Ed Hoir

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@3in5saved Great thx for this.
I think it will be surprising to see those HiSCR levels. I hope to see dt signal (more treatment related than A & N). Assuming a 3-4 dt at base line, what could be a reasonable reduction at 4 weeks ?
On CSU, people seem to be more skeptical.

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@fredvalletoux Compte tenu de la pagaille que cela va engendrer aupres de tous les acteurs directs et indirects de la filière, j'magine qu on ne vote pas une evolution aussi considerrable d une taxe à 6 semaines de son entrée en vigueur... ?

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@fredvalletoux Cette nouvelle taxe sucre est elle censée entrer en vigueur au 1er janvier 2025 ou au 1er janvier 2026 ?

[Peyman.Abedirad @PeymanAbedirad]

History lesson:

They increased rates from 1% on June 30, 2004 to 5.25% by June 2006; so 4.25% over a 2 year period.

This time, they have increased rates from 0% on March 17, 2022, to 5.25% by July 26, 2023; so 5.25% over a 1.33 year period.

Thus, they increased by a larger percentage over a shorter time period. One major difference between now and then is that the banking system is more resilient than before, those these unrealized bond losses may make them hurt. However, I don't think the banks will feel the pain especially with this new emergency program in place, unless we see a number of defaults which will be primarily caused by layoffs. If we see layoffs, then the banks will feel the effects of defaults in about 3 months time.

Unemployment back in 07-8 was at a low of 4.4% in march 2007, but steadily climbed to 4.7% in September 2007, which is when the first rate cut took place on september 18, 2007. (They held the rate at 5.25% for a year and 3 months). Unemployment then hit 5% by December 2007, increased rapidly to 7.3% by December 2008, and peaked at 10% in October 2009.

When did S&P 500 bottom you might ask? It bottomed in March 2009. By December 16, 2008, the fed had already cut the rate to 0%. Inflation peaked on July 2008 at 5.6% and fell to 0.1% by December 2008. The first deflation was in March 2009 at -0.4%. This was Peak FEAR sentiment.

Could history repeat itself in a similar way for different reasons? Maybe. Reduced consumer spending, high interest rates, exuberant hiring, and bond losses may lead to corporations needing to cut costs by laying off workers. The banks may also feel further stress due to those bond losses.

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@Biohazard3737 Too afraid of hot chicks doing dirty stuff, I guess.

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@Biohazard3737 The billion $ seems quite acheivable given the size of the other indications.
Any idea
1/ how long it could take them to get into the big ones like HCC, mCRC or mPC ?
2/ how far are BSX, MDT and MMSI with their owns ?

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@HimoraSlimane Interesting.
Mais le consensus 2025 est déjà à 8bn de CA et 2bn d EBITDA,
Ces perspectives devraient être pour une bonne part déjà pricées, ce qui explique aussi pourquoi le stock trade à un EV/EBITDA de 22.5x pour une moyenne historique (11 dernières années) de 15.3x, non ?

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@xavier_delmas Merci. Pkoi SVB a commencé à vendre ses AFS? Au départ il n y avait pas encore de retrait et de besoin de liquidité. S agissait il pour SVB de rapidement redéployer ses actifs pour pouvoir servir les interest bearing deposits vu l insuffisance des prêts consentis a taux variable?

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@marcfiorentino @Eric_Lewin Les fonds propres des banques se sont grandement ameliorés depuis 2008, ok, mais en valeur absolue, la dépréciation des actifs au bilan des banques doit être considerrable ces derniers mois, non ?

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@marcfiorentino @Eric_Lewin Emission très sympa comme d hab. Regrette cependant que la question centrale posée par Marc 30'50" du replay n ait pas été adressée : impact de la montée des taux sur les stocks de dette, et autres actifs au bilan des banques en general.

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@elonmusk Sounds great, but still eagerly awaiting for sth bigger: a Remake of Knight Rider starring Elon Musk and his new Teslatoy

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@PaulMadman75 Avec des multiples EV/EBITDA 2022 et 2023 de 17.3x et 14.9x, plutôt très raisonnable pour le seul pure player européen du cloud.
Surtout quand on compare à Digitalocean (EV/EBITDA 2022 et 2023 de 41.4x et 29.7x) ou Cloudflare (EV/EBITDA 2022 et 2023 de 386x et 262x)...

[Biotech2k @Biotech2k1]

Taking a look at the #CRISPR landscape.

This is a sector that went from hot to not in a real hurry lately as the biotech sector has collapsed. Here I am going to go over the sector and where I think the opportunities are.

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@brendan_49 From the NC410 SITC abstract : "Evaluation from samples to date available up to cycle 5 suggests that there was no reduction in the baseline C1Q level with subsequent dosing" ... does not sound like strong efficacy either.

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@PaulMadman75 3/ ... et c est dommage car, en ce qui me concerne si on avait pas les successions de news AAV et Covid, je serai rester. Les data en PG paraissent bien, et cette indication n est pas ridicule...

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@PaulMadman75 2/ il me semble que les prochaines data clinique sont celle sur le covid. A part les antiretroviraux de MRK, PFE et qq mab anticovid, tout se plante en général (surtout dans les formes severes). As U say "il faut rester mefiant" sur le CT.

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@PaulMadman75 1/ Thx, ama avec la news du jour, il est difficile de penser que les data de velobelimab sont meilleures que celle d avacopan (CCXI) en AAV. Avacopan vient d etre autorisé par la FDA et c est un comprimé. Velobelimab est un mab injectable approuvable au mieux dans 2 ans...

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@brendan_49 Thx for this. The Yale trial you are refering to seems to have started in early 2021. Do U think the data in Q1 2022 will include pts with that 10x increase ?

[Ed Hoir @ed_hoir]

@PaulMadman75 En PG, mais quid de L'AAV et du covid (les 2 prochaines news cliniques) ?
Au passage, bien vu pour PRC. Thx.