Eric Kopen

Trading Strategist | Prediction Markets at DraftKings

[Jason Robins @JasonDRobins]

NBA Finals Game 1 delivered the biggest active customer day in DraftKings Predictions history.

Bigger than the Super Bowl.

That's the power of bringing sports experiences nationwide. And we're just getting started.

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

@AsymmInvesting @NickPreszler Yes, Kalshi refunded a market fairly recently

https://t.co/34agKN3WMa

[Fairplaygov @fairplaygov]

DraftKings Exchange (DKeX) says in a newly-posted CFTC filing that its Market Maker Program will become effective June 8. Virtually all details are confidential. Below are the publicly available fees posted on its website.

[InGame @InGameHQ]

DraftKings appears set to launch its in-house prediction market exchange, as the exchange has self-certified its first contracts, which could go live Wednesday, while also debuting new branding for its in-house exchange.

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

Excited to share I’ve joined DraftKings, working on our expansion into prediction markets with a focus on market making.

I’ve wound down @PrediDesk as I start this new role, appreciate all the support. Looking forward to staying connected with everyone in the space.

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

@ButlerBets For your second point about not switching platforms for better pricing, can you please let me know what your source is? Thank you!

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

@BenHorney @FOS no, not the combos!!! 😭

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

I appreciate the information value we get from prediction markets, but for the typical retail consumer that trades them, the experience is pretty much the same as gambling.

At the end of the day, no net new wealth is being generated for participants in markets listed on either a sports book or predictions platform. It doesn’t matter if it is a book setting odds or market makers taking a spread, it is impossible for everyone to win, and majority of users will lose money.

So sure, we can argue on the semantics of if they’re technically gambling or not… but I’m not sure that distinction matters in practice. Regardless, prediction market consumer protections and regulations should mirror the guardrails we set for traditional gambling.

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

@DustinGouker I was gonna say you missed the most important part

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

@itsmarkmoran *gets caught*
"nah... it was all a part of the plan😎"

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

@Novig @BigBuckHunterrr @Flupnolide Henry talking about the regulatory concerns of fast feeding and clearing the book in the last interview question was interesting, would have never considered that. Curious how those safeguards against that can be systematically implemented

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

@MickBransfield Pour one out for this anonymous market maker 😂

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

@WhisperDispatch I think the deliniation between gambling and speculation is important, especially in terms of prediction markets.

As for investing, that should really be reserved to asset classes (like stocks) where wealth can be generated for ALL participants.

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

I have a new definition proposal for the gambling or not debate:

1) GAMBLING = zero-sum markets that are entirely luck based (roulette, slots, etc.) or where skill is deterministic (blackjack)

2) SPECULATION = zero-sum markets that have a non-deterministic skill component (prediction markets, weather derivatives, options, etc.)

3) INVESTING = markets that are not zero-sum (stocks)

Thoughts? 👂

[PrediDesk @PrediDesk]

Y'all are sleeping on this! Start smart routing your orders and stop throwing away your money.

https://t.co/b8NTzOyciA

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

I was thinking about this from the other direction... what if as FanDuel/DraftKings/other sports books build their prediction market platform they expand to elections, crypto, stocks, and other financial products?

I feel like in the same way people don't want sports on their Charles Schwab app they won't want NVDA options on their FanDuel app.

Maybe there will be companies that own end-to-end finance super app infrastructure, but they'll need to have distinct user experiences imo.

[PrediDesk @PrediDesk]

...aaaaaaand Polymarket just announced the same thing.

https://t.co/ehVG9fM7oJ

[Eric Kopen @e_kopen]

@Polymarket damn y'all had this READY to go right after Kalshi announced the same thing 😭