Spent quiet a bit of time setting up a bridge between @PropAlphaTrades and optionsflow signals into a one greybox signal. First signal live below +276pts on no MAE, curious to see how this plays out before any optimization attempts.
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$BTC Tracking the rest of this downtrend targeting the $75.6k support. Looks to be retracing here for W4 to ~$79k. This is a very important test of RESISTANCE! Initially, I believe the reaction will develop into a 5th wave (as shown). RSI does not have a divergence yet which should form at that 5th wave.
After support at $75.6k is reached, it's STILL possible for #BTC to come back UP to $79k+ resistance and then push even higher to complete macro Wave B to $85.3k- $93k. #Bitcoin SHOULD be reaching those higher resistance levels BEFORE the large drop that we're anticipating. I'll keep you updated as it develops!
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As Carl Jung put it, "Man needs difficulties. They are necessary for health." Yet most people instinctually avoid pain. This is true whether we are talking about building the body (e.g., weight lifting) or the mind (e.g., frustration, mental struggle, embarrassment, shame)--and especially true when people confront the harsh reality of their own imperfections. #principleoftheday
South Korean Kospi is up 22% in April and that's not because the economy is not affected by the Iran War but more due to the composition of the stock market.
The adage of the economy is not the stock market is especially true for South Korea's K-shaped economy. Kospi is most chips and exporting sectors while the domestic economy is big firms plus smaller firms and households as well as the government.
So what? Well, just look at Korea's terms of trade. Export price index is +28.7%YoY on higher chip prices and higher REFINED product exports (diesel, jet fuels etc) and so exporters (a lot of the KOSPI listed firms) benefit while IMPORTERS lose. Import prices rose 18.4%YoY in March and importers are households, smaller firms, energy-intensive firms etc.
In other words, the Korean economy is weakening from the war but the exporters are still benefiting thanks to the AI hardware boom.
GM everyone. Hopefully you had a nice extended weekend.
Now back at the charts, and what to watch this week
#RBNZ rate decision-can be supportive for NZD vs others
#FED minutes (likely not that important because on latest meeting, FED was missing a lot of important data for March)
#US CPI & China CPI (both on Friday)
For now oil is testing resistance, but SPX looks like it can see some new support after some near-term setback. Any move up will be a war-related move rather than "data"
Regarding data, DXY and yields is what we shall track. And looking at Dollar; is not done yet I think- I see a triangle, so run to cash still the best scenario, especially with 3.4% expected yearly inflation in the US, up from 2.4%.
Its not a question of whether inflation is coming up with how much!
So CB cuts are done, and the market is pricing that in.
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Good hunting this week.
#DXY #CPI #inflation #oil #fx