Eagle's Orbit

App developer, aurora expert, and astronomy enthusiast.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

Currently there is a small and slow CME en route, only expected to make a glancing blow tomorrow. Chances for storms are only 15%.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

Solar activity has been fairly quiet lately, but there's hope for more to come. Predictions for M-flares over the next few days are 25%.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

As it retreats to the farside of the Sun, AR1875 taunts us with one last X-class flare.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

We're currently in the midst of a massive M-class flare (at least M8 and climbing) from AR1875. Can't wait to see what comes from that..

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

NOAA/SWPC forecasts for geomagnetic storms for Oct. 25 are elevated to 50% with 2 small CMEs expected to arrive.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

NOAA predicts a 20% chance for M-flares over the next few days, perhaps increasing as new giant sunspot groups take aim at Earth.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

As I suspected, the latest NOAA/SWPC models confirm there are two CMEs approaching Earth, expected for Oct.15-16.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

@WMassWx Thanks for the retweet! Hope to see some aurora in our neighborhood.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

Latest NOAA/SWPC models show an incoming CME due to strike early Oct 15. Perhaps another in addition to this one.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

Confirming that the recent M-1.7 flare originated from AR1865, which is facing Earth almost directly. Another incoming CME?

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

Chances for M/X flares remain at 40%/15% respectively. About 30 minutes ago, the Sun's X-ray output topped out at an M1-flare. More soon..

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

Both AR1861 and AR1865 now have Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic fields. Chances for M-flares have been raised again to 40%, and 15% for X-flares.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

An M1.5 flare occurred a few hours ago with an accompanying CME, followed by another C5.1 flare. More details about the CME later.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

AR1865 has now has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic field, the class which most often produces M and X flares.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

NOAA predicts 25% chance for M-flares, 5% for X-flares over the next few days, namely because of AR1865 which released M-2.8 flare yesterday

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

AR1856, the sunspot that started all of this is diminishing, but there is a whole mess of new sunspots emerging from the far-side of the Sun

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

Still in the midst of a minor geomagnetic storm. Northern latitudes with clear skies ought to see some #aurora.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

It appears that the incoming CME has struck earlier than expected, and has already caused a minor geomagnetic storm.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

A CME erupted from AR1856 last night during a C-6.2 flare. Expected time of impact is late Oct. 9/early Oct. 10.

[Eagle's Orbit @EaglesOrbit]

NOAA forecasts for M-class flares remain at 10% over the next few days, mainly from AR1856.