Wasim

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[Wasim @earningsintel]

$NKE Q4 earnings scorecard just dropped 🧾
Interesting results this quarter. Read the full breakdown in bio before making any decisions.

[Wasim @earningsintel]

I'm watching Delta Airlines $DAL 🛫 in the coming days. Its earnings come out in a few days. The number that actually matters this quarter (much more than EPS) is it's the fuel recapture %

here's why:

⚠️ Middle East conflict roughly doubled jet fuel to ~$4.30/gal
📊 that's a $2B+ headwind to Q2 alone
🎯 management's target was to recapture 40-50% of it through fares/capacity cuts this quarter
🔁 stated goal beyond that is recapture ALL of it (no timeline attached)

if recapture tracks at or above guidance, the "fuel spike is a temporary headwind, not a structural problem" story holds.

If it stalls below 40% for two quarters running → the whole "we're structurally more resilient than prior cycles" narrative gets a lot harder to defend

📌 tracking this one closely into the next print

I'm watching this thesis quarter over quarter, sign up for the newsletter to catch the update when it drops 🔗 in bio

[Wasim @earningsintel]

It's interesting that most investors can tell you why they bought a stock, but almost none can tell you what would make them sell it.

It's simple really. If you own a position and you can't name the 3-4 specific things management needs to deliver next quarter to justify holding it, you're going into this blind, and you don't really have a thesis.

This is a big part behind why I started Earnings Intel (https://t.co/F2cuy8Zk5e). I haven't come across a more comprehensive milestone tracker with over 20 trackable milestones (with different weights) and targets built around a core thesis for each company in my coverage universe.

There's a structured tranch signal, clear add, cut, or hold signals, no emotional weight to investing, and so much more, completely for free. Each milestone gets weighted (Critical, High, Medium, Low) and tied to a clear rule: if this hits, we add. If it misses, we cut. If it's mixed, we hold and wait for the next data point.

The single most useful thing this forces you to do is name your Thesis Anchor before you need it. This is the one thing that if management softens or walks back, changes your entire read on the stock. Most people only figure out what that sentence was after it already broke. Stress test your portfolio against real trip wires and see if the evidence is actually showing up or not.

The market doesn't reward conviction. It rewards conviction you can falsify. If you're holding a stock right now and you genuinely can't answer "what does management need to say on the next call for me to still believe this," you may not be able to tell when the fall comes.

I write this stuff up scorecard by scorecard as part of my coverage. If you want to see the framework applied in real time across names like $MU, $NVDA, $PLTR and others, the newsletter link is in my bio.

[Wasim @earningsintel]

Subscribe to my newsletter if you are interested in tracking Upwork stock over time. I'll be sharing a detailed scorecard this month, because Upwork releases it's earnings in July

Highly recommended if this stock is in your portfolio

https://t.co/ylD8JddN9V

[Wasim @earningsintel]

Everyone covering $UPWK is debating macro vs AI.

Nobody on the earnings call asked the one question that decides the next 5 years:

Is the supply side of this marketplace healthy?

I actually freelance on Upwork. Here's what Wall Street can't see 🧵👇

[Wasim @earningsintel]

One more tell to watch:
If marketplace GSV keeps softening and management's explanation stays 100% macro/AI (zero acknowledgment of supply-side health) while connects and monetization revenue climbs...

That negative space IS the signal.

[Wasim @earningsintel]

@mrfundman Funny because following the book would actually explain this sell off. Why should I pay almost 400 times the earnings for any stock unless I genuinely believe it's going to double every three months

[Wasim @earningsintel]

So Michael Burry just disclosed on his Substack a short position on Micron Technology $MU. This isn't an explicit short position against Micron but an indirect short through SOXX

For those who don't know this is the guy who predicted the 2008 stock market crash before anyone else. (There's a cool movie about him called the Big Short, where he's played by Christian Bale)

Burry's main argument seems to be that South Korea's recent announcement of a large-scale semiconductor cluster investment may mark "the beginning of the end" of the current chip cycle, and warns that capital spending may not yield returns.

Considering that $MU is a cyclical commodity producer with what looks like peak pricing, he suggests the Korean capacity announcement (Samsung and SK Hynix) signals incoming supply that will break the current pricing environment.

My honest thoughts on this thesis, having tracked 24 milestones on the company (covered on my Substack), is that this may not be the case just yet..

Micron just delivered a superstar quarter with tremendous growth and margins, signed 16 take-or-pay strategic customer agreements with no cancellation clauses, price floors above prior peak margins, $22B in customer deposits, and tightness now extended "beyond 2027" according to management.

The cycle doesn't turn that quick after numbers this compelling. The typical early warning signs of a memory cycle top are things like inventory days creeping up, pricing language softening from "tight" to "stable," customer fulfillment rates improving without a commensurate revenue step-up, management hedging on CapEx commitments, or SCA momentum stalling. We saw zero of those on this call. Inventory days were actually down at 120 and management specifically called out DRAM inventory as "very tight and below 120 days"

Burry is making a cycle call. But I think it's way too soon to predict whether the cycle is going down. The orchid

Also keep in mind that this is part of a broader bearish positioning across the AI trade. Burry is short Nvidia at $198.09, Applied Materials at $729.40, Tesla at $416.22, the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX at $642.80, and Caterpillar at $1,060.98.

[Polymarket Money @PolymarketMoney]

BREAKING: Michael Burry opened a bearish position in Micron.

