk/reward standpoint. We initially risked approximately 1%, while the $SPY declined roughly 5% from our entry—about a 5R move.
Our decision to hold for a potentially larger move was based first on the position serving as a hedge and, subsequently, on our ability to de-risk the trade to the point where we now have zero principal risk.
This is a classic way I approach many of my market/ETF trades when shorting the general market.
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99.99% of my followers are super cool awesome human beings that are dedicated to learning and becoming better traders. To them I say, love, respect and best wishes. Keep fighting the good fight. I hope I've been an inspiration. 💪😎💪
ATTENTION - If you choose to comment on or criticize my posts unsolicited, don’t get offended when I respond. I don’t ask for your input, and I don’t go to your page to criticize you. If I did, I would respect you're right to respond on your own page however you choose, and would consider it a privilege that you allowed me the opportunity to follow you in the first place and have discourse.
If you can dish it out, you need to be able to take it. If you can’t, I’ll block you.
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Friends... please stop sending me messages telling me not to respond to the Negatoilets. They don't make me mad or emotional. I find it fun to joust with them. They are the ones most in need of help, and believe it or not, every now and then some of them turn the corner and I save a few. And lastly, the trolls who are rude and obnoxious - at a minimum - deserve to be told to FO before I block them. 😁
@thedoctb If that's the feeling you get from that post, I feel really sorry for you. Best wishes. I hope you get past your ego someday and find happiness.
If you're afraid of failing, being embarrassed, or being humiliated, you need to turn that ego-driven headwind into powerful tailwind.
Instead of fearing failure, fear never trying. Fear living your entire life without ever discovering what you were truly capable of becoming. Fear leaving your potential unrealized.
The fear of what others might think will keep you imprisoned in mediocrity if you allow it. Stop seeking approval. Stop worrying about criticism. Stop allowing your ego to stand between you and your dreams.
Advance boldly in the direction of your dreams, independent of the good opinion of others. Especially those closest to you.
The people who love you want to protect you. They'll tell you to play it safe. Get a secure job. Stay in school. Become a doctor or a lawyer. They'll tell you that trading is gambling, that your dreams are unrealistic, that you're taking too much risk.
They don't want to see you fail. And their intentions may be good. But in their desire to protect you from failure, they often overlook the most important thing of all: What do YOU want? What is YOUR dream?
They're looking at your life through the lens of their own fears, limitations, and expectations. But they're not the ones who have to live your life. You are.
And there's something far worse than disappointing the people around you. It's reaching the end of your life and realizing you disappointed yourself.
Because the greatest failure isn't trying and falling short, it's never having the courage to find out just how far you could have gone.
@trippyytulip Do you people know how to read? Who said i was covering? I clearly said I would cover at a stop that is above the market and gave the specific price.
@Balastocksdude Lol! With all due respect, a market rallying 3% off the low during a decline is nothing new or different from any other time in history.
@Boriouz@drntrader Maybe you should get to know someone before you judge them. At the very least, ask someone who knows me closely. There are many here on Twitter.
@Boriouz@drntrader I am blissfully happy. My life is wonderful. But that doesn't mean I answer people's questions in the candy-coated PC way that all you scared sheep have come to expect. Sorry if I disappoint you. But most of my followers appreciate my blunt honesty.