@DukeDarls There is nothing wrong with investing in frozen food business.
I know someone who’s fish business (importation) is worth over $10m.
The main issue with that young man’s tweet was spending over 70% on liabilities.
Was at a dinner last Tuesday and the guy across from me said he makes his money selling supplements in a country I'd never considered.
Nigeria.
He's Nigerian-American. Born in Lagos, grew up in Houston. Moved back to Lagos 3 years ago to build ecom businesses.
$220K/month selling a men's vitality supplement. In Nigeria. On Facebook.
I asked about the logistics nightmare everyone warns about.
He said: "That's what Americans who've never been to Lagos think. Bosta handles my deliveries in 2-3 days across major cities. Cash-on-delivery is still 55% of my orders but Paystack handles the card payments and it works fine. My return rate is under 2% because Nigerian customers don't return products — they just don't reorder if they don't like it."
His CAC: $4. On a $18 AOV product adjusted for local pricing.
The margins work because his COGS are $3/unit manufactured locally and fulfillment is $1.50/order.
He said the hardest part wasn't logistics. It was getting the creative right. "Nigerian consumers respond to authority and social proof more than any market I've seen. Doctor endorsements, customer count callouts, and before/after imagery crush everything else."
Nigeria's ecom market hit $10.5 billion in 2026 and is growing at 14.6% CAGR — projected to reach $23 billion by 2032. 220 million people and the number of people running proper DTC supplement funnels there is essentially zero.
If you're Nigerian-American or West African — this market is yours to own before anyone else figures it out.
I'm going to make some obvious points.
(1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war.
(2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East.
(3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked.
(4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy.
(5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately.
(6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty.
That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area.
(7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people.
[a]: https://t.co/ITat4tmAFd
[b]: https://t.co/bWwiSQcgyt
[c]: https://t.co/FQCqMhy5d3