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[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

Thursday will begin with an extraordinary release of Retail Sales from Australia to reflect the impact of COVID-19. Analysts forecast a drop by almost half to 0.4% in June from the previous 0.9%. From Europe, we will be watching the German Preliminary CPI.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

From the UK, we will also be watching Retail Sales, which should have improved slightly to -0.2% in June. Canada will also release Retail Sales for May, and the US will end the week with Manufacturing PMI estimated at 51.6 and Services PMI for July at 52.6, respectively.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

On Friday, policymakers will be closely watching Japan's June CPI data. The core consumer price index, which excludes only food prices and is the BoJ's target, came in at 2.1% year-on-year in May and is now expected to rise to 2.2%. Also important will be July's Preliminary PMIs.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

The CPI report is also due in Canada and the loonie may not like any further rise in inflation. Finally, the U.S. will release Existing Homes Sales for last month, with estimates for a reading of 5.4 million.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

Wednesday is inflation data day. We start with the UK, with headline CPI forecast to rise to 9.3% year-on-year in June, up from 9.1% in May. In manufacturing inflation, however, analysts' forecasts point to a different outlook.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

There are traditionally no economic reports on Monday. From Germany, we will follow the Buba Monthly Report. After lunch, Canada will release Housing Starts data for June, which is expected to be 285,000.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

The Empire State Manufacturing Index for July is again forecast at -1.2 points, as in the previous reading, and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment for the same month should come in at 49 points.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

Friday kicked off with China's GDP expected to show the economy contracted by 1% in the second quarter due to the Shanghai lockdown. Retail Sales for June, however, should have risen 0.4% year-on-year and the Unemployment Rate should have fallen to 5.7%.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

Australia released Employment data early Thursday morning. Analysts' forecasts are for a weaker growth in jobs in June of 30 thousand. The Unemployment Rate for the same month should have fallen to 3.8%. After lunch from the US.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

On Tuesday, Germany will publish ZEW Economic Sentiment. The index has been in a deep freeze for months, with June’s reading at -28.0. It is expected to deteriorate to -40.0 points in July, which could cause the euro to start moving towards parity.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

US Inflation on the Horizon Along with Rate Hikes from the BoC and RBNZ

We have no major economic reports on Monday, but BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will testify before the UK Treasury Select Committee.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

In addition, during the day we have the Central Banking Forum organized by the ECB. This event is usually academic in nature, but market participants will still "listen" in the evening to hints from the "big three" - Fed President Powell, ECB President Lagarde and BoE Gov Bailey

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

Wednesday's day will begin with retail sales from Japan and Australia in May. Retail Sales in Japan should improve by up to 4% on an annual basis as the reopening phase continues. As for Australia, Retail Sales carry downward risks that may raise concerns about slowdown.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

In terms of data release, the week will include Durable Goods Orders from the United States on Monday, and is expected to fall to 0.1% in May. The Core orders should remain unchanged at 0.4%. We will also monitor the Pending Home Sales for May, which are expected at -3.5%.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

Global Trends of Slowing Growth, Rising Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Continue
After a constructive start last week, risk sentiment has deteriorated again as fears of a recession returned to markets and stocks, along with global yields, fell.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

Forecasts are for growth of up to 0.8% in April and a decline of up to 0.5% for core sales. The US report on Existing Home Sales in May is expected to show that the housing market continues to cool with a reading of 5.4 million.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

RBA Governor Lowe will speak on Tuesday, and the Minutes of the bank's last meeting will also be released. Markets will look for more signs of a more hawkish tone by Lowe and in the minutes, and this could be negative for local stocks. We'll see Canadian Retail Sales later.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

In the UK, Retail Sales in May will come out shortly thereafter, with economists forecast a decline to -0.2%. Numbers on Industrial Production in the United States is expected to slow in May, but remain stable at around 0.6%.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

On Friday, BoJ is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at -0.1%. The central bank should also continue to buy 10-year JGBs when needed to maintain a 0.25% yield on the cap.

[European Brokerage House @ebhforexcom]

In the afternoon from the USA, we will see the Housing Start, the Unemployment Claims and the business prospects of Philly Fed. Construction of new housing in May is projected at 1.71 million units, and the Manufacturing Index of the Philadelphia Fed for June to rise to 5.1 p.