If true, this is horrific news--and the U.S. military will have to address this publicly. Proximity of military compound obviously a factor, but our weapons also have pinpoint accuracy.
NEW: Investigators think American forces were likely responsible for an airstrike on a girls’ elementary school that killed dozens of children in Iran, a U.S. official said https://t.co/BqLqpw2fZi via @WSJ
BREAKING: Mehrabad is not a military base. It is the airport thirteen million Tehranis use to fly to Shiraz, Isfahan, Mashhad. The oldest airport in Iran. The hub connecting the capital to the provinces.
It is burning.
Israeli jets hit Mehrabad International Airport early this morning as part of the largest wave of strikes on Tehran since the war began eight days ago. Footage shows fires on the runway, smoke pouring from hangars, and at least one civilian aircraft destroyed on the tarmac. The IDF confirmed the strike, framing it as targeting regime infrastructure.
Here is what the IDF is not saying.
Mehrabad is dual use. The IRGC air transport division operates from the same runways Iran Air uses for domestic flights. Military cargo moves through the same terminals where families board flights. That dual use is not a flaw. It is a deliberate strategy embedding military logistics inside civilian infrastructure to raise the cost of targeting it.
Israel just accepted that cost.
The strategic logic is not about destroying a few aircraft. It is about severing Tehran’s ability to move personnel, equipment, and orders to the provinces at the exact moment when the survival of the Islamic Republic depends on whether the central government can maintain authority over thirty one autonomous IRGC commands scattered across a country the size of Western Europe.
This is the part nobody is connecting.
The IRGC’s Mosaic Defense doctrine was designed for exactly this scenario. Thirty one provincial commands, each with independent targeting authority, each pre-loaded with mission sets that do not require central direction. The doctrine works as a military strategy. It fails as a political strategy. Because the decisions that will determine whether this war ends in negotiation or nuclear breakout are political decisions that require a functioning center to make them. Whether to weaponize the uranium. Whether to accept a ceasefire. Whether to authorize Mojtaba Khamenei’s legitimacy or fracture into warlord fiefdoms.
Those decisions require communication between Tehran and the provinces. They require the physical movement of senior officials, clerical delegates, IRGC liaison officers. They require domestic air transport.
That transport is now on fire.
In 2003, the collapse of Iraq’s internal transportation was treated by American planners as incidental to the air campaign. It turned out to be decisive. When Baghdad could no longer reach its regional commands, those commands did not fight to the last man. They dissolved. Commanders made individual survival calculations. Units melted into the population.
Iran studied that collapse and built Mosaic Defense to survive decapitation. But the doctrine assumed provinces could sustain themselves independently. It did not assume the physical connective tissue between center and periphery would be destroyed while the center itself was already headless.
The runway is cratered. The question is whether the thirty one commands interpret the smoke over Mehrabad as evidence that the center still exists and is absorbing punishment, or as evidence that the center is gone and survival is now a provincial calculation.
That interpretation will determine the next phase of this war more than any bomb.
https://t.co/ULBgEzZ3A8
🇸🇦🇮🇷🇺🇸 Footage has emerged showing an Iranian ballistic missile making direct contact at the Prince Sultan Airbase, near Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Remember Riyadh assured Iran of closing its airspace to US/Israeli warplanes and then proceeded to allow a US stealth fighter through its airspace. If Saudi Arabia wasn't made aware that is equally bad and no excuse.
More natural consequences for Gulf vassalage. Not the best ROI this protection racket. Gulf Monarchies are learning all their protection money has been for nothing.
This gamble by Trump at the behest of his boss may end up with the shop keepers turning to more reliable protection once the dust settles. Bravo!
Remember when mongodb came out and everyone got so hyped and started using it just to end up switching back to sql?
Remember when microservices got hyped but now the industry recommends use a monolith first?
Remember when graphql came out and everyone started hyping it up until they ran into tons of short comings?
Give new tech 5 years and reevaluate. Adopt that mindset and become a senior engineer.
An interesting things about software engineers is that in a single career one could work in 4, 5, or more different domains.
In my career alone I build software for supply chain & logistics, finance, eCommerce, Marketing & AdTech, Pharmacy, etc.
In a single career a wide awake software engineer could learn how business works, how the economy works, bring lessons from one domain to help them in another.
Very few other fields have access to this much cross-domain expertise. Access to experts invested in teaching them the domain.
But some software engineers throw this advantage away by simply not caring at all about the business they are building for.
Don’t be one of those engineers.
Build up that asset stack of cross-domain knowledge, over a long time horizon it’ll be more helpful to you than you can imagine.
Rolling your own auth is nothing, have you tried implementing a searchable combobox with custom styles and select items??
I'll keep my auth, but give me a third party service for this!
Luck doesn’t just happen, it’s created. You can do things to increase the odds of serendipity.
Meeting more people makes you lucky. Learning more skills makes you lucky. Being willing to fail makes you lucky. Offering to help others more often makes you lucky.