Elections in Ukraine. Will Zelensky Win?
The recent statement by @SteveWitkoff , President Trump’s special representative for resolving the Ukrainian crisis, made headlines - Zelensky has agreed to hold elections.
I told about this since Trump mentioned Zelensky’s approval rating of 4%. It was clear even then that elections were inevitable, and that the United States would push for them - not to help Zelensky win, but as part of a broader political reset for democracy.
Immediately after Witkoff’s announcement, officials and media loyal to Zelensky Office began claiming that elections are impossible during wartime, that talk about elections is russian disinformation, and that Zelensky’s approval is still high - supposedly 57–74%. They even claimed his ratings increased after his confrontation with Trump in the White House.
To reinforce this narrative, Zelensky gave a public statement claiming that the Ukrainian people fully trust him and that Trump is misled by russian propaganda.
However, shortly after that, Zelensky’s team accepted all conditions presented by the United States at the Saudi Arabia meeting - including holding elections. This confirms that agreements had already been reached behind the scenes.
For the past several weeks, Zelensky publicly rejected the idea of elections while simultaneously ordering his media to promote fake polls and distractions - such as public reluctance to give up NATO ambitions or frozen russian assets. But this is simply a diversion from the more sensitive topic: the future of Crimea and the four occupied regions.
According to U.S. statement by Witkoff, Ukraine is being pushed to accept the loss of these territories - or has already done so in principle. The conversation about elections is being used to draw attention away from this reality.
Meanwhile, Zelensky’s team now claims they are ready to go to elections and even proposes holding them through the ДІЯ mobile application. This idea is legally and technically impossible, as ДІЯ is a British-registered platform and not authorized to conduct national elections.
What are Zelensky’s actual chances of winning?
To understand that, we need to look at the legal process. Since November 2023, under the guidance of oligarchs like Victor Pinchuk, all parliamentary factions signed a memorandum to effectively cancel elections and extend martial law indefinitely.
However, elections cannot be held under martial law - it must either be lifted or not renewed. As of now, martial law in Ukraine is set to expire on May 9, 2025.
If it is not renewed, then on May 10 Zelensky will no longer be president, and the Parliament will also lose its legal mandate. From that moment until the election, Ukraine will be governed by the Cabinet of Ministers. Parliament can still vote to appoint a new Cabinet before its mandate expires.
This means Zelensky will not be running as a sitting president, but as a regular candidate - significantly weakening his position. Meanwhile, the interim prime minister, who will lead the country for 90 days before the election, will have a real opportunity to gain public support.
This is why serious competition is now forming not around the presidency, but around the role of the next prime minister.
Alternatively, the U.S. and Russia may agree to establish a neutral transitional government that will manage the country from the end of martial law until the elections.
In either scenario, Zelensky is not seen as part of the future leadership. If he does not flee the country, his only remaining option may be to run for a symbolic position, such as head of a prison union.
I was the only Member of the Ukrainian Parliament who filed a lawsuit with the Supreme Court demanding that presidential elections be held in Ukraine.
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