Prashant Chhabra

Flawed;Ameliorating!
Invading trends in Financial Markets.
Between two ends of the Spectrum lies Limitlessness.
Can't beat Randomness & Regression to the Mean.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$UKOIL: 🚨Increased risks to the downside🚨
Quarterly: Strong macro reversal upward.

Monthly: Persistent bullish structure with slight cooling.

Weekly: Volatile, but repeated recovery after weakness.

Daily: Strong swings, but upside bursts dominate.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$UKOIL: While the quarterly macro regime is bullish, the monthly regime though bullish is reflecting higher entropy and this elevated volatility is felt in the weekly regime which is directly affecting and limiting the upside on the daily timeframe.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY

Quarterly: Macro regime flipped sharply.

Monthly: Persistent weakness followed by a recovery attempt.

Weekly: Strong upside impulse, interruption, then unstable stabilization.

Daily: Alternating behavior — high entropy and active conflict, searching for direction.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: With the support of a bearish macro regime, the index has continued to slide in the last two days.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$UKOIL: While the quarterly macro regime is bullish, the monthly regime though bullish is reflecting higher entropy and this elevated volatility is felt in the weekly regime which is directly affecting and limiting the upside on the daily timeframe.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

The Brent oil regressed sharply to the mean. This move is entirely dominated by the sellers on the shorter time frame; the downside is limited as the higher time frame supports the bullish outlook.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: With the support of a bearish macro regime, the index has continued to slide in the last two days.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: in a bearish macro regime, the weekly trend was aiding whatever upside we have seen, which is now losing strength as the daily trend is leading in the bearish direction.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: in a bearish macro regime, the weekly trend was aiding whatever upside we have seen, which is now losing strength as the daily trend is leading in the bearish direction.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: The bullish undercurrent is dominated by the Weekly timeframe, while on the Daily timeframe, the market is transitioning into an oscillatory pattern of alternating volatile bullish and bearish moves, a sign of higher entropy.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

#US10Y: In a macro regime that points to higher 10 year yields, the volatility is elevated in the medium to short term.

[Chenthil @jcrajan00]

India kept fuel prices frozen for 14 months straight. Petrol, diesel, LPG — not a single revision despite crude whipsawing between $65 and $95.

Most countries cannot do this without blowing up their fiscal. India pulled it off because of one thing nobody talks about: refining capacity.

We are now the world's fourth-largest refiner. 254 MTPA capacity. Our refineries process crude 15-20% cheaper than global benchmarks because of scale and complexity. Reliance's Jamnagar alone does 1.4 million barrels a day — more than most OPEC countries produce.

In the 2008 oil shock, India had to issue Rs 1.4 lakh crore in oil bonds because we could not absorb the price spike. In 2026, with a bigger crisis in West Asia, we absorbed it without bonds, without subsidies blowing up, and without passing the cost to consumers.

The difference is 18 years of refining investment. We doubled capacity, upgraded to complex refineries that handle heavier crude, and diversified sourcing away from the Gulf.

Refining is not glamorous. Nobody tweets about it. But it is the reason your petrol bill did not go up this year.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: The bullish undercurrent is dominated by the Weekly timeframe, while on the Daily timeframe, the market is transitioning into an oscillatory pattern of alternating volatile bullish and bearish moves, a sign of higher entropy.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: The heatmap depiction of trend strength over varying timeframes transpires a bullish under-current.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

The Brent oil regressed sharply to the mean. This move is entirely dominated by the sellers on the shorter time frame; the downside is limited as the higher time frame supports the bullish outlook.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

Brent oil is gradually regressing to the mean on the daily time frame, hence limiting upside even though the higher time frames are strongly bullish.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

Brent oil is gradually regressing to the mean on the daily time frame, hence limiting upside even though the higher time frames are strongly bullish.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

Brent oil is trading strong over all timeframes, typically an ideal condition to regress to the mean over the short to medium term.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

Brent oil is trading strong over all timeframes, typically an ideal condition to regress to the mean over the short to medium term.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

In line with higher timeframes, the market isn't withdrawing a bid, which could send the prices crashing downwards. However, in the medium term, the prices are in a corrective bearish phase where the market is looking to sell the strength.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: The heatmap depiction of trend strength over varying timeframes transpires a bullish under-current.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: In line with varying timeframes, the market is lacking a bid, and prices are spiralling downwards, a trend that is likely to continue unless the weight of the evidence suggests otherwise.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: In line with varying timeframes, the market is lacking a bid, and prices are spiralling downwards, a trend that is likely to continue unless the weight of the evidence suggests otherwise.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: A smooth ride over the last few days - the characteristic short squeeze that has seemingly run its course.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

In line with higher timeframes, the market isn't withdrawing a bid, which could send the prices crashing downwards. However, in the medium term, the prices are in a corrective bearish phase where the market is looking to sell the strength.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

For reasons best known to the market, the secondary corrective downtrend in the oil market has reached a point of maximum volatility, also the point of plausible reversal.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

$NIFTY: A smooth ride over the last few days - the characteristic short squeeze that has seemingly run its course.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

Upon analysing $NIFTY over the last few days, the revelation of more instances of buying activity than selling is activating a chance of the countering secondary upmove.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

For reasons best known to the market, the secondary corrective downtrend in the oil market has reached a point of maximum volatility, also the point of plausible reversal.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

The brent oil is indiciating a ceilling at $115, with the trend quietly shifting to sell-on-rise and hence driving the market to a phase of secondary correction.

#OOTT

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

Upon analysing $NIFTY over the last few days, the revelation of more instances of buying activity than selling is activating a chance of the countering secondary upmove.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

@ManitobaCanuck I was long XLE from November 2025 onwards. Right Now just wait and watch.

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

I am avoiding the oil market entirely. Secondary moves are tricky.

[ManitobaCanuck @ManitobaCanuck]

@earthynative Are you short oil ?

[Prashant Chhabra @earthynative]

The brent oil is indiciating a ceilling at $115, with the trend quietly shifting to sell-on-rise and hence driving the market to a phase of secondary correction.

#OOTT