[Wasim @earningsintel]

I've been following $NKE for a while, and management's entire thesis in recent times has been that they're in the middle of a deliberate, sequenced comeback. They've comitted a few strategic blunders following the Covid period (such as going all in on the direct to consumer model, flooding the market with AF1, AJ1, Dunks, which killed the heat on some of their best franchises, misreading China's channel dynamics and letting inventory pile up, and much more), but they're committing to a proper comeback.

They did mention that revenue would be down low single digits for the forward period covering Q4 FY2026 through Q2 FY2027, and that's what happened. To be fair, they did broadly deliver on the areas they said they are focused on. Revenue came in at the guided range. North America grew. The World Cup execution outperformed. Gross margin is actually inflecting one quarter earlier than promised. On the narrow question of did management do what they said they would do, the honest answer is mostly yes. I'm tracking about 25 milestones and they did deliver on about 13 of them, while the rest either remain pending or a clear misses (You can see these milestones on my Substack, link in bio, free to read, no need to subscribe).

Performance-wise the company is doing adequately, because they set the bar low, which was smart of them. No problem with that. But there are other risk factors that became apparent. For instance, the macro environment showed up mid-quarter and really complicated the recovery narrative. After a strong March, retail sales decelerated sharply in mid-April because of higher gas prices in North America which hurt discretionary spending. Revenue guidance for the forward period was revised from down low single digits to down low to mid-single digits as a direct consequence.

Makes sense, obviously, but shows how fragile this entire recovery thesis actually is.

There are a few more risks that just got introduced as well, apart from the macro. For example the CFO (who actually devised the entire recovery roadmap) is departing from the company, and will be replaced.

These are just some of the challenges the company still faces despite setting the bar so low.

Then we get to its multiples. 27 times its earnings (both forward and trailing). To me, this is the number that makes the least sense after these earnings. For context, the median PE ratio in the consumer discretionary sector is closer to 16.

Why is this stock trading at such a premium to its peers in the sector, when it is clearly struggling to meet its recovery plans? I know the bull argument is brand equity, strong athlete relationships, global wholesale infrastructure, innovation labs, a cultural footprint, etc. Yes I understand no competitor can replicate these, but why is it assigned so much value if it cannot be leveraged to ensure financial recovery.

None of the weakness we see is consistent with a 27.5x PE ratio, and this is why I think the stock is going to continue a slow bleed as it has in the last several years.

(sorry I didn't realize this would turn out so long when I started typing it out)

[Wasim @earningsintel]

$NKE Q4 earnings scorecard just dropped 🧾
Interesting results this quarter. Read the full breakdown in bio before making any decisions.

[Wasim @earningsintel]

No offense, but this sounds like an emotional argument.

"A strong show that they have fixed the issue in China alone would likely see the share price rerate between $70-$80, fast."

The China fix is not a one time magical patch up that would be felt instantaneously, it will take several years, and depend on so many different factors simultaneously. Management knows this too, that's why they've said near term China performance will remain "in line with recent performance," which was -17% in Q4.

They are simultaneously reducing sell-in, cleaning partner inventory, rebuilding digital full-price realization, and only now hiring a local product creation team whose first locally designed products will not reach the market until holiday 2027. No one inside Nike is even giving this $70 - $80 target.

[Wasim @earningsintel]

Sorry $NKE , nobody wants overpriced shoes anymore. We're only paying for overpriced RAM in this market

[Wasim @earningsintel]

$MSFT 🧵

A bear case is making rounds on MSFT and the CLOUD Act argument is actually worth reading carefully imo👇

The core claim is that the EU's new cloud sovereignty framework (CADA) doesn't disqualify Azure because of price or performance

It disqualifies it because Microsoft is a US company 🇺🇸

Now that's a problem you can't engineer around with Frankfurt data centers

So here's what's real vs what's overstated:

✅ VALID The jurisdictional argument is structurally correct CapEx timing is a real tension at 2.6% FCF yield Regulatory accumulation (Teams, DMA, UK CMA) does chip away at bundling power

⚠️ OVERSTATED The exposure is sovereign PUBLIC SECTOR Azure in Europe (a subset of a subset) Enterprise Azure in Europe has years of switching cost moat CADA was adopted 3 weeks ago. MFF runs 2028-2034. These don't hit Q4 numbers

The timing problem for bears: management just committed to Azure H2 2026 acceleration driven by supply unlocks

Even if the bear is right on direction, the stock could re-rate higher before European drag shows up in reported numbers

My honest view is that this belongs in the RISK SECTION of an MSFT thesis, not a standalone short at current prices

You'd need European public sector Azure as a % of segment revenue to size this properly, and Microsoft doesn't disclose that

[Wasim @earningsintel]

Interestingly enough, Boeing $BA has a ~$700B backlog.

BUT, the caveat is that new customers ordering today won't see delivery until the 2030s.

So clearly, the company does not have a demand problem. (They never actually did)

📋 What they do have is a $700B execution problem, and I kind of see that as its bull case.

Here's why the thesis is almost universally framed backwards:

📌 BCA backlog: $576B (6,100+ aircraft)
📌 BDS backlog: $86B (record)
📌 BGS backlog: $33B (record)

Total: nearly $700B in revenue that is already sold.

So you don't need to engage in complex demand forecasting needed, or market timing, etc.

The only question is how fast they can build the planes. Interestingly enough, that question has a very specific answer right now:

✅ 737 line just passed the FAA capstone review for rate 47

✅ North Line in Everett is being stood up for rate 52

Management has a stated path to 63/month long term

Every rate increase = more backlog converted to cash.

Higher volumes = lower unit costs through absorption.

Better-priced aircraft entering the mix = margin expansion on top.

This isn't a story about whether Boeing recovers.

It's a story about how fast.