Trevor Wagener

Chief Economist & Director of Research Center @ccianet, Fmr Dep Chief Economist @StateDept Views my own, RTs/likes not endorsements

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

Amazon just opened its entire logistics network, including freight, warehousing, fulfillment, & delivery, to everyone. Including its own competitors!

Why would a company voluntarily hand its infrastructure to rivals? The economics are more interesting than they look. 🧵

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

@mattyglesias The data must flow.

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

@billyez2 Is it time for Late Bronze Age Collapse Twitter to become a thing?

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

@billyez2 Hope you're okay!

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

@tylercowen What query types made the improvement in judgment most clear?

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

@Neil_Irwin The mystifying land use is only between the Clarendon and Virginia Square metro stops.

Between Virginia Square and Ballston the land use is understandable.

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

My full analysis 🔗 👇
https://t.co/oViWOCzQqX

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

Amazon just opened its entire logistics network, including freight, warehousing, fulfillment, & delivery, to everyone. Including its own competitors!

Why would a company voluntarily hand its infrastructure to rivals? The economics are more interesting than they look. 🧵

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

So helping competitors lowers Amazon's own costs.

It's rational to cut a rival's logistics bill if doing so fills your network and drops your marginal cost per delivery. The rival benefits too. A classic pro-competitive offering.

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

@LeahLibresco @robbysoave Matt Yglesias said it: https://t.co/mxcvEIm5QA

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

The Democratic Party primary electorate becoming more left wing is entirely consistent with the median voter going to the right though.

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

@bendreyfuss If you want true architectural shock in New Haven, tour Yale's residential colleges and enjoy beautiful Collegiate Gothic and Georgian designs until you see the Modernist horrors Eero Saarinen inflicted on the campus in the 1960s (Morse and Stiles Colleges).

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

@MattZeitlin Does "Pareto tyranny" imply "Kaldor-Hicks liberation"?

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

@Brendan_Duke If we had taller buildings we could make the walk mostly shaded.

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

Full analysis: https://t.co/KjQaNgFz0u

What would change my mind: evidence domestic server assembly can scale to meet U.S. demand before 2030. If you have it, my replies are open.

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

92% of U.S. GDP growth in H1 2025 came from the AI data center buildout.

Phase 2 of the Section 232 semiconductor tariffs could hit it with a 15.6% construction tax.

I ran the numbers. The cost: ~$90 billion a year. 🧵

[Trevor Wagener @econwags]

Here's the thing: data centers are currently exempt from the tariff.

The Administration created that carveout in January because it recognized exactly this problem. Nothing in the supply chain facts has changed since.

The damage only happens if Phase 2 removes it.