Oral Wegovy is indeed becoming a game changer for Novo Nordisk
The market launch is more than a success, the growth is remarkable!
Now the tables seem to be turning, as Lilly is now lagging behind.
$LLY has shown weakness lately, while $NVO is making up ground.
$LLY is likely facing a similar drawdown like $NVO last year now.
I don't think the drawdown will be that severe, but the valuation will still be adjusted downwards.
That would be ideal, because the market expects further growth. This divergence would then present a buying opportunity for $LLY
I think Mr. Market is switching back to $NVO here
NFA
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes $NVO Market Maker edition...
Next week, on the 8th of April, $NVO is paying out its dividend of roughly $1.25 a share, which is equivalent to about 3% of the stock price.
Now studies are rare on payout date and are more common on ex-dividend, but lately I have noticed a pattern on very oversold valuish stocks.
On the way down, they keep getting oversold and more oversold and don't bounce. Meanwhile, they are being accumulated by value investors, dip buyers, and dividend bros.
Eventually, a stock bottoms out and reaches equilibrium and starts turning up. The problem is the value buyer and dividend bros don't sell.
As the stock moves up, dealers have to buy stock as traders jump on the momentum flip. The more stock/options they buy they more dealers have to buy to hedge as the price moves upwards along the option distribution curve.
Now layer this in with Novo's constant share buying of 250K a day, and then the kicker. The dividend. Many investors and especially the dividend bros are set up to reinvest dividends.
On April 8th, dealers need to buy shares for all their clients. Except there are a few sellers. You completely nuked the stock, now they are NOT selling.
Not only that, but given the low stock price, the dividend allows investors to buy many more shares. Dealers need to induce selling, but the only way that happens is with a large move upward.
$HOOD at IPO (July 2021):
• $38/share
• 11M funded accounts
• $44B assets under custody
• $713M annual revenue
• Unprofitable
$HOOD today:
• $66/share
• 27M funded accounts
• $322B assets under custody
• $4.4B annual revenue
• ~2.1B gross profit run-rate
Up just 74% from the IPO price despite revenue growing more than 6x, assets under custody growing more than 7x & the business now being profitable.
#PRESS The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved our once-weekly high-dose injectable semaglutide (7.2 mg) to reduce excess body weight and maintain more weight loss long-term.
Learn more in the company announcement here: https://t.co/YHoqfer79J
$NVO
In the LOAD THE BOAT ZONE
Price is exactly where it was before the GLP craze began, sitting on the 200 MONTHLY MA, with +33% Net Margin.
Easiest buy.
This stock will at least TRIPLE from current levels (200%+ upside) within the next two years.
I’ll start. My highest-conviction pick is $NVO.
Honorable mention: $JD.
Now it’s your turn:
What’s your top pick and why?
The data for the week ending March 6, 2026, just provided another strong signal for Novo Nordisk and Obesity.
Oral breakout: 81k and climbing
The launch of the Wegovy pill is moving from a to a structural shift. In its 9th week of launch, the oral version hit 81,184 TRx, growing +10.4% week over week.
Why is this important: This growth is coming primarily from the visible retail tape. We know from previous weeks that direct-to-consumer and telehealth channels, which are the primary drivers for cash-pay patients, are often excluded or under-projected in these numbers. If the retail channel is doing 81k, the hidden volume in the broader ecosystem is significantly higher.
The biggest bear case for $NVO was that the pill would simply eat the injectable pen business. The data for March 6 actually counters that thesis.
Wegovy Total TRx: 377,606 (+7.7% WoW).
Injectable (Pen) Volume: Even when you exclude the oral version, the legacy pen business grew +7.0%.
We are seeing a strong volume reaction in the pen business, partially driven by the lower price point and improved supply. The pill is not a replacement but rather a recruitment tool. Again, this also sheds light on the new $HIMS deal. It is bringing in a new demographic, likely those who were needle-phobic or waiting for a simpler format, without eroding the high-conviction injectable base.
The leading indicator of future market share is Starter Doses (NBRx), and the funnel has never been wider. The total market for GLP-1 starters hit a new record high of 500k TRx this week.
- Split: Total starters were higher by 12k compared to the previous week.
- Winner: Novo gained 8k of those new starters, while Lilly gained 4k.
Novo is capturing double the incremental growth in new patients compared to $LLY. This is the clearest evidence yet that the Zepbound momentum is facing a headwind in the form of a more diverse and accessible Novo portfolio/form factor.
Lilly has leaned heavily on Zepbound vials to maintain its volume lead, with vials reaching 290k TRx this week. Even with the vials, the core injectable business is seeing strong competition. When we exclude the vial distortion, Zepbound would have been down in previous weeks where Wegovy was already showing recovery.
Lilly is right now playing a defensive game with lower priced vials. Novo is playing an offensive game with a multi-form factor (oral + pen) strategy that is actually accelerating new patient acquisition.
We are seeing a strong volume reaction that is likely to exceed guidance that assumed more limited pen growth.
The catalysts ahead remains solid:
- July: Medicare obesity coverage begins.
- Q3/Q4: High-dose Wegovy (7.2mg) launch to challenge the efficacy gap.
- Late 2026: CagriSema approval (potential 23% weight loss)
Competition will intensify when Lilly brings out the Orfo pill in April (assumed).
Overall the Obesity market is expanding and that is positive for patients and for both Novo and Lilly.
$NVO $LLY $VKTX
@investseekers@ResearchPulse1@JCanNuSH
@growthrapidly $NVO Wagovy Pill is 70k subscriptions a month (biggest launch in history) yet their guidance forecasts 2k a month. This is going back to $55 a share when they report earnings in May.