US housing affordability is worse today than the peak of the last housing bubble. The median American household would need to spend 43% of their income to afford the median priced home.
After 25 consecutive increases, YoY Shelter CPI has moved down for 4 straight months, from 8.2% in March (highest since 1982) to 7.7% in July. A continued move lower in Shelter inflation will have a big impact on overall CPI as Shelter represents more than a third of the index.
Headline CPI set to tumble to 3.1% Y/Y in June from 4.0%, at which point it reverses higher again. And once China stimulates (Beijing can't have deflation and record high youth unemployment) and commodities surge, all bets are off
Overall US CPI moved down to 3.0% in June, the 12th consecutive decline in the YoY rate of inflation and the lowest level since March 2021.
US Core CPI (ex-Food/Energy) moved down to 4.9% YoY, the lowest reading since October 2021.
After 25 consecutive increases, YoY Shelter CPI has moved down for 3 straight months, from 8.2% in March (highest since 1982) to 7.8% in June. A continued move lower in Shelter inflation will have a big impact on overall CPI as Shelter represents more than a third of the index.
Rent disinflation is now finally starting to show up in official CPI data—and based on leading indicators from private sector data on new leases, more rent disinflation is coming down the pipeline.
ApartmentList's data actually shows rents decreasing slightly since last year
Our alt inflation headline reads out:
Real time headline inflation of 0.16% instead of 3.1%.
Yes that is a 0 handle on real time headline inflation.
Our Alt Core inflation = 1.4% instead of official BLS 4.8%.
Fed should stop the hikes!
Global Central Bank Update:
-UK: 25 bps hike to 1.00%
-India: 40 bps hike to 4.40%
-US: 50 bps hike to 0.75%-1.00%
-Hong Kong: 50 bps hike to 1.25%
-Saudi Arabia: 50 bps hike to 1.75%
-Brazil: 100 bps hike to 12.75%
Con la compañia de @anaveran@ea_gonzalez y @MoJuanseb tenemos el gusto de contarles las causas de la caída de los mercados financieros y las expectativas de tasas y ganancias de compañias esta semana https://t.co/HhJZmVWkzG
Global Central Bank Update:
-Mexico hikes rates for the 4th time this year, 25 bps increase to 5.0%.
-Peru hikes rates for the 4th time this year, 50 bps increase to 2.0%.
The Great Normalization continues...
https://t.co/Qik2TqFFU